Change Has Got to Be in the Wind

So I get why Paul Maurice is riding his big horses hard these days. It may be counter-productive to the long-term needs of the franchise, but coaches are paid to win and players are paid to at least want to win.

I'm okay with all of that.

But soon, probably in the next week, the Maple Leafs are going to be all but mathematically eliminated from post-season play. Right now, with eighth place Philly on pace for 91 points, the Leafs need 12 wins in their final 14 games to just have a shot of making it, which is a mega-longshot for a team of players that has traditionally been satisfied with winning just enough to keep people of their backs.

Of those 14 games, 10 are against teams currently in possession of Eastern Conference playoff berths. Of the other four, three are against ninth place Buffalo, and one is against the Islanders, who are currently three points ahead of the Leafs.

I told you they weren't going to make it two months ago, and it's obvious to any reasonable person they aren't going to make it now.

But Maurice is paid to win, not be reasonable, so he keeps trying to win.

But when the Leafs get to the point - probably next week - when they have to run the rest of the table to get in to post-season play, it will be time for Cliff Fletcher to tell Maurice to call off the dogs and get serious about getting into a good lottery position.

As of today, the Leafs are 25th overall, just outiside of the top five lottery positions, and thus, just outside of having a shot at Steven Stamkos and the No. 1 selection.

Remember, last year Chicago went from fifth to first in the lottery, but that also means the odds are against it happening again. The two top positions are solidly in the possession of L.A. and Tampa Bay, so No. 3 in the lottery, currently held by Atlanta, is the best the Leafs can hope for.

But they've got to get there.

Right now, Maurice continues to use Vesa Toskala every game, and he doesn't appear too interested in playing the kids. Against the Devils on Tuesday, Jeremy Williams and Kris Newbury both got less than three minutes of ice time, while Jiri Tlusty played 6:28. Kyle Wellwood, mired in a horrible season, was allotted more than 15 minutes.

Playing Andrew Raycroft every third game and letting the kids play a regular shift isn't throwing in the towel, exactly, and that's what Maurice should be asked to do once the team gets to the must-win-every-game point.

Otherwise, counter-productive could become costly.

Comments

[Mike Hammond]

Damien, I'm in full agreement with you, but the problem is Maurice is coaching for his life here. How likely is he to go along with orders to ease up on the throttle, even after the season's been lost? If he's dead in the water as Leafs coach, which I feel he rightfully is, and you're going to concede and start playing kids and call-ups, you might as well start by replacing him now with someone who knows he has a company job to do, on an understood interim basis, who'll do what's best for the team, as opposed to himself. In hockey, excellence and complete failure have their rewards; mediocrity doesn't.

[Dave Stacey]

In Damien's defence, for all the statisticians in the group, I believe that he is advocating that the Leafs get themselves into a position where they get the maximum number of balls in the lottery in order to maximize their odds of selecting the first draft pick overall. The fact remains that although the odds are the same this year of going from 5th to 1st as they were last year,the odds are against it.

[Dave A]

Hi,
Very un ethical suggestion on your part. Basically what you are saying is "Throw the odd game". Shame on you for even thinking it.
They are other more legit end proper ways to become winners.

[Alex A.]

Wow, math geeks here. I think the sentence was read wrong. when he said the lottery win is 'likely not to happen again', i think he's just still saying that being in 26th means you're not likely to get the pick (because you have an 8% chance i think).

so lets not get lost in a silly game of logic.

damien, while i think you're normally too hard on the team (but right), i'm glad to see you made your point this time while not completely smashing the team.

[Brian]

I can understand your point but these guys do have some pride left, it will be sickening to see another great Canadian hockey player go to another American club espically LA,
I do agree the Leafs should play the kids more and to see how is their development is going, but I am hoping the Leafs loose and loose big and maybe have a great chance at that number 1 pick .

[Pete Nardi]

Hey 'Keep it Real', thanks for actually keeping it real. To all of those Stamkos dreamers out there, and that includes you Mr. Cox, let's all be reminded of what the former coach of the NY Jets said after one game...YOU PLAY TO WIN THE GAME! That's it. I watch every LEAF game with the hope that they will win that game...I want them to win each game because I want them to win the Cup. Yes, laugh if you will. But what will all of you be saying if we make it this year? Oh wait, we won't, because we're 6 points out of 8th and 8 points out of 7th. And you all know that we won't make it because....My point is that we have a leader and a team who believe that they can make it. Perhaps if we all cheer a little more loudly, they'll hear us. Last night's game was officiated by one of the worst refs in the NHL (Don Koharski). If he or the other ref had actually called the cross-check in the third period (the play right before NJ scored their 3rd goal), then perhaps the score would have been different. If we won last night, we would have been 4 points out...so would that change everyone's perception? There is more time left than most of you think.

[Bill]

I think Damien meant "what are the chances of that happening again?"
Bunch of nerds must be from Ottawa:look up rhetorical.
By the way the only team fined for intentionaly losing games
to get a high draft pick is Ottawa.
Result: Fined $100,000.00 and drafted Daigle #1
Who wants to be remembered for that?

[Matthew Booja]

This Leaf team is really making toronto fans sick.

But we've all got to accept that this season is a wash. The remainder of it doesn't really matter. Sundin will get a point per game. Toskala will get 30 wins (woo hoo). And the leafs will miss the playoffs.

They've screwed themselves out of a very high pick, although to their credit they haven't traded away their 1st rounder yet! That in itself is a good step!

Fletcher better buy out some of these 'frozen 5' in the off-season because as a core of a team, they are a joke. No chemistry, no leadership.

[Matthew Booja]

This Leaf team is really making toronto fans sick.

But we've all got to accept that this season is a wash. The remainder of it doesn't really matter. Sundin will get a point per game. Toskala will get 30 wins (woo hoo). And the leafs will miss the playoffs.

They've screwed themselves out of a very high pick, although to their credit they haven't traded away their 1st rounder yet! That in itself is a good step!

Fletcher better buy out some of these 'frozen 5' in the off-season because as a core of a team, they are a joke. No chemistry, no leadership.

(also... note all you math freaks. I have a math degree too, and if you were very smart you would realize that after 1 person corrects Damien that it's not necessary to lecture him 50 separate times... so please shut up about it now.)

[Steve]

Funny how you have changed your wording from what you were saying over the last month. Now you say only once they are mathematically out. As a "respected journalist" do you have to repent somehow to an all-mighty media deity when you change your mind because you are the first to pass judgment on or say “I told you so” when someone else does.

Either way, throw in the towel you say. Yeah that is just what the team and the NHL need to be known for, throwing games. If this wasn't your idea and MLSE came out and said mid season, "you know what fans, we are not going to win the cup so we are going to forfeit the rest of the season in order to improve our draft chances" you would be the first one all over them. You would come up with Shoeless Joe Jackson and 1919 Chicago Black Sox analogies until you were blue in the face.

Finishing last or 5th from last doesn't guarantee the Leafs anything. Sure we all want good draft picks but not at the expense of throwing games. Throwing games at any point in the season doesn't make sense, mid way through or with 14 to play. Fans at the Air Canada Center pay to watch NHL hockey, not AHL.

[KW Guy]

I think we need more people to comment on the probability of going from 5th to 1st. I just didn't see enough of those.

[stedon]

To get over the ridiculous "tanking" debate, how about a new way of determining the lottery odds. The best odds go to the non-playoff team with the best record over the last 20 games of the season? That way, everyone (playoff or non-playoff) has incentive to be giving 100% every game from beginning to end of the regular season, and it really complicates the trade deadline: does a non-playoff team want to trade away its best players for draft picks, when that might hurt their chance to get a high draft pick? To me, that would make this last couple of months of the season a lot more interesting and competitive.

[Sanj]

"I told you they weren't going to make it two months ago, and it's obvious to any reasonable person they aren't going to make it now."

Big deal!! I was saying this at the beginning of the season. How's that for a prediction!

BTW, the probability of going from 5th to ....... :-P

[Bruce]

Damien you're beginning to sound like a Leaf booster.
The Leaf's history in the draft is so bad it doesn't matter where they finish. They've never made good draft picks.

[Ted]

I had to post this here because I couldn't get the email option to work on your artcile "Anti-visor crowd should take their blinkers off".

You CONVENIENTLY fail to mention that the reduced high-sticking infraction numbers also coincide with the "new nhl" zero tolerance calling on stickwork/clutchgrab.

Players are cutting back on their hooks, clutches, high sticks etc because they're frustratingly called on it 9/10 times. And for the record, I'm still opposed to the new nhl penalty calling format of "call something rather than nothing", unlike most of you bandwagon goal-bonanza fans.

[JohnnyD.]

Wow, I was going to write something about your comment about the Leafs (or anyone) being less likely to go from 5th to 1st in the lottery this year because it happened last year, but it seems many have beat me to it. Glad to see there are so many math wiz's reading the sports section. (more than I can say for those writing the sport section- ha ha :-))

Anyway, I agree with you. I've read too many stories about the Leafs making a playoff run because they've won a few games lately. They were six points back two weeks ago and they're still six points back today. Maurice has got to think about next year. Oh, and fire Richard Peddie!

[Paul]

Shame on you. What a denigration of the very idea and purpose of sports. A race for last. It's like teaching your kid how to cheat with a "good penalty".

So it really doesn't matter to you how you play the game. And people talk about 'what's wrong with pro sports, or the world'. it's values like this that people slither into. Shame on you.

P Boire

[Michael]

Lots of people said in here that the leafs draft history is so bad and it doesn't matter what position they finish. I will only agree half of that. They did draft badly and that's the reason why they have to get the top 2 picks in my opinion because I think every year there's like 1-2 players that are clearly to be No 1 overall to become a star in the league. And outside of that they just don't know who to pick. So get the 1st pick.

[VIRUS227]

The fact that Chicago won the lottery last year from the 5th position has no bearing on the odds of the #5 team moving up to 1st this year. But of course a smart guy like Damien already knows that. p

[Mark]

Damien this team wasn't going to win anything from the first day of the season. It should tank, and if the players want to continue this game with fans than the following should happen. The "5" need to go, so sorry mats it was nice having you but it's time for change. Kaberle should be in philly by august and Jeff Carter would look pretty good in the blue and white ( don't say this is mpossible, b/c it almost happened but kabby blocked the trade). Kubina in my books should be traded to the oilers, he denied a trade to sunny san jose, so now freeze in edmonton on a even worse team than the leafs. Mccabe wants to go to New York, I say ship him to the farthest city from new york....San Jose, or the ducks seem like good possibilities to me. Tucker what to do with him, hmmm I think the marlies need some grit...I'd say ship him down to the minors after offering him a trade to anywhere for a bag of pucks and a smile.

[jim]

Damien, we've learned today that "a large percentage of your readers are math nerds". Correct that - "a large percentage of readers willing to respond to your blog are math nerds". I wouldn't want the math nerds to correct me too.

[Robert Liddell]

For all you guys saying that where they finish in the draft doesn't matter because they don't know how to draft.Think again the leafs have made some great picks over the years. Clark, McDonald,Courtnall just to name a few. The reason you think that is because they've traded away their picks for veteran players for almost 2 decades now.When a team is making their first pick in the 3rd,or 4th round like the Leafs usually are you end up with a team full of crummy veterans, with no prospects. Sound familiar !!!!

[Remi]

Listen Cox,
I don't agree with you at all.You have no brains for saying things that don't make sense.Paul Maurice knows what he's doing as for you,you are not very smart.Toronto has a chance of making the playoffs.They play hard every game and I hope that they win enough games in order to make the playoffs.

[JohnK]

I think it's just as insane to think the Leafs are going to get Stamkos as it is that the are going to make the playoffs. Maybe it's time to get off the players and coaching staff backs and start barking at the scouting staff. Just look at the NJ Devils and where they've drafted in the last 10yrs. I think there's nothing we can do but; play hard for the rest of the season, finish where we finish,hope we get a good draft pick,get rid of the 'Fab 4'....Sundin can stay, and we start next season in a winning fashion. And hope we get a few kind words from Mr.Cox!
IT'S ALL ABOUT SCOUTING

[Master of the obvious]

In related news, the sky is blue....