The Future, Always a Slippery Notion

Star Photo

Luke Schenn impresses as a rookie.

Ah, it's always fascinating to watch the Maple Leafs "build."

We're into, what, the sixth or seventh rebuilding phase since the '67 Cup triumph, and sometimes there's been the patience to at least try and do it right, and sometimes not.

Jim Gregory tried to do it right in 1970s until Punch Imlach tore it all down again.

In the 1980s, there was an attempt to draft high, keep the
kids and let them develop, but the organization and owner Harold Ballard were too unstable and it didn't work.

Now they say they're doing it again. But how much patience is there to do it right?

Clearly, Luke Schenn is a young blueline gem, perhaps the most impressive Leaf top draft pick to come along and show this well in his first Leaf camp since Wendel Clark in '85.

And he should still go back to junior if the Leafs want to do this right. But you can sense a little wavering on the part of the Leafs, a little wondering about, well, what if we keep the kid for just a while? You know, five or six games? What's the potential damage from that?

Anybody who believes that should go back and review the Luke Richardson saga. Similar stories, not the outcome the Leafs wanted.

Then comes a published report this morning that suggests the Leafs were willing to trade their 2009 first rounder on a conditional basis and a couple of prospects to Anaheim for Mathieu Schneider and youngster Bobby Ryan.

It's an interesting tidbit since Anaheim GM Brian Burke did say last week that he had such an offer, but didn't identify the team. He also acknowledged, however, that because of all the rumours swirling about his possible future in Toronto, the Leafs were a team with which he likely would not deal this season.

Given the nature of the deal, a salary cap swap involving huge futures, it would have been complicated and controversial if such a transaction had gone down between the Leafs and Ducks.

Gary Bettman would not be pleased.

But if the deal was out there, what does that say about Cliff Fletcher and his group? That they can't sit back and let the draft-and-develop process move along, but are already trying to accelerate it by moving first-round picks for players, although the '09 first rounder would certainly have been protected if it turned out to be a top five pick.

I've often suggested the Leafs need to declare a five-year moratorium on trading first-round picks just to let the situation stabilize. But they traded away their '07 pick, and this story suggests they're already looking to move the '09 pick.

It fits with the public pronouncements of chairman Larry Tanenbaum that being competitive every year, not just winning a Stanley Cup, is the goal.

Yes, it's always fascinating to watch the Leafs build.

(Ed. Note: Perhaps I didn't explain myself well enough, although by the comments today, its worth saying it is always amazing to see how willing many Leaf fans are to drink the koolaid and believe that this time the Leafs will build properly, even when its the same people who screwed it up before. To clarify, I have no problem with Bobby Ryan as a solid young prospect. Indeed, in this blog, you'll see above no criticism of Ryan whatsoever. But people will twist things how they want. When I questioned the wisdom of trading draft picks to move up and take Luke Schenn in June, some took that to mean I was ripping Schenn. People will take things the way they want to take things, and I accept. When it comes to this rumoured trade, here's the point, and why, if the Leafs were to try and make this kind of transaction, it amounts to trying to aggressively accelerate the rebuilding process rather than let the process proceed more gradually over time. Ryan, according to the current CBA, will now be a restricted free agent in 2010 - and possibly set for a significant salary hike - and an unrestricted free agent in 2014, just six years from now. Drafting high next June, meanwhile, means that the player the Leafs get wouldn't be restricted until 2012 at the earliest, and if the CBA remains unchanged, wouldn't be unrestricted until 2018, a full decade from now. If you make that move, you're trying to get better faster and get back to the playoffs faster. Waiting to draft next year, and the year after that, without trading them away in other deals, requires the kind of patience the Leafs seem never to have. That's the point. Hope you got it this time.)

Comments

[Jeff Brewer]

Damien,

You may be the absolute worst journalist in North America. You painted this story to make it appear that the Leafs would have been trading a 1st round pick for a 39 year-old defenceman. This is clearly not the case, but it allows you to bash another move by the Leafs, which you certainly cannot pass up. Bobby Ryan was a 1st round pick, and would help in the rebuilding process. Couple this with the fact that Fletch would have protected the pick if it was anything above 6th, this appears like it would have been a good deal. We don't know the prospects involved so it's difficult to fully speculate, but it would not have been a deviation from the rebuild, as you so "intelligently" proclaim.

[Conn Smythe]

'But if the deal was out there, what does that say about Cliff Fletcher and his group? That they can't sit back and let the draft-and-develop process move along, but are already trying to accelerate it by moving first round picks for players, although the '09 first rounder would certainly have been protected if it turned out to be a top five pick.'

***

[Peter Dawe]

Damien - I tend to normally agree but in this deal don't you have to compare what you'd get with the 2010 1st rounder to Bobby Ryan - a former #2 overall pick. That doesn't seem like an aggrengious damage to the rebuilding plan - especially if you could repackage Schneider onto a team like Pitt which needs defense help (and has cap room with the Gonchar injury)

[Jonathan]

Giving up a first round pick and some conditional prospects to get Bobby Ryan who by the way, was the second overall pick last year would not be step backwards in a rebuilding program. It's too bad that trade didn't happen.

[Pat Vaughan]

Damien, you have to start being realistic. We have Luke Schenn now. The Stanley Cup is within our grasp. Just one more piece to the puzzle and it will be ours to drink from. Who needs draft picks now when we are on the border's edge of the promise land ? My theory is if you have not traded away first round picks and NHL prospects for Matthieu Schneider at least twice in your General Manager career then you don't have a clue about hockey players and building winners; and by the way ... have I mentioned that I just swallowed a bottle of idiot pills ? This is a very dark age in Leafland. I just hope that RIM guy gets a team into southern Ontario so then hockey fans in the GTA will finally have a choice.

[randy patrick]

the leafs are what they are, regardless of what there preaching they want this team in the playoffs now,if there even close to a playoff spot they will abandon the plan and use up the cap space on guys 30 + without a doubt, i'm a foolish die hard but only time will tell

[Richard P]

Damien, sometimes a person gets so close to a subject that he loses all perspective and objectivity. It looks that has happened to you. You're using an unattributed report to slam the Leafs for their approach to rebuilding. As a member of the media surely you know how much value to place in rumours. I expect better from you.

[randy patrick]

the leafs are what they are, regardless of what there preaching they want this team in the playoffs now,if there even close to a playoff spot they will abandon the plan and use up the cap space on guys 30 + without a doubt, i'm a foolish die hard but only time will tell

[TraderCliff]

Bobby Ryan is only 21 years old, drafted 2nd overall and is regarded as a top prospect. He is ranked higher then any pick outside of the top five in this upcoming draft would have so what would be wrong if the Leafs had of done that deal (depending on the Leafs prospects who were never mentioned going to Anahiem)?

[mark]

Unless the Leafs end up in the top 5 position of the first round I for one don't find the idea of trading that draft pick all that bad. Don't forget, Ryan is still very young and has significant upside (he may in the end justify the trade all by himself). It's also odd Damien that, in the same article no less, you say don't rush Shen... but don't pick up a guy like Schnieder either. What's wrong with picking up Schnieder for a year or two while your young prospect develops in Junior or in the minors? You have to play someone back there. You seem to have blinders on Damien. Rebuild doesn't necessarily mean hoard draft picks. Maybe that's why Fletch is an NHL GM and you are an ink stained wretch. Wretch vs. Fletch...get it?

[Rick Cottier]

Bobby Ryan for a 1st rounder would have been a good trade. There aren't too many prospects in the Leafs system that I wouldn't have thrown in the deal. A 1st rounder is valuable, but not as valuable as a young former first rounder who is now ready for the NHL. The pick is an unknown commodity while the player is a definite, long-tern asset

[Mo DiDonato]

Geez, I used to enjoy reading Damian on a daily basis, but what on Earth is his problem these days? He's all over the place with this team. JFJ handed out contracts to (Tucker, McCabe, Raycroft, Kubina) without thinking about the future...he traded a 1st round pick (Raask) for Raycroft?!?! Fletcher had no choice but to discard all of this mess and Cox gives him hell for moving up to get Schenn, giving up a couple of 3rds to add some players who can actually play over the next few years: Mayers et al...Damian you can't just promote the entire Marlies for a few years - WAKE UP! The Buds will have 12 new faces in the lineup this year - that is a 50% overhaul from the JFJ never made the playoffs regime...and Fletcher is not done yet.
Oh ya, and I doubt very seriously that he is willing to give up next year's pick, give the guy some credit he ridded the dressing room of the old, tired, stiffs - that is only step 1

[Jamie]

Damien, your comments regarding first round picks in this case don't hold water. This would need to be looked at as a Bobby Ryan for a 1st round pick type swap. In this case one would assume the "cost" would include picking up the anchor that is Schneider's salary, which one could only hope the Leafs would move for futures closer to the deadline. You only has to look at Waddell's fleecing of Burke to know that Schneider has no value league-wide at his current price tag so it can't be viewed that this would be an asset coveted by Trader Cliff. Adding Bobby Ryan to the fold doesn't hinder the team's development - only adds to it - even if the cost is a 1st rounder and one of their 6-through-9 type young defenceman (Schenn excepted of course). I'd take the (relatively) known Ryan over the unknown of a draft pick any day.

[Brian Evinou]

Outside of the top five picks its doubtfull there would be a prospect better than Bobby Ryan. I wouldnt call trading a unproven quantity like a +5 pick for a 21 year Bobby Ryan whos continuing to develp into a sure fire NHLer sacrificing the future of the franchise.

[Ryan]

"Clearly, Luke Schenn is a young blueline gem, perhaps the most impressive Leaf top draft pick to come along and show this well in his first Leaf camp since Wendel Clark in '85." ....So maybe trading up to get Shenn the Gem wasn't as bad of a move as you first suggested.

And as for the rumour of trading a (top 5 protected) 1st round pick for Schneider and Bobby Ryan, I'm pretty sure anyone with an ounce of hockey knowledge in their body would make that deal in a heartbeat. You give cap releif and a first rounder (6th or higher)and in return you get a 40 yo D man who could be top 4 on your roster as it stands right now and a 21 yo (yes 21, not 28) who went 2nd overall in '05 and has a pretty big upside?...Sign me up!!! In fact a team like Toronto who is short on quality forwards would be a good place for hime as what he really needs is substantial minutes in the NHL...not the AHL. Further, Mathieu Schneider is in the last year of his contract and would be pretty solid trade bait as the playoffs approach. I'm not sure what he would fetch, but I presume it would be a decent prospect/draft pic.

Its too bad that Schneider was dealt to atlanta and this rumoured trade did not happen. When you really look at the possible outcomes instead of Damien's shortsighted view which seems to be: trading away a draft pick for 40 yo and an unproven prospect, there is a lot more positive than negative.

[Repressed Optimism]

Because trading a first round pick (which could be as high as 10th) to get the second overall pick behind Sidney Crosby is a terrible idea.

It's a first for a first. Don't see the problem here. Schneider was price to pay and they have cap room to have hosted him until they found a suitor to trade with, say Atlanta.

[Dramer]

The leafs are a joke that doesn't stop being funny. They have been bad for a long time and there is no end in sight. They have very few decent prospects in the system and the young players on their current roster are below average. The only thing more comical are their delusional fans. I still hear the old chant ya wait until next year or in two years we will contend for the cup etc...that has been the party line since 1967. Funny how that average at best goaltender Tokusla is now a world class goaltender now he is in Toronto. Thank god for the Leafs, someone for the other teams to beat up on and pad their stats.

[Andy]

Shorter Cox: The stupid, amateur, MLSE/1967/profit machine/bilk the fans blah blah blah want to deal for a 21-year old former number 2 pick. Stupid fans! Stop watching Leaf games until they commit to a real youth movement, and stop acquiring over the hill 21 year olds.
I wish Coxy had actually addressed the substantive issue, rather than reverting to his cynical 1967 default setting, but tiger and stripes etc etc.
A top five protected pick for Schneider and Ryan? Good deal I think, contingent on Ryan developing into a bona fide top six power forward. He's 21, so Damien can't honestly argue that the Leafs are giving a first rounder away in a win now move, even though he would clearly step into the lineup now. Schneider's deal is up at the end of the year, so he becomes a much more attractive asset closer to the deadline.

[doug]

bobby ryan is still pretty young and full of promise - he might be worth a #7 or #8 pick overall - i don't think it would be that bad of a deal - grabbing a young potential top 6 forward is not giving up on rebuilding - on another note, if the leafs were willing to pick up schneider's salary (which would put them at the cap) - does that mean the leafs have given up on sundin?

[Cameron]

Hey Damien,

I don't think that 'potential' deal says anything more than the Leafs think Bobby Ryan has more upside than any 1st rounder above #5 in 2009. In addition, they have room under the cap so why not grab Schneider and turn him into another pick (likely a second or third rounder).

Surprising you didn't think of that logic but then you always do have your anti-Leaf glasses on.

[Merkin]

Unless you have seen Bobby Ryan play enough to have a valid opinion, I'm not so sure your criticism has any credibility.
Or if the Leafs do it is it therefore bad?
Seems to me a first round gamble > 5th vs. a second overall to Crosby pick with a more proven track record is a reasonable risk.
However, I can't say for sure because I've never seen him play. Have you?

[John Hunt]

It is incredible to think that an organization that has done so much to squander the goodwill of its fans would pull a stunt to trade its no 1 pick in 2009 for Bobby Ryan and Mathieu Schneider. If the Leafs trade that pick, I don't care if it is for the original cast of the Last Supper, I am done with them once and for all.

Would Bobby Ryan, 2nd overall in 2005 behind Crosby, not be a better investment in the future than a protected 1st round pick?? Don't make it seem that Schneider is what the Leafs are after. Ryan is a top notch prospect and would instantly become the best forward prospect in the system, by far. Seems like a solid rebuilding move if you ask me.

[Steve]

What scares me is the Fact Toronto is shopping the first round 09 pick maybe top 5 .They will end up not getting Ryan and settle for a 35 year old vertern like they did in the past .

[Cox is anti-Leaf and anti-Canadian]

You win in this league with STARS surrounded by good role players and strong goal-tending.

Ryan + Schenne would have been perfect.

Cox only wants to rip the Leafs and try to convince us that we should rely on some Swede who Cox has never seen play or a Czech who might get Cox's editor to pay for another freebie trip to Europe.