So Many Possibilities

THE CANADIAN PRESS FILE PHOTO

Leafs could make a double-splash tomorrow if the Sedin twins are on the market.

Having been absurdly slammed in some quarters for being too vocal prior to the draft - yes, by all means let us not encourage newsmakers to speak freely - Brian Burke has gone quiet the past two days.

Don't worry. He'll reappear tomorrow. In fact, if there are still a pair of Swedish identical twins available named Henrik and Daniel on the first day of free agency, there's a chance for Burke to make the biggest splash of his short tenure in Toronto.

The Sedins are target No. 1, and the Leafs are unlikely to do too much, or anything that would eliminate them from bidding for Rick Nash next summer if he gets to unrestricted free agency. Otherwise, precisely how Burke will spring into action is unclear, and for several reasons.

First, he's still waiting to hear from Swedish free agent goalie Jonas Gustavsson, which is why he had to cover himself by giving Justin Pogge a qualifying offer. Gustavsson won't be making his decision by tomorrow, it appears, and is back in Sweden overwhelmed by the decision and still grieving over the death of his mother two several weeks ago. With no parents left and no siblings, he's finding it understandably difficult to grapple with this very complex choice.

But the Leafs aren't going away on this one.

AP FILE PHOTO

If Toronto can't land the Sedins, look for them to take a run at Mike Cammalleri, a 39 goal scorer last year.

You can assume that if Gustavsson does eventually sign with Toronto, Burke has promised Pogge he'll find him a new home somewhere. That's Burke's style.

Second, It's not entirely clear which players will actually be available - hey, 44-year-old Ed Belfour wants to make a comeback - with many clubs going down to the final hours still trying to sign key athletes. Bill Guerin signed with Pittsburgh yesterday, and Rob Blake re-signed in San Jose today. So the situation is fluid.

Third, it's one thing to have a wish list and quite another to be willing to confront the financial demands of top players.

In general, Burke isn't keen on bidding wars or setting a price that other teams can top. Instead, his usual strategy is to huddle with his key advisers, set a target salary and then a number he won't go beyond. Last summer with the Ducks, for example, he ballparked $2 million a year for defenceman Jeff Finger and decided he would go no higher than $2.5 million per. The Leafs, of course, got Finger for the astronomical number of $3.5 million a season.

Dave Nonis, Burke's right hand man, is the governor on the engine here. He's determined not to let the Leafs get into a salary cap jackpot or to overpay for individual players.

That said, there is help for the Leafs out there in four areas:

1. DEFENCE.

The Leafs would love to think Jay Bouwmeester, if still unsigned, would consider them, but no one believes that to be likely. Moreover, the Leafs probably don't want to get into the $7 million a year range for a player who has really accomplished little in his NHL career because of his situation.

Their fall back positions included Anaheim's Francois Beauchemin, underrated and tough, and Montreal's Mike Komisarek, if he doesn't re-sign with the Habs. Those two players, however, could turn out to be this year's Finger, meaning the bidding could get goofy.

Vancouver's Mattias Ohlund, a long-time Burke favourite, is very much on the radar screen.

2. SKILL FORWARDS

The Sedins twins will get an offer from the Leafs if Canucks GM Mike Gillis can't get them to agree to new contracts. The Leafs are probably willing to hit the salary target unless it goes over $7 million per, but they would be likely unwilling to do anything longer than six years per twin.

Understand, the Leafs would love to rip these twins out of the hands of the Canucks, for hockey reasons first and foremost. But you can bet Nonis hasn't forgot having Gillis do an end-around to get his job in Vancouver.

The fall back position would be Calgary's Mike Cammalleri, a 39-goal scorer. Diminutive New Jersey winger Brian Gionta is another possibility here.

3. CHECKERS/GRINDERS

The Leafs want to become harder to play against, but that doesn't mean just muscle. Burke likes edgy, fast third and four liners like two players he had in Anaheim, Sami Pahlsson and Todd Marchant. Both interestingly, are available.

Local lad Manny Malhotra would be a good fit, a player who was drafted originally as a skill forward but has redefined himself in Columbus as a hard-nosed checking centre who can still score a little bit. He was skilled enough to play with Nash and Kristian Huselius for chunks of last year.

AP FILE PHOTO

Rangers tough guy Colton Orr could be high on Leafs' wish list.

Marchant could fit. while Pahlsson might not because Burke is well aware of his injury history. Domenic Moore might be another option.

4. MUSCLE

You've got to believe Burke is going to make a pitch for tough guy Colton Orr of the Rangers, the only bonafide enforcer out there who can play. He's 27 and made only $550,000 last season, and the Rangers rejected a three-year, $1 million per season offer from Orr's camp. He can play a regular shift, and in fact was used extensively by ex-Rangers coach Tom Renney in a checking role against top-end opposing forwards.

The fall back position here would be Buffalo's Andrew Peters or ex-Senator Brian McGrattan. There's also Ottawa's Chris Neil, although he's more of a middleweight compared to Orr, one of the toughest fighters in the league, and would be more secondary toughness.

Comments

[Waitingpatiently]

Wow! Atchinator is one angry little man. You need to decompress dude. Not sure what your hate-on is for Toronto but you might want to try to get a life.

[Bill Mogulsby]

If the Sedins come packaged as a pair - then they should be a 2 for 1 deal - after all they only use one mattress, one spoon, one chair, one car...

[J.]

I'm sick and tired of ownership's annual attempt to fix this horribly flawed roster with old, overpaid short-term veterans, always ensuring the team is never quite good enough to make the playoffs and never quite bad enough to land a top prospect in the draft. Signing just enough veteran talent this offseason to make the playoffs as a 7-8 seed serves no purpose -- the team is then just first-round fodder for the Pittsburghs, Washingtons, and Bostons of the Conference. I want to see a true Stanley Cup contender, not annual first-round exits, a la the New York Rangers. So if the choice is between making a brief playoff appearance or spending another year in the NHL's basement, I would choose the latter without any hesitation.

That brings us to the Sedins: signing them would change nothing -- still not good enough to make a dent in the East, but too good to land any blue-chip draft prospect; the same hockey purgatory that has become an all too familiar niche for the Maple Leafs in the post-lock out NHL. Signing Cammalleri would be no different -- who, by the way is not worth even close to the $6MM the bidding war for his services will likely reach. To compete for a Stanley Cup, this team still needs considerable work. It's having a long-term plan and patience that separates Cup contenders (i.e. Pittsburgh, Chicago) from the "one-and-done" clubs like the aforementioned Rangers. The Leafs still need another season to completely bottom out and chase that elusive #1 pick. Signing the Sedins and/or Cammalleri jeopardizes that.

I'd like to see Burke spend very conservatively in this free agent market, and let the young kids take their lumps next season. It's a rebuilding year anyway, might as well give our young guys a shot and see what we've got on the farm. Losses will inevitably pile up by playing the youngsters, putting the Leafs in position to land top prospect Taylor Hall, and remake the team next free agent offseason with the upwards of $35MM in cap room they are projected to have -- saving space this summer would in 2010 give the Leafs the flexibility to add BOTH free-agents-to-be Rick Nash and Ilya Kovalchuk, who are a) younger, b) MUCH better hockey players than the Sedin twins and Mike Cammalleri, and most importantly c) will not take us out of the Taylor Hall sweepstakes since they are not available until next summer.

Give the likes of Hanson, Bozak, Tlusty, Stralman and Gustavsson (if he's signed) a full season of playing experience -- and even perhaps giving Kadri a shot over the last 25-30 games. The kids that will play a role in the team's resurgence get their feet wet in a no-expectation, low-pressure situation, and the Leafs undoubtedly land a top 5 pick while saving valuable cap dollars for next summer, when Burke will be able to reconfigure the team into a very strong club for years to come. The Leafs have the luxury of being able to pull this off, since this market has proven over the years to be supportive of whatever team management has assembled.

That being said, there are still a handful of players worth chasing this offseason: Beauchemin (to replace Kaberle and/or Kubina after they're inevitably moved, while also being young enough to be an effective piece once this team is ready to contend), Ohlund (if Beauchemin is too pricey) and some grinders like Travis Moen and Colton Orr. Save the cap room to chase Taylor Hall, Rick Nash and Ilya Kovalchuk in 2010!

[George Hall]

The Sedins are great players.

[D]

Brian McGrattan would be a great addition to the Leafs. There is no classier player in hockey and he could be a great role model for a young team.

[maxfactor72]

WOW - Colton Orr - the league punching bag. That guy has more steel plates in his face than the Terminator! He's the league punching bag. The next Nik Kipreos - never win a fight - but give great interview!
.
What wold another July 1 be without the same ol' Leafs signing everybody crap. They will sign maybe 2 players, greatly overpay for them, talk about how great they are, then spend the next five years or so trying to dump their contract. Then all their fans will go on the forums around the world talking about how they should sign more "ONTARIO BOYS" - like that's an indicator of talent or something!

[Greg]

"How much money will Gustavsson be earning(before he has even proven he can play in the NHL)? "

He is maxed out at 900k for his first contract... that's why we're not hearing anything about money in these negotiations, no one is permitted to offer him any real money right out of the chute.

"You got to love it when rich teams get to retool via their chequebook."

Salary cap and everything and this kind of whining still never ends... you'd think there was some nobility in running an unprofitable business or something

[BurkeEpicFail]

Detroit's Europeans (which is 70% of their team anyway), chiefly their all-star Swedes did NOT take hits or go into the corners after the puck in game 7 of the Final this year. They lost just about every battle for the puck and as a result, the game and Cup. And that is a fact.

The third period was a debacle for Team Europe.

[ray b]

Re: Ryan..

Are you nuts? Neither of these guys have been putting up numbers like Crosby or Ovechkin..Didn't say they were bad players but wildly overrated..Lets not forget when Burke was in Vancouver he wasn't preaching fighting like he is now..His teams were very good in the regular season and very poor in the postseason..Even with the best goalie in the world, the twins haven't led Vancouver to anything but playoff failures..

Burke came to Toronto praising youth and making his team competitive for the long term...How would he be any different then JFJ if he signed these 2 players to long term deals for big money?..We plastered Ferguson for signing the likes of Kubina, Blake and Mcabe but good old Burke is a genius is he signs a couple of players approaching 30?..Expain..

[Vince Degiorgio]

Lived in Vancouver for five years and as a Leaf fan, I'd be happy if the Sedins came here.

[Ryan Funston]

Atchinator, the fact that you are reading a Toronto newspaper and taking time out of your day to comment on Damian's story proves that you are another jealous westerner who secretly wished that they lived in Toronto. The common Torontonian doesn't pretend to hate other Canadian cities, we live our lives.

[PJ Malone]

Great insights, Damian. Really interesting. I disagree, though, that Burke's been slammed for being so vocal. He's being slammed for being so vocal then doing nothing, while Darryl Sutter (who I presume is paid much less) essentially guaranteed himself Bouwmeester for a third-round pick. Then again, maybe Bouwmeester is a bad signing, just as the Sedins would have been, and Burke is saved from making a potentially bad move. Give Burke this -- he's smart as hell, and I hope he knows he doesn't HAVE to make a move if there isn't one.