Change Has Got to Be in the Wind

So I get why Paul Maurice is riding his big horses hard these days. It may be counter-productive to the long-term needs of the franchise, but coaches are paid to win and players are paid to at least want to win.

I'm okay with all of that.

But soon, probably in the next week, the Maple Leafs are going to be all but mathematically eliminated from post-season play. Right now, with eighth place Philly on pace for 91 points, the Leafs need 12 wins in their final 14 games to just have a shot of making it, which is a mega-longshot for a team of players that has traditionally been satisfied with winning just enough to keep people of their backs.

Of those 14 games, 10 are against teams currently in possession of Eastern Conference playoff berths. Of the other four, three are against ninth place Buffalo, and one is against the Islanders, who are currently three points ahead of the Leafs.

I told you they weren't going to make it two months ago, and it's obvious to any reasonable person they aren't going to make it now.

But Maurice is paid to win, not be reasonable, so he keeps trying to win.

But when the Leafs get to the point - probably next week - when they have to run the rest of the table to get in to post-season play, it will be time for Cliff Fletcher to tell Maurice to call off the dogs and get serious about getting into a good lottery position.

As of today, the Leafs are 25th overall, just outiside of the top five lottery positions, and thus, just outside of having a shot at Steven Stamkos and the No. 1 selection.

Remember, last year Chicago went from fifth to first in the lottery, but that also means the odds are against it happening again. The two top positions are solidly in the possession of L.A. and Tampa Bay, so No. 3 in the lottery, currently held by Atlanta, is the best the Leafs can hope for.

But they've got to get there.

Right now, Maurice continues to use Vesa Toskala every game, and he doesn't appear too interested in playing the kids. Against the Devils on Tuesday, Jeremy Williams and Kris Newbury both got less than three minutes of ice time, while Jiri Tlusty played 6:28. Kyle Wellwood, mired in a horrible season, was allotted more than 15 minutes.

Playing Andrew Raycroft every third game and letting the kids play a regular shift isn't throwing in the towel, exactly, and that's what Maurice should be asked to do once the team gets to the must-win-every-game point.

Otherwise, counter-productive could become costly.

Comments

[Patrick]

"I told you they weren't going to make it two months ago, and it's obvious to any reasonable person they aren't going to make it now."

Damien, I overwhelmingly agree with your points when it comes to this team, but the above statement comes of just a wee bit petty. Don't let the large numbers of irrational Leafs fans' evaluations drag you down.

[Michael]

Hi. I totally agree with you. I also believed they're out of the playoff picture long time ago but they always seems to make a run and then fade away again. It seems like they want to barely miss the playoff so they can have a early vacation and people can get off the back so they can say "hey, we almost make the playoff and we had some injuries too. maybe, we're just 1-2 players away".

I just don't want to hear those excuse anymore and those veterans are not the answer for the Stanley cup. We want the cup and not just making the playoffs. They have no chance whatsoever. We have to blow up the current roster and build from young players. We need to lose more now so we can have a chance to get Steven Stamkos.

Can Fletcher do something now to force them to lose more to get a good position in the draft?

[Tim]

I guess all those guys who bought tickets should be happy just to be there rather than watching a team doing its best to win.

[Matt]

"Remember, last year Chicago went from fifth to first in the lottery, but that also means the odds are against it happening again."

Actually, previous lotteries would have no bearing on this year's, and the 5th ranked team would have an equal chance of shooting up to 1st as Chicago did last year.

[BDH]

Remember, last year Chicago went from fifth to first in the lottery, but that also means the odds are against it happening again.

Point taken, and I could be wrong here, but I think that last part about it not happening again is at least mathematically not correct.

[paul]

"..the odds are against it happening again.."

Are you saying there's a rule in the draft lottery that changes the odds based on last year's results, or that the coin is more likely to be heads because it was tails last time? The former seems like a silly idea and the latter is just nonsense.

[peter harlam]

this nonesense should have been shut down over a month ago when cliff fletcher was brought in...he failed...if he wasnt gonna sack paul maurice he should have sat the guy down and told him how it is or hit the road right then....its rediculous...managemant and the coaching staff are not on the same page here...it was obvious this team was not gonna make the playoffs then or most definetly now....why wait till next week...the process stars now...this organisation needs to get lucky and land a steven stamkos...followed by clearing the decks of the fab 5 coupled with some smart trading in the summer to acquire another young star from a team that has a few and cant keep them all....like maybe a jeff carter from philadelphia..or maybe a jordan staal from pittsburgh

[Andrew]

The fact that Chicago went from 5th to 1st last year in the lottery doesn't mean that the odds are against it happening again this year... They are mutually exclusive events. That is like saying after rolling a die once and getting a six, you are less likely to roll another six with a 2nd die. That is untrue. The chance of rolling a six on the 2nd die is still 1/6. Sure, it is less likely to roll two sixes in a row than a six and anything else, but once the first event happens, the 2nd event is independent of the first and the odds are the same.

But granted.... the odds that the Leafs would go from 5th to 1st are still not that good (in fact, there is a greater chance of the Leafs falling from 5th position to 6th position than moving up to 1st). But this probability is not affected by the fact that Chicago did it last year.

[Wilfred Laurier]

Hey Coxie...if the lotto 6/49 numbers were 12/14/19/22/33/16 today, tomorrow what are the odds of them being the same? The exact same as they were today. Yeah, the leafs probably won't go from fifth place in the draft to first, but they are the same odds.

[onitnas]

"Remember, last year Chicago went from fifth to first in the lottery, but that also means the odds are against it happening again."

While you have great hockey acumen, you've displayed your statistical naivete here. What happened at last year's lottery has no bearing on this year's lottery. The chance of a fifth-to-first pick this year is the same as last year.

Look at it this way, I roll a die and a one comes up. There was a one in six chance for that to happen. If I roll it again, there is still a one in six chance that a one will come up again, regardless of what happened on the first roll.

Bottom line, Leafs aren't making the playoffs, and I have absolutely no confidence in their draft selection capabilities.

[Roberto Calazar]

Mathematically, the fact Chicago moved from 5th to 1st in the lottery last year has nothing to do with what would happen this year, any more than tossing heads on a coin would mean the next toss would likely be tails.
Please, get your facts straight.

[Saul Bottcher]

"Remember, last year Chicago went from fifth to first in the lottery, but that also means the odds are against it happening again."

Sorry, this is NOT how probability works. If you flip a quarter 100 times and it comes up heads every time, the chance of it coming up heads the next time is still 50%.

Thus, the odds of a given team moving up in the lottery this year are exactly the same as they are every year.

(Yes, I know it's not the key point of your article, but the inaccuracy still chafes.)

[Neil]

"Remember, last year Chicago went from fifth to first in the lottery, but that also means the odds are against it happening again. "

Just to clarify, the odds are exactly the same this year as they were last year. The likelihood of the event occurring is rare but the odds don't change from year to year.

[Steve Breen]

Hello Damien:
Re your cooments on the Leafs throwin in the towel? Yes I agree with you some what, in order to get a better position in the draft lottery they cannot keep winning. However;
I also beleive they need to stop playing the "old boys" and see what talent they have with younger players.
On another note if fans keep buying tickets, the Leafs will never get the message that it is time to really change the organization.
Thanks
Steve Breen

[Mike]

Damien - perhaps this is picking nits, but your comment "Remember, last year Chicago went from fifth to first in the lottery, but that also means the odds are against it happening again." is not accurate. They are independent events from a statistical perspective. The odds of the fifth lottery team pulling down the first overall pick is the same every year regardless of what happened in any other year.

[PPP]

"I told you they weren't going to make it two months ago, and it's obvious to any reasonable person they aren't going to make it now."

HAHAHAHA Damien, you said that before the New Year had even arrived. There were still about 40 games left in the season and it was a ridiculous statement when you made it. You just said it to get a response to your blog.

When you again repeat it in March rather than December it makes sense.

[Dave Wong]

"Remember, last year Chicago went from fifth to first in the lottery, but that also means the odds are against it happening again."

Not to be nit-picky, but last year's results has no effect on this year's draft. The odds are the same (just as difficult as last year).

"Playing Andrew Raycroft every third game and letting the kids play a regular shift isn't throwing in the towel, exactly, and that's what Maurice should be asked to do once the team gets to the must-win-every-game point."

I agree with you. At some point soon, the organization will have to draw the line and start doing as you've suggested. Making the playoffs is a lofty goal at this point - the Leafs just need to determine how much they are willing to give up in the draft to try and reach that goal. It wouldn't hurt to play the kids more.

[Keep it Real]

Innuendos to have the Leafs lose for simply getting a better chance at the draft lottery is shocking; especially coming from a “reputable” hockey columnist.

What ever happened to ethics and the integrity of the game? I thought the point of every professional sporting event is to play, as a team, to your highest ability with the end result of winning. Imagine the potential impacts on the league if every team that is not within playoff contention decided to hold-back and primarily play their second/third string lines. What’s next – Teams choosing which of their adversaries they play their ‘big guns’ against to possible help another team push forward in the standings?

Again, my opinion is not in support of the Leafs making the playoffs as much as it is in preserving the integrity of the glorious game we call hockey.

[Sean]

"Remember, last year Chicago went from fifth to first in the lottery, but that also means the odds are against it happening again."

This doesn't make sense. What happens last year doesn't increase or decrease the odds - it has nothing to do with what will happen this year.

As far as Maurice, he's clearly coaching for his next job, not for the longterm good of the team. Just like Ferguson was GMing to get an extension. Just like everyone on this team is in business for themselves these days.

[Chris]

"Remember, last year Chicago went from fifth to first in the lottery, but that also means the odds are against it happening again."

Its been a while since I took Probability and Statistics, but should the odds not still be 1/5 that the 5th place team wins the lottery? Last year's result has no direct impact on this year.

No?

[Chris]

Now, what are the odds that two different readers would quote the exact same line of text, and make the same point, in a matter of 2 minutes? :)

[Andrew]

Hey Damien
As a math teacher, I had to take issue with one part of your blog. The fact that Chicago went from 5th to 1st last year has no bearing whatsoever on whether or not it happens this year, since they are independent events. The 5th place team has the same probability of winning the lottery in any given year, given that the format of the lottery remains the same.

[Dave Stacey]

Even if I could buy into your philosophy which makes a travesty of the games to be played, and calls upon the whole organization to adopt a complete lack of integrity, I would be hard pressed to think it was acceptable to have an organization put in any less than a full effort while there are paying patrons in the seats.

I am not sure when you last paid for your seat, but I can tell you that when I pay for a seat and see a game where the Leafs lose, it really sucks. If I pay for a seat where the organizatoin has sanctioned less than a full effort, then I want my money back.

It takes integrity and honour to want to ice the best product because the fans have paid good money for it. It is a travesty to do otherwise.

[tim]

Sayeth Cox: "Remember, last year Chicago went from fifth to first in the lottery, but that also means the odds are against it happening again."

The odds of a team moving from fifth to first are exactly the same this year as they were before Chicago did it, unless the NHL has introduced some new rule to prevent it.

[dafydd]

Don't tell me you are joining Tank Nation as well - play the kids and Raycroft, sure, but that does not necessarily mean failure to win. The pressure is off! See under: Jean-Sebastien Aubin, spring 2006.