The Future, Always a Slippery Notion

Star Photo

Luke Schenn impresses as a rookie.

Ah, it's always fascinating to watch the Maple Leafs "build."

We're into, what, the sixth or seventh rebuilding phase since the '67 Cup triumph, and sometimes there's been the patience to at least try and do it right, and sometimes not.

Jim Gregory tried to do it right in 1970s until Punch Imlach tore it all down again.

In the 1980s, there was an attempt to draft high, keep the
kids and let them develop, but the organization and owner Harold Ballard were too unstable and it didn't work.

Now they say they're doing it again. But how much patience is there to do it right?

Clearly, Luke Schenn is a young blueline gem, perhaps the most impressive Leaf top draft pick to come along and show this well in his first Leaf camp since Wendel Clark in '85.

And he should still go back to junior if the Leafs want to do this right. But you can sense a little wavering on the part of the Leafs, a little wondering about, well, what if we keep the kid for just a while? You know, five or six games? What's the potential damage from that?

Anybody who believes that should go back and review the Luke Richardson saga. Similar stories, not the outcome the Leafs wanted.

Then comes a published report this morning that suggests the Leafs were willing to trade their 2009 first rounder on a conditional basis and a couple of prospects to Anaheim for Mathieu Schneider and youngster Bobby Ryan.

It's an interesting tidbit since Anaheim GM Brian Burke did say last week that he had such an offer, but didn't identify the team. He also acknowledged, however, that because of all the rumours swirling about his possible future in Toronto, the Leafs were a team with which he likely would not deal this season.

Given the nature of the deal, a salary cap swap involving huge futures, it would have been complicated and controversial if such a transaction had gone down between the Leafs and Ducks.

Gary Bettman would not be pleased.

But if the deal was out there, what does that say about Cliff Fletcher and his group? That they can't sit back and let the draft-and-develop process move along, but are already trying to accelerate it by moving first-round picks for players, although the '09 first rounder would certainly have been protected if it turned out to be a top five pick.

I've often suggested the Leafs need to declare a five-year moratorium on trading first-round picks just to let the situation stabilize. But they traded away their '07 pick, and this story suggests they're already looking to move the '09 pick.

It fits with the public pronouncements of chairman Larry Tanenbaum that being competitive every year, not just winning a Stanley Cup, is the goal.

Yes, it's always fascinating to watch the Leafs build.

(Ed. Note: Perhaps I didn't explain myself well enough, although by the comments today, its worth saying it is always amazing to see how willing many Leaf fans are to drink the koolaid and believe that this time the Leafs will build properly, even when its the same people who screwed it up before. To clarify, I have no problem with Bobby Ryan as a solid young prospect. Indeed, in this blog, you'll see above no criticism of Ryan whatsoever. But people will twist things how they want. When I questioned the wisdom of trading draft picks to move up and take Luke Schenn in June, some took that to mean I was ripping Schenn. People will take things the way they want to take things, and I accept. When it comes to this rumoured trade, here's the point, and why, if the Leafs were to try and make this kind of transaction, it amounts to trying to aggressively accelerate the rebuilding process rather than let the process proceed more gradually over time. Ryan, according to the current CBA, will now be a restricted free agent in 2010 - and possibly set for a significant salary hike - and an unrestricted free agent in 2014, just six years from now. Drafting high next June, meanwhile, means that the player the Leafs get wouldn't be restricted until 2012 at the earliest, and if the CBA remains unchanged, wouldn't be unrestricted until 2018, a full decade from now. If you make that move, you're trying to get better faster and get back to the playoffs faster. Waiting to draft next year, and the year after that, without trading them away in other deals, requires the kind of patience the Leafs seem never to have. That's the point. Hope you got it this time.)

Comments

[Down Goes Brown]

Damien ,you wrote in January that "The overall strategy, don't forget, has to revolve around getting top five picks both in the 2008 and '09 entry drafts..."

The whole strategy revolves around top five picks. Got it.

Since then, the Leafs made a trade to move up to the top five and pick Luke Schenn, a deal you've criticized at every opportunity.

Now they try to make a deal to get a former #2 overall pick, while protecting themselves specifically against the possibility of losing a top five pick. And you don't like that deal.

If we didn't know any better, we all might assume that you're just going to automatically hate every deal Fletcher and the Leafs make.

[Peter]

Damien, even with the benefit of your Ed Note, I have to agree with the comments that you have built all this on a rumour. IF it was true you might have a point (if so, tell us). I would not argue with the logic & mechanics of re-building as you set it out, but all you have done here is thump Fletcher for something you think he might have done given not just his, but every other Leaf GM's behaviour in the last 40 years. Come on, you can do better

[Dave May]

Is it possible you're over-analyzing here? If you believe Bobby Ryan, a 21 year old who was drafted 2nd overall and is widely believed to be a future superstar, is superior to anything that you might get in the coming draft and the deal is further sweetened by the ability to flip Schneider now or at the deadline, why wouldn't you do this deal?

Oh, right - that doesn't fit in with your conclusion.

[Hockey Fan, therefore by Definition Not a Leaf Fan]

Yawn.

Mr. Cox, please.

Another article about how the Laffs are an awful organization. And the sky will still be blue tomorrow and water wet, and Laff fans will still be sheep or lemmings, take your pick.

Could we please have an article about any of the other 4 teams within driving distance of the ACC? Will Ottawa manage to ice a contender after last year's meltdown? Is this the Habs' year? Is Buffalo on the way up, or down? Can the Detroit dynasty continue? What are the chances of the RIM Predators existing in 2 years?

There are many, many hockey fans in the GTA who have ZERO interest in this joke of an organization called MLSE. How about catering to them for a change? They clearly have more intelligence than the average Laff fan.

[Chris]

What difference does it make wether he was the second pick after Crosby?

Pat Falloon was chosen in between Lindros and Niedermayer. Does that make him the same type of player? Bobby Ryan is no more a sure thing than Gilbert Brule is or Benoit Pouliot.

The point that Cox is trying to make is that they are ONCE AGAIN trying to accelerate the process.

Keep drinking the Kool-Aid and insult the guy who has been right 95% of the time. He has criticized the Leafs for years and the Leafs have NEVER proven him wrong.

[ed]

Your whole column is based on 'IF' the leafs were to make this trade . No confirmation it was even a possibility . YOU DREAM THE WHOLE THING AND THEN CRITISIZE THE THE LEAFS FOR DOING 'NOTHING'!!!! This is not reporting/writing This is 'muckracing'--bring your own muck .

[Tim]

It seems Damien's way of rebuilding is to have a really bad team for 5 years so you can stockpile top draft picks and young talent who would not actually be allowed to play in the NHL because they would prevent the accumulation of even more top draft picks.
Good thinking, Damien. Who do you root for?

[Tim]

I get the feeling that if Fletcher could hasten the rebuilding by making a couple of Gilmour for Leeman trades, you would complain because they didn't do it completley by tanking first and rebuilding for 5 years.
There are more than one way to rebuild and not all of them require being useless for 5 years like Pittsburgh was.

[m smith]

hmmm...ryan an ufa in 2014? this is bad? that's 6 YRS from now! if we start rebuilding now, things should be getting quite good 4-5 years from now, and they would have LOTS of cap room, as rebuilding teams do. how anyone can rip trading a top 5-protected pick for ryan and a player to be flipped is unbelievable. how does he have a blog? maybe the toronto star can hire someone with actual insight rather than someone who just seems to have a personal vendetta against the leafs. always so negative. the Rask-Raycroft trade...rip to shreds. the move up to get schenn and the attempt to nab ryan, very smart imo.

[jp]

most of what COX rights is anti leaf, gossip with little analysis...but in this case, if this rumour is true, he is 100% right....

[b-train]

Goodness Damien, can we try another angle for once? I think we're all sick of you attacking all things blue and white just for the sake of it. We're all frustrated by this mess, but how about some objectivity? Seriously, your argument is that Ryan will be unrestricted sooner than a pick would be? Right, cause the Leafs are having so much trouble fitting all that talent under the cap. If the kid shows signs, you lock him up mid to long term. It's better than having half your roster become unrestricted at the same time. Ryan for a 6th to 10th overall is a smart move, plus Schneider would have brought another pick at the deadline. 'Down goes Brown' said it best, these moves (Schenn, Ryan) are designed to retain and/or obtain top 5 picks - just like you demanded they do last season.

[Marty]

Damien is a good reporter - has a good grasp of the english language - and I assume - is a fairly intelligent individual. What irks me - is that he never has a good thing to say about the Leafs - nothing they do is right - and I'd assume - in a coin flip situation - whatever move the Leafs make - Damien would make a point to illustrate it was the wrong move. I understand it sells papers - and raises your profile - but come on Damien - give them some credit some time. There are other reports in Toronto - who are quite popular - that are not always down on the Leafs for each and every move. Try it once - make us all happy.

[nugentmania]

Damien's correct, and here is some logical perspective to an otherwise unexplainable, hypothetical concern in Leafland.

Take the premise as is.....if the Leafs can flip Schneider for a 2nd rounder, to say..Atlanta (a high 2nd rounder if the Thrashers fail to make the playoffs), then it's a 1st rounder for Bobby Ryan plus a 2nd rounder. Understanding the caveat that the pick can be no better than a 6th overall choice, what weight do you give that? The face of a franchise can be found at 6th overall (Ryan Smyth), with no evidence that smart drafting finds these for you (Edmonton took Jason Bonsignore 2 picks earlier at 4th overall).

The real zinger? Bring all the GM's back to the table right now and re-do the 2005 entry draft. My two cents?

1. Sidney Crosby 2. Anze Kpoitar 3. Carey Price 4. Paul Statsny 5. Jack Johnson (with defenceman taking longer to develop).

I don't think Bobby Ryan was a 6th overall pick in his own draft year. Neither was the actual 6th pick, Gilbert Brule. The irony for the Leafs that they did very well with Tuukka Rask at 17th. Not sure where I'd slot Raycroft in the 2005 draft.

[Will]

I still think that would have been a great deal as Schnieder would have been great trade bait come trade deadline and could have ended up with potentially another first round pick or a prospect. Plus, Ryan is a high first round pick, which could probably be better than next years.

[Sandeep Kembhavi]

Monsieur Cox,

Your editor’s note was equal parts ridiculous and condescending. I think you enjoy using your blog to on occasion publicly bicker with your readers – with whom you share a two-way love-hate relationship – and that’s totally fine. It’s good sport for us all. And on that note, here are my two cents.

First, I must express disbelief at your expression of disbelief. You say that you can’t get your head around the fact that people believe that the Leafs have a chance of rebuilding in a meaningful way. But would you rather we all write the whole thing off as a farce from the get-go, like you seem to take such pleasure in doing? As you say, people will see what they want to see. That’s why you somehow manage to put a totally negative, buzz-killing spin on everything, and many of the rest of us try to focus on the encouraging signs, of which there are at least some. That’s called optimism, Mr. Cox, and having a little isn’t the worst thing in the world. Nor does it mean you’re a total idiot, as you seem to repeatedly insinuate. My advice to you is to try a little swig of the kool-aid yourself. Swirl it around in your mouth just to see what it tastes like. It comes in many flavours, and is quite refreshing on a hot day.

Also remember that just because some of the current hockey minds that weren’t able to turn the Leafs into a champion in the past – including Mr. Draft Schmaft himself – doesn’t mean they automatically have no chance now or in the future. People do learn from their mistakes and use their experiences to get ‘er done the next time around. Since when as it unheard of to give someone a second chance? Without a doubt there are aspects of Leafs’ organization that are out of whack, but not enough to preclude the good people – both on and off the ice – from making smart moves that pay off.

And now on to the ‘condescending’ part. Your point about Bobby Ryan becoming a free agent sooner than a freshly-drafted player would is a good and valid observation that I hadn’t really considered. It also explains why it pays off to be patient, to an extent, when rebuilding. The problem is that it’s not the point you made. You didn’t even allude to it in your original post. So to then add an editor’s note ridiculing the puny intellects of the dissenters who somehow failed to understand the pure logic of the point that you didn’t make is just a little insulting.

Insulting, but still good sport for us all. And now back to you.

[FRT]

I'm just amazed that Mathieu Schneider is still playing? I guess he is the "new" Chelios! Hell...he was with the Leafs when Burns first coached...we don't need him back. And say what you want about Bobby Ryan...but he is as just un-proven as John Tavares is when it comes to playing in the NHL. He could bust or boom once he gets his shot...and isn't it kind of curious that Burke has been trying to move him since he drafted him? STICK TO THE DRAFT PLAN FOR ONCE IN YOUR LIFE FLETCH! A blue-chipper is guaranteed come next June!

[Vorak The Toaster]

Hopefully, Damien reads this and concurs:

Mathieu Schneider was terribly defensively when the Leafs had him. He made Todd Gill look like an All-Star AND as I recall he had a kind of snooty attitude, which is something the Leafs don't need in their dressing room. Today, he is now even more decrepit and we don't need his salary dead weight on top of everything else. Sounds exactly like a carefully pre-thought Fletcher move. LOL. Ryan? I'd want to see what else is out there before annointing him Leaf saviour of the week.

[DGL]

There is some truth to what he writes about here. Contracts and the timing of those contracts and RFA, UFA under the salary cap are slowly proving to be a huge part of building a good team. Look at Pittsburg, next year they are under the gun and the salary cap, and are slowly going to lose players, unless, they pull off a couple of Detroit moves.
Why doesn't anyone mention the contracts other teams have given the 3 dmen drafted ahead of Schenn? Are they that much better than Schenn that their teams are not "ruining" those players? I don't see anywhere else in the NHL that this is a concern but in Toronto, where I"m sure you all debate what cereal Schenn eats in the morning. Players are much better prepared today, more mature, more physically fit than they ever were back in the 80's. Now they have lessons for players on how to cook and eat properly, go figure, Wendel didn't get those classes I'm sure! There are plenty of people to watch Schenn to be sure bad things don't happen.