Draft Chatter Heating Up

COLIN MCCONNELL/TORONTO STAR

It appears that all other prospects are looking up at Victor Hedman as the top pick in this year's NHL draft.

With the entry draft just 25 days away, and with GMs from all NHL clubs meeting in Pittsburgh today during the Stanley Cup final, there's all kinds of rumour and speculation going around about the intentions of various teams.

Most clubs have now decided there is, like last year, a Big Five of prospects that includes centre John Tavares, defenceman Victor Hedman, winger Evander Kane, centre Matt Duchene and forward Braydon Schenn, brother of Leaf defenceman Luke Schenn. All five prospects are also in Pittsburgh today for media interviews.

The Islanders own the first pick and are now apparently leaning towards Hedman. After that, the order of players is up in the air, as are the intentions of teams holding the top picks.

The Leafs and GM Brian Burke hold the seventh pick, and if the draft were today would like end up looking at either 6-foot-5 defenceman Jared Cowan, who missed most of last season with a knee injury, or talented winger Nazem Kadri in the No. 7 slot. Forwards like Sweden's Magnus Svensson-Pajaarvi and University of Minnesota forward Jordan Schroeder are more remote possiblities.

But Burke has said repeatedly he wants to move up and has already talked to the teams holding the top five picks. After Long Island, the order is Tampa Bay, Colorado, Atlanta and Los Angeles.

Colorado is a wild card at this point because the Avalanche don't even have a GM after failing to come to terms with Patrick Roy to be GM/head coach. Players the talent-thin Leafs are being asked about by other clubs likely include Mikhail Grabovski, newly signed prospect Viktor Stahlberg and mobile defenceman Anton Stralman, who had a strong world championships tournament for Sweden and attracted offers at the trade deadline. Luke Schenn, at this point, is apparently still an untouchable in Burke's eyes, but the Leafs might have to think about including next year's first round pick in a package to move up this year.

While there have been suggestions some teams are concerned about the quality of Tavares' skating, the Leafs have no such concerns and will likely increase their efforts to do a deal with Tampa. Knowing Burke's past history of draft dealings, he could well try to move up in stages, first acquiring the third, fourth or fifth pick, then trying to use that to get to No. 1 or 2. A little known fact is that when Burke drafted the Sedin twins for Vancouver, he was actually trying to position himself to draft Patrik Stefan as well, who went first overall.

At the same time, the Leafs are furiously trying to outbid Dallas and San Jose for the services of Swedish goaltender Jonas Gustavsson, with Colorado apparently no longer a consideration for "The Monster." The bidding for Gustavsson has been on hold after the death of his mother but is expected to pick up in the next 10 days when he comes to North America for interviews.

Right now, Burke's priorities are signing Gustavsson, moving up to get one of the Big Five and adding one or more enforcer-type players through the draft or free agency. If Burke has his way, the Leaf depth chart will look very different by this time next month.

Burke also met with members of his Team USA staff for next year's Olympic Games last night in Pittsburgh.

Comments

[James]

Trade everything you can and try to get Tavares and B. Schenn. Throw in Kaberle, grabowski, next years first rounder a second rounder, stajan, white and land the two young forwards that can lead the leafs into the future!!! All the up and coming team are showing us that anything is possible with two young studs playing up front. Go get em!!!

[Bold Bravado]

I think there is no doubt that the Leafs will be a very different team next year. Should Cowan successfully recuperate from surgery the kid would fit perfect. Building from the goaltending out, between the pipes must be addressed first and foremost, Gustavsson is an unproven entity at this level and there is nothing positive from Toskala or Pogge. Is Tavares the savior? No way, a skilled player but again untested at the NHL level. Burke has his work cut out for him, Last year was a “get your feet wet” year, this year, well I guess we’ll see how good a swimmer he is!!!

[Bold Bravado]

PS- Based on everything I'm hearing, it would be nice for the Leafs to win a cup before 2012!!!

[Matt Venca]

******
SPOILER ALERT
The following note identifies the transactions that will take place regarding the Toronto Maple Leafs and the 2009 NHL Draft. If you do not want to know this, do not read it!
*****

Burkie recently let go of some consulting staff. I am one of the lucky ones. Regardless of all that, I can tell you that if Toronto signs Jonas, the following WILL take place in the 24 hours leading up to the draft.

Trade 1: Toronto/New York Islanders

New York Islanders receive:
-Pavel Kubina
-40% of the remaining salary for Kubina in the form of a one-time cash payment
-Toronto's (late) 2nd round pick in 2009 NHL Draft

Toronto Maple Leafs receive:
-26th pick in 2009 NHL Draft

Trade 2: Toronto/Colorado Avalanche

Colorado Avalanche receive:
-7th pick in NHL Draft
-Matt Stajan

Toronto Maple Leafs receive:
-3rd pick in NHL Draft

Trade 3: Toronto/Atlanta Thrashers

Atlanta Thrashers receive:
-Tomas Kaberle
-Mikhail Grabovksi
-26th pick in 2009 NHL Draft

Toronto Maple Leafs receive:
-4th pick in NHL Draft

Trade 4: Toronto/Tampa Bay Lightning

Tampa Bay Lightning receive:
-Justin Pogge

Toronto Maple Leafs receive:
-Promisory note from Tampa Bay Lightning that they will not select Victor Hedman with the 2nd pick.

DRAFT RESULTS:
1 - New York Islanders select John Tavares
2 - Tampa Bay Lightning select Matt Duchene
3 - Toronto Maple Leafs select Victor Hedman
4 - Toronto Maple Leafs select Brayden Schenn

Toronto gives up: Justin Pogge, Tomas Kaberle, Mikhail Grabovski, Pavel Kubina, 40% of Kubina's contract, two 2nd round picks in 2009, Matt Stajan, and the 7th pick in 2009

Toronto gains: Victor Hedman, Brayden Schenn, Jonas Gustavsson.

It is arguable whether this overall scenario is favourable or not. Personally, I was against it and felt that under different circumstances more could be obtained for all of the above assets - namely the 7th pick.

In any case, there it is folks. You're all welcome :)

[Out West]

I agree, trade everything in the organization for as many 1st and 2nd round picks you can get in the next 2 years. Cheap is not a reason to keep a player when you have a farm team. If you can't get picks for combo packs of Kaberle, Kubina, White, Poni, Grabs, Stajan, etc... That should be 2 first rounders and at least 3/4 second rounders. Only keep Schenn, Williams, and Stralman.

[Dave]

Just looking at the trades from Matt Vence.
Trade number 1. Could happen.
Trade number 2. Not sure why Colorado would think that Matt Stajan is worth moving down 4 spots in the draft. I also question how a potential trade could be in the works with a team that does not currently have a GM.
Trade Number 3. Why would Atlanta make this deal unless they are worried about future contracts of a 4th overal pick.
Trade number 4. could happen.

Summary. I can't see the Leafs ending up with the 3rd and 4th picks that easily.

[LOCKSTOCK93]

I love it. I don't know if it's the product of someone's imagination or something more, but i love it. Props Matt Venca

[LOCKSTOCK93]

As to the value of the above described moves, an added benefit is cap space at a time when it is at a premium. Adding boumeester would be a ridiculously good move and maybe shopping for a few other building blocks who are more than just fill in players until the TBD(to be drafted) mature.

[Guido]

While Matt may indeed be who he says he is .. I'm pretty sure that first trade is illegal isn't it? You cannot include cash as part of any deal

[Matt Venca]

Its Venca, not Vence.

Trade number 1) This is a done deal pending Gustavsson signing with Toronto - Guaranteed. It will not even wait until draft day to happen.

Trade number 2) Pierre Lacroix has been handling GM duties for Colorado for the time being and has had a strong interest in Stajan since he was drafted. He believes that Stajan can currently play a style that will compliment Smyth very well, and likes Matt's versatility. Think of this way. Duchene for Matt Stajan and Magnus Paajarvi-Svensson. Then do you do the trade? Probably.

Trade number 3) Atlanta is under severe pressure to make the playoffs, otherwise Ilya Kovalchuk will completely lose interest in the team. If he walks, it is another 5 years before the team is profitable and winning. They believe Grabovski has the speed and talent to center the Kovalchuk line, while Tomas would be a significant immediate addition to the powerplay. They immediately become a better hockey team, and don't even lose a first round pick. Think of it this way: Evander Kane for Kaberle, Grabovski, and a first round pick. Then do you do the trade? Probably.

Trade number 4) This is the least likely. Tampa wants a defenceman. Period. They want to improve their back end. They do believe Pogge can play much better in their market than in Toronto. The only way this deal would work is if Tampa then traded their 2nd pick to LA for something else. Then they would get Pogge, probably Jared Cowen, and then whatever they receive from LA. All essentially in exchange for Hedman. Hedman has also stated that he would prefer to play for a team with more history than the Southern State teams.

Summary. I actually believe that Toronto would be overpaying for the 3rd and 4th picks. Can you imagine what the on-ice product for the 2010 season would be without Kubina, Kaberle, Grabovski, Stajan...The flip side is that Toronto's ability to pay up come July 1 can make up for the overpayment at draft day.

[Jim]

Nothing wrong with moving next year's first rounder, as the 2010 draft is regarded by most scouts as being notoriously thin... especially compared to this year's stock.

[Matt Venca]

I will clarify further.

Guido: In order to ensure that the funds are allocated specifically to Kubina's contract, Toronto would buy out 40% of the remaining contract (ie. Pay Pavel in cash) prior to trading him. This means that Toronto is trading the player and his contract, of which only 60% will remain. No cash transfer to NYI.

Lockstock: You are correct. The notion of making these deals was centered around acquiring Jonas Gustavsson. If he is indeed signed, Toronto would be acquiring someone who they believe to be a starting goaltender. Between Vesa and Jonas, goaltending will be settled by April 2010. Then, by letting go of Kaberle and Kubina, they now have a lot of dollars they can bring to the free agent market - and goaltending is no longer a concern. This allows Toronto to aggressively pursue someone like Bouwmeester. If Toronto does not sign Jonas, then they will have to pick away at the free agent market to find a goalie. That means that both Kaberle and Kubina may not be expendable.

The vision here is a team in the 2011 playoffs with a top 8 starting goaltender, Schenn, Stralman, Hedman, and Bouwmeester.

[Venca Buster]

oh FFS.

Stop with your crap. You can't even trade cash in the NHL anymore. I stopped right there, because, to anyone that knows all that much about hockey, they know it's crap.

[LOCKSTOCK93]

Haha, i think it's time that Damien Cox weighed in on this one. It is his blog after all and this is "hockey talk".

So what's the value of sharing this information m. venca? aren't you likely to make future employers less likely to deal with you, after sharing information post employment? or is this knowledge so readily available that it could be attributed to anyone and your anonymity is assured? Assuming this isn't just a fun way to make predictions.

[Down Goes Brown]

These trades makes a ton of sense and I believe they're likely real.

You know, other than the fact that the cash transcation as described is against the CBA and completely impossible.

Oh, and also that Burke has apparently already negotiated a deal with the Avs even though they only named their GM today.

Glad to hear that Burke hires consultants to help with trades, then gets rid of them before the deals are made. I guess his fourteen assistant GMs aren't enough to keep track of all of this.

[Jamie ireland]

We'll give you Gainey and Trevor Timmons for Toskala! That should ensure the Leafs remain mediocre until the next century. i'm happy to see burke as GM, We're stuck with no blue chip prospects and a city no one free agent except Kovalev wants to play for!
Gainey's five year plan should result in a Stanley Cup by 2050 in Montreal. Atleast you have Burke, all we have is the dinosaur Gainey who insists that Crescent street Carey is the answer to the Habs problems.
Jamie in Montreal

[CG]

Damien, please, in the name of all that is holy, PLEASE, get on here and de-bunk this ridiculousless. I don't want to have to start "almost" believing this 19029 way deal to be true!!!

[Dave]

So Matt...how long have you been smoking crack? Are you actually claiming you hold some type of "Consulting" gig with the Maple Leafs? That at least seems to your inference. The trade that seems the most ridiculous is the one with Colorado. Do you really believe no other team in the wouldn't or couldn't better the offer of Stajan and a 7th rounder? If you are a consultant it explains a great deal of why the Leafs are where they are...

[A-Mar]

Matt. You are not just wrong but in misrepresenting yourself as an insider you are being deceitful. Justin Pogge... possibly not going to be qualified is not an asset. The Thrashers, in need of impact prospects as badly as the Leafs, are not going to trade down 20 spots and a great degree of talent for another RFA and Tomas Kaberle. They already have Hainsey and Enstrom running the PP. A powerplay quarterback, no matter how good, is not going to make it worth it to them.

[JethroQWalrusTT]

Matt 'Venca' is a liar. Wrong and wrong and wrong! Unless he was talking about a draft in alternate reality. How sad.