Thursday Mail Bag

So I’m thinking the next time the phone rings in the Toronto Marlies dressing room, Justin Pogge will answer and say, “Nah, I’m fine where I am. But thanks for thinking of me, Mr. Burke!”

DAVID DUPREY/AP

Pogge gets peppered ... again.

Man oh man, is this kid getting a rough introduction to the NHL. Lesson One, apparently, is never to count on anyone on your team having even the faintest idea how to defend. It’s like Pogge won a raffle, and first prize was a game in net for the Leafs.

Second prize? TWO games in net for the Leafs.

It was nice for the Leafs to let Thomas Vanek get a hat trick without even having to sweat, and yes indeed, that was a sweet move Drew Stafford made on Mike Van Ryn the night after the player for whom Van Ryn was acquired, Bryan McCabe, scored the OT winner for Florida against the Leafs.

Hey, NHL teams are going to look bad from time to time. But everybody knows the toughest game for any team is the home game after an extended road trip - as Buffalo was last night - yet the Leafs showed little interest in jumping on the Sabres and perhaps picking up a surprise two points. That was a pathetic effort.

So how much do we know about Pogge now that he has three NHL games under his belt? Just a little bit more than was known before. His size and obvious athleticism certainly make you believe he has a chance. There are times when he just seems a bit messy and out of control, as though he has no particular game plan but is reacting to every moment as though it were a brand new situation. If there’s progress, it’s minimal, but it’s still worth giving him more starts this season. Hey, the Leafs already know they’re going to have to get a goaltender next summer, and Pogge is going to be part of the picture somehow.

Between Pogge, Vesa Toskala and Curtis Joseph, Leaf goaltenders have the worst save percentage in the NHL, intriguing given that one of Cliff Fletcher’s moves during the off-season was to fire goaltending coach Steve McKichan and replace him with Corey Hirsch. McKichan had grown rather weary of being ignored anyway, but when you examine the performance of the Leafs and of their coaching staff, it’s hard on the basis of the evidence at hand to believe Hirsch was an upgrade. Certainly, Toskala has only gone backwards.

Just 30 games to go in this dreadful Leaf season. Now on to this week’s mail bag:

Q: Perhaps a bit premature but seeing that the Leafs are rebuilding it’s probably going to get worse before it’s going to get better. As a 43-year-old I have experienced some horrible years as a Toronto fan. It was so desperate that one of my heros in the early 80’s was Rocky Saganiuk ( I still have the jersey) Obviously there was not much to cheer for in those days.

So my question is since the Leafs made it deep in the playoffs in the mid ‘70s against the Islanders when Lanny McDonald scored in overtime, what year do you think the Leafs iced their worst team and why. I ask why because I don’t believe the least amount of points necessarily dictates their worst team.

Glen McMinn, Halifax

A: Well this is a different question. I’ve seen awful Leaf teams that quit and pretty good ones that played way below expectations. I’ve covered the team since 1989, so I’ll restrict myself to the squads of the past 20 years. I would say the Tom Watt-coached clubs of 1990-91 and 1991-92 were the worst I’ve seen, with the caveat that partway through the ‘91-92 campaign Doug Gilmour was acquired in that blockbuster deal with Calgary and changed the entire team. But for a season-and-a-half, the Leafs under Watt were horrible, a continuation of the decline that had started under Doug Carpenter after the optimism briefly generated by the team Carpenter guided into the ’90 playoffs. Watt replaced Carpenter in late October of the following season but couldn’t turn chicken, um, droppings into chicken salad. One of my favourite memories of Watt guiding the team training camp for the 1991-92 season, Fletcher’s first, was seeing Fletcher go down to ice level on the first day Newmarket and ask Watt, “Can’t you make them go faster?” Ah, the memories.

Q: Hey Damien!

What do you think of Cliff Fletcher's almost trades? The one with Philly, Jeff Carter for Kaberle, and the one with Anaheim, Bobby Ryan for our 1st round pick. The way both those players are playing right now it seems that the trades he didn't pull could have been amazing. They seem a whole lot better than the trades that he actually did!

George K. Toronto

A: The trades Fletcher made were unhelpful, to say the least. Maybe a second rounder for Mikhail Grabovski will pan out over time, although I think I’d still rather have that second rounder coming this June. I agree, had Fletcher been able to parlay Kaberle into Carter, that would have been a beauty. But was that the entire deal? See, there’s lots of rumours out there, but only the two clubs know what the give-and-take was on that possible transaction. Maybe the Flyers weren’t interested unless the Leafs tossed in something else. It’s convenient to let bits and pieces of trades that didn’t happen drop after the fact, but that can also misrepresent precisely what was on the table.

As far as Bobby Ryan, well, if that deal really was there, there was absolutely nothing stopping Fletcher from making it, was there? Kaberle had a no-trade, but if Anaheim had really been willing to move Ryan for Toronto’s first pick even if that pick was lottery protected, Fletcher could have pulled the trigger. That he didn’t tells me either the Ducks weren’t nearly as interested as some have made them out to be or that the trade involved other moving pieces that perhaps would have made it more costly for the Leafs. I think the only reasonable analysis of the work of any GM is to evaluate what he does, not what he would have liked to have done.

Q: Just wondering if you think Jiri Tlusty will ever develop into the top six forward he is touted as being or if he is just another bad move made by JFJ?

Patrick Savoury, Rose Blanche, Nfld.

A: It’s not looking good. Certainly, Tlusty doesn’t fit the Brian Burke mold. Tlusty was the 13th pick of the 2006 draft, which now appears to have been 12 players deep. None of the 11 players taken immediately after Tlusty have made an NHL impact yet either. The two players who appear to be surprise gems were Patrik Berglund, taken 25th by the Blues, and Milan Lucic, taken 50th by Boston. I guess you could criticize JFJ for not taking Berglund or Lucic, but if teams had known how good those players were going to be they’d have been taken much higher. Right now, the disappointing thing about Tlusty is that he’s not breaking out in the AHL, either. All this said, he’s 20 years old and still learning the North American game, and a team as thin on young talent as the Leafs are can hardly afford to give up on anybody at this point.

Q: Given the apparent regression of the Leafs, do you think the heavy public criticism approach taken by coach Wilson is right for this team, many of whom are younger and need a confidence boost rather than a public chastizing?

When a team starts to go backward it could be a sign they are tuning the coach out.

Terry Ryan, St. John's

A: Geez, if this team is tuning Wilson out already, I’d say the players have a hearing deficiency that would rule them out of ever becoming quality NHLers. Look, there’s a fine line between a coach ripping on his players in public and speaking honestly while trying to hold them accountable for their play. People criticize Wilson for unnecessarily criticizing his players but to be honest, I think it’s more about reputation than anything he’s actually said or done. This team is about as good as most believed it would be, so I don’t think you can argue that Wilson’s tough love approach has made the team go backward. If the players don’t like what’s being said about them, they have an easy solution - play better!

Q: Hi Damien,

I was wondering if you could set the record straight on what happened in Ottawa when Zdeno Chara left. Given the recent demise of the Sens. I have heard a lot about Muckler making the wrong decision. I always thought that Chara wanted to see what he could get as a free agent and that Muckler decided to lock up Wade Redden in order to keep at least one of the two. Thanks,

Matt Rittenhouse, Montreal

A: This is one of those stories that gets muddier over time. Certainly, it’s pretty obvious now that the Sens made the wrong choice. That said, when they made the 2007 Stanley Cup final, it didn’t look like such a bad decision. Looking back, Redden was held in such high regard as a citizen in Ottawa, let alone a player, that letting him go would have been a difficult thing to do. Moreover, Chara’s agent is from the Boston-area, and there’s a belief in some quarters that was his intended destination from the start. What seems most clear is that the Senators probably chose the wrong strategy by deciding they had to get rid of one or the other. Keeping both, with the benefit of hindsight, would have been better. But don’t look at Redden now and at Chara now. Look at what they were then, and at the decision the Sens were forced to make then.

Q; Damien,

You didn't answer my question in the last mailbag, so I guess I'll try again because I'd really like an answer and don't know who else to ask:

Why do the Leafs sometimes get to wear their white jerseys at home? I have not seen any other team get this option in the past few seasons. I last saw this in Toronto's most recent game against Boston.

While I would prefer all home teams wear white, it irks me that Toronto is getting this kind of special treatment. Thank you.

Jacob Lee, Victoria

A: Not sure how this would constitute special treatment, particularly since the Leafs’ usual white jerseys are about as boring and unappealing as can be imagined. The one with the blue shoulders and throwback crest is much nicer. I will say this. Half the time I turn on a game now it takes me a few moments to figure out which teams are playing because more often than not one is wearing a third or fourth or vintage jersey I’ve never seen before. In fact, I tuned in the other night and saw Detroit wearing WHITE at home, and it took me a while to figure out they were playing St. Louis in a set of uniforms I’d not seen before. There’s no rhyme or reason to any of this, other than to sell more merchandise. But I can assure you the Leafs are not getting special treatment.

Q: Hello Damien, as a long time reader it's a pleasure to finally have a chance to write. While I know you have stated many times your neutrality in regards to your opinion of the Leafs, I can't help but feel like you’re that key grizzled media figure in all those feel good sports movies who will disregard your pragmatism and fist pump the air if the Leafs eventually do win it all. And that you doing so is a key validation of how monumental and generally awesome the moment is. Hey, we can dream right?

Anyway, my question: While I have no doubt that Luke Schenn is great prospect for the organization, I can't help but feel that we are still over-hyping his value and I suppose my opinion begins with the fact that he was the 4th D taken in his draft class. Granted, he was taken 5th overall, but unless the Trasher and Blue GMs come out and say "hey, he made a big mistake,” I'm believing that Schenn's ceiling is Adam Foote and while that is great, its not deserving of the Pronger-like hype Schenn receives.

Personally, I think a lamentable history of drafting and bonafide prospects is making that silver coin look shinier than it is. As a typical Leaf fan, I can't afford going to games or leaf TV, so maybe you're seeing stuff I don't so if you have insights to share here, please do.

Cheers.

Adil Dhalla, Toronto

A: Well,. don’t know about a fist pump. I can say that I would be thrilled for all the Leaf fans who have supported the team for so long, which would include my kids. It would be an extraordinary time for the city, and having been there in ’93 when the Leafs got to Game 7 of the conference final before losing, I can also say it would be a great journalistic experience to cover a team that went all the way.

But fist pump? Not from this corner, sorry. I’ll let the fans do that.

Re Schenn, I would agree that his play and value have been exaggerated this season, as often happens in Toronto. Players are either portrayed as far better than they are, or far worse. Schenn, to me, is a very good prospect who, if he continues to develop his game, should be a solid stay-at-home defenceman in this league for 15 years or longer. He might have more offensive upside, and my comparison has always been to Mike Komisarek. If Schenn turns out to be that good, the Leafs should be pleased.

In terms of where he was drafted, I have only said and will continue to say that it was a waste to sacrifice first, second and third round picks to move up two slots to draft him at fifth. I think you have to try to get top end skill that high in the draft - stay-at-home defenders can be had later - and the Leafs were simply not in a position to be dumping draft picks. Had they stayed right where they were at No. 7, kept their picks and selected Cody Hodgson or Mikkel Boedker or Colin Wilson, I would argue they’d be a little further ahead today.

But that shouldn’t detract from the fact Schenn has had a worthy freshman season and looks like a keeper.

Every Thursday, Damien Cox answers your questions in The Spin, only at thestar.com.

Click here to submit a question.
**Note: please follow the link above to send a question to Damien. Questions posted in the comments section may not make it to the mailbag. Thanks.**

Comments

[D-Man]

Why do you continue to state 'it was a waste to sacrifice first, second and third round picks to move up two slots to draft him at fifth' when it was actually a second and a third to swap firsts and move up two slots? The leafs did not 'give a first round pick' away, since they received a higher one in the same draft. A pendantic but crucial distinction that makes your point misleading.

[DamienCox]

Damien here. . .just must respond to the D-Man. . .I've heard this before and it is the most patently ridiculous argument I've ever heard.
By your logic, if a team traded a defenceman, a forward and goalie and received a defenceman in return, the price of acquisition was only a forward and a goalie!
C'mon. The Leafs had the No. 7 pick overall, and they packaged that with a second round pick and a third rounder to acquire the No. 5 pick. In other words. to move up two slots, they had to pay the Islanders the price of the No. 7 pick, a second and a third.
If you don't understand the basic logic here, I can't help you, D-Man.

[The Real Carl Doyle]

Do you think a good move would be to shop Toskala, and Cujo for maybe a prospect or a young player come the trade deadline and let Pogge finish the year out? Can't hurt. Sixteen shots? They'll be lucky to trade Kaberle now after his injury. Things can't get much worse right now. Then again, if history repeats itself, you may see Kaberle and Toskala traded for Claude Lemieux and Chris Chelios.

Also I don't think it's fair yet to compare Schenn to any established defenceman in the league. Yes he's played above his years so far, he may turn in to a Komisarek, but he could turn in to Aki Berg.

[T-dot]

D-man: use your head.

The bottom line is no one will know if this was a waste until 5-10 years down the line and we see how all these prospects (including Schenn and Hodgson) pan out. Same with Tlusty. Dosen't look good but who knows.

[Leafs14]

Damien ... D-Man is absolutely right. I don't know if you're thin-skinned or obtuse. Let me translate ... what D-Man is asserting is that the net "cost" of moving up 2 spaces was a 2nd and a 3rd pick. You are being misleading ... to the ones who do not follow this closely, what the plain meaning of your words implies is that the Leafs somehow paid an "extra" first rounder to move up 2 spaces. Consider this analogue ... I give you a $5 bill for a gold coin and $3 in change. The true cost of the gold coin is $2. You are implying that the gold coin cost $5. Why would you "speak" to D-Man in such a condescending fashion? A reader is "your customer" ... you have a great platform ... why not use it with greater humility?

[Keebo]

i do guarantee that if the Habs win the Cup, Damien will be fist-pumping as hard as every other Francais tete-a-clac in Montreal.
his undying love for all things bleu blanc et rouge is so apparent it's sickening.

[Andrew Carson]

Damien, D-man is correct in his criticism of your wording regarding the 1st round pick. When you say "move up two slots" you are referencing both Toronto's first round pick and NYI's first round pick. So to include the Leaf's "first, second and third round picks" in your statement, is redundant and misleading...

In your example about defencemen, you change the wording. A more appropriate example would be:
Team A needed to sacrifice a forward and a goalie to change from Defenceman X to Defenceman Y. See how the improvement (either draft pick or defenceman) only needs to be included once. What you are saying when you state "move up two slots" is the same as "change from Defenceman X to Defenceman Y).

So to use your example again, what you are saying originally is more like:
It was a waste to sacrifice a defenceman, a forward and a goalie to change from defenceman A to defenceman B.

See how the defenceman is included twice and is misleading?

[Finance101]

Damien, you normally make well-crafted, intelligent arguments. This is not one of them.

If I understand D-Man's point, it is this (in basic algebra): Leafs trade x, y and z to Islanders, where x is the first rounder, y is the second and z is the third. They get an "x" back, which is debatable whether it has equal or better value. If you accept that x is the same (ie both are first round picks) then the net cost of acquisition is in fact, y and z.

This is not faulty logic - this is basic algebra.

It did not cost them a first rounder to get Luke Schenn. They got a first round pick BACK, which they then used to select Luke.

Think about a stock option, which is what a draft pick is analogous to - the teams swapped an option to select a player in the first round. the value of that option only differs in the time value (that is, one is a 5 pick, the other is a 7). Other than that, the value is identical. They are therefore algebraically equivalent in value and CANCEL EACH OTHER OUT.

It is fair to say, however, that the cost of Luke Schenn was whoever was picked at 7, plus the second and third rounders. It is a small, but important distinction.

[Ravin]

Awesome Reply Damien

The idiot above should refrain from reading or typing as I don't believe he has the ability to do either.

Also what the hell is pendantic?

I think D-Man you might have meant pedantic. Idiot

[DamienCox]

Damien here. . .okay, now that Finance101 has chimed in . . .are you serious? Your logic only makes sense if the two first round picks are equal, in which case WHY IN THE WORLD WOULD YOU WANT TO MAKE THE BLOODY TRADE?
Obviously, the value is in the higher pick, the two first round picks don't "cancel each other out" and the acquisition cost for the No. 5 pick is a first (a lower first, but a first), a second and a third.
You cannot possibly be this thick.

[DamienCox]

Damien here. . .to Leafs14. . .I can't make you feel better by agreeing with you. But if you want to wander around thinking it was a great trade because it was only a second and a third for Schenn, then carry on. Of course, if that was truly the case, the Leafs would have had the No. 5 and No. 7 picks, but don't let logic rain on your parade.

[E On White]

I absolutely hate the "new" NHL thing of the past few years, whereby the visiting teams wear their whites and the home team wears dark. With 30 teams in the league,you would think allowing the home fans to see the nice variety of jerseys around the league coming into town would be a given, rather than seeing the boring Visitors-in-White-Jersey night after night. This annoying "wardrobe malfunction" has even trickled down to the minor-pro and major-junior levels. And like Damien, I sometimes have to watch a game on TV for several minutes to let my eyes get accustomed to unfamiliar and/or jerseys very similar to other team's colours.

[Andrew Carson]

Damien,
Our criticism of your wording regarding the Schenn trade is not a defense of the trade... The trade obviously cost alot (a 2nd rounder in this year's draft and a 3rd rounder in last year's draft to move up two draft spots).
The point is that you are misleading your readers in your wording, especially in making it sound like the Leafs gave up more than they actually did. They did not give up a 1st round pick + a 2nd and 3rd pick to move up in the draft... although they did give up a 1st round pick + a 2nd and 3rd for a higher 1st round pick. There is a difference between those two sentences.
The original poster stated that your wording was misleading, which many of your readers have agreed with... to question our logic and call us "thick" is very condescending and frustrating as a reader.
I think the intention was to simply try to point out where your statement could cause some confusion and ask you to be careful not to be misleading in the future.

[bob brouse]

hi
im a habs fan. just wanted that up front. so here it goes, grabs as we call him in montreal wasnt any good then and isnt any good now. terrible trade. the year is already over for the leafs, why not get an extreme look at your call ups. i find it more interesting than deadwoods, and you can make sure your trade bait stays healthy. and the probability is if the kids play all year(or the rest of it) they'll be better next year,get the experience and you can find the gems. the people who will be really good a few years from now are them. and damien your a great writer ,dont let the knocks get you. im a habs fan and read you,for bleeps sake.

[Fearghus]

Haha I love it when people think the grade 9 math they learned applies to everything. Good job Finance101, I hope you do just as well with your investments.

[drew]

d-man, leafs 14, and all you other math-challenged people ...
so, it cost a 2nd and a 3rd rounder, eh???
so ... if they did not make the deal, the leafs would have ... what ... a 2nd and a 3rd pick???
see ... it is 3 picks for 1 pick ... granted, one on either side happens to be a 1st round one, but not the SAME first round pick ... to help you to think this trough easier ...
rather than thinking of them as 1st round, 2nd round, etc, think of it this way ... they traded the 7th pick, the 37th pick, and the 67th pick for the 5th pick ... make it easier for you??? that would be three on one side, and one on the other ... 3 for 1 ... get it!?!?!?
and next time, relax on the name-calling, and spend some time thinking ...
you give Leaf fans a bad name ...

[Leafs14]

Damien ... having a bad day? You imply that "I can wander around thinking it was a great trade," when that's not what I was stating. The future will tell whether it was a good trade or not. You could be absolutely right ... perhaps Luke Schenn will be another Luke Richardson ... time will tell. My point is that the way you phrased things was a touch misleading. My point is that the "differential" to move up 2 spaces cost the 2nd and 3rd choice, nothing more. As for assailing my logic, you can disagree, but must you do so in such a smug manner? If you find it so off-putting to engage us ordinary fans, why do you do so?

[Hussmann]

I hate to admit it but Cox is right. If it only cost a 2nd and a 3rd for the pick the Leafs would have picked 5th and 7th. But they gave up their 7th as well. Kinda nice that we can try and critique a writers piece of work. Maybe some of the players he bashes should respond on pages like these. Be fun to have Tucker critique some of Cox's questionable pieces.

[Bruce]

Hi all. wow this is amusing reading about the 1st, 2nd and 3rd round picks. I am not a big fan and haven't seen this Schenn character play I am afraid. It seems to be an argument over symantecs but from what you are all saying in terms of this trade, just think of it this way: if the toronto team were able to now cancel this Schenn trade what would they get back? That should settle the argument (spoiler alert: they get a 1st, 2nd and 3rd back, hence that is the cost of acquiring this Schenn fellow).

[Keith Talent]

"In terms of where he was drafted, I have only said and will continue to say that it was a waste to sacrifice first, second and third round picks to move up two slots to draft him at fifth. "

To my ear, it makes a lot more sense to say "they sacrificed second and third round picks to move up two slots to draft him at fifth". The "move up two slots" part explains what happened with with the two first round picks on its own. The 2nd and 3rd round picks were exchanged for the round 1 bump. That's the essence of the deal. Your sentence is confusin. I'm with D-Man.

[JamesM]

Why not just think about it like this:

Leafs Trade:
Colin Wilson
2nd rounder
3rd rounder

for

Luke Schenn

No more x's, y's, and z's; no more stock options.

[Dan]

First time I've read the comments section in a while despite reading the Spin frequently. This is funny stuff. Damien's right, but good job on you guys getting him riled up. It's made for a more entertaining read.

[DamienCox]

Damien here. . .have to say I could never have imagined that I was stirring up such a hornet's nest by discussing the trade that allowed the Leafs to select Luke Schenn in last summer's draft. The way in which those who bleed blue-and-white will contort reality to fit their world view is truly astounding, impressive really. Believing in an organization that has let them down year after year after year, I suppose, does take a little bit of rationalizing from time to time.
With all due respect to the perspective of D-Man, Leafs 14 and Andrew Carson, I put out a call to Lou Lamoriello today. He was thrilled to know that he didn't actually give up Alyn McCauley, Steve Sullivan and Jason Smith a decade ago to get Doug Gilmour and Dave Ellett. Rather, according to the logic of the gentlemen listed above, Lamoriello gave up only McCauley, since Sullivan cancelled out Gilmour and Smith cancelled out Ellett.
Similarly, when the Leafs acquired Brian Leetch and a fourth rounder from the Rangers in March, 2004 for defenceman Maxim Kondratiev, Jarkko Immonen, Toronto's first rounder in '04 and second rounder in '05, the true "differential" was actually Immonen. What a deal for the Leafs!
If you look at these trades just the right way, they take on an entirely new perspective. . . . . .

[Fuzzy Pete]

Personally, I don't think it matters now what Cliff Fletcher did during the draft. What's done is done. If you go back and look at some of the first round draft picks that Fletcher chose back when he was in charge in the 90's, I think we are pretty fortunate to have Luke Schenn. I know Cliff did his best but I think we are lucky that Burke made himself available when he did. Otherwise we might be looking at a group of young players like Eric Fichaud, Brandon Covery or Landon Wilson (three of Fletcher's former first round picks whom I had never heard of until now).

[Giller]

Why is a comparison to Luke Richardson a bad thing? The guy has played in over 1400 NHL games! 1400! That's a huge amount of games. #23 all time! Sure, he never turned into a huge point producer, but man, could he hit. And a great stay at home defenceman. A valuable commodity. If Luke Schenn turns out to be 'another' Luke Richardson, well, that's not a bad thing at all. No hall of famer, but still, quality NHL defenceman.