Tricky Choices, But Good Ones

What a fascinating choice, presuming it actually exists.

On one hand, you have John Tavares.

On the other, you have two Schenns.

Which would you prefer, Leaf Nation?

There are, quite obviously, many scenarios that exist in between for Brian Burke and the Maple Leafs, but these seem to be the two that would most define the club going forward.

THE CANADIAN PRESS

Luke Schenn is a developing stud on the back end.

If Burke were willing to sacrifice Luke Schenn, there’s the belief he could get the No. 2 pick in tomorrow’s NHL entry draft and quite possibly the right to draft Tavares, presuming the New York Islanders play along.

(For those who keep suggesting the Isles should for some reason or another tell the hockey world who they’ll be taking first overall, this is why they should not. If the Leafs, for example, were able to get to No. 2, wouldn’t it be worth it for Isles GM Garth Snow to hold up Toronto for a little something extra if he were willing to take Victor Hedman at No. 1? Of course it would.)

So while the deal would also involve the Leafs’ pick, No. 7, and maybe something else as well, the bottom line would be Schenn for Tavares.

The likelihood is that Tavares will be the superior NHL player, certainly in terms of offensive output.

Burke wouldn’t necessarily disagree. What he would argue, however, is that Schenn has qualities of leadership and defensive presence that every good team needs, and that sacrificing one top prospect for another just puts the club back on the “hamster on a wheel” process, always making one step back to make one forward and never making actual progress.

He understands the specific short- and long-term implications. As part of the process of landing the Sedins for Vancouver, he gave up Bryan McCabe, who at that time was a top-notch, hard-nosed blueline prospect and, to be fair, developed into a quality NHL defenceman with significant offensive ability.

The Leafs gave up first, second and third round picks for the right to draft Schenn last year, so they’ve already made a significant investment. Even though he didn’t make that deal – and I doubt would have made that deal – that’s where Burke’s “hamster on a wheel” philosophy comes in.

Will the Leafs one day regret not moving Schenn to get Tavares? Maybe.

Then again, there’s also a sweet deal here for Tampa. If I’m Brian Lawton, I would surely look seriously at a deal that gave me Tomas Kaberle or Pavel Kubina, Mikhail Grabovski and the Leafs No. 7 pick (potentially defenceman Jared Cowan, which is what Tampa needs).

Most important, however, Lawton should insist on getting the Leafs’ No. 1 pick next year. That could be a lottery pick and possibly even a top three selection, and that would be the kind of Sam Pollock-like move that could really set up the Lightning down the road.

But let’s say Burke won’t deal Schenn and Tampa’s not interested in a deal with Toronto.

Then position B for Burke has to be the double Schenn.

There are those who see Brayden Schenn as a Mike Richards-type player, and this would be an acquisition that would surely grab the attention of the city after last season in which Burke was personally offended by the way many simply yawned as the Leafs once again missed post-season play.

Let’s face it. Burke didn’t come to Toronto to be just another sports executive in town. He’s wants to be the Big Kahuna, and, let’s face it, Bryan Colangelo and J.P. Ricciardi haven’t set the bar particularly high.

So, in the name of scientific research, I asked my 10-year-old son, a true Leaf fan, whether he’d rather have the Leafs pick up Tavares or end up with two Schenns.

“Is Braydon Schenn as good as Luke Schenn?” was his first question. Maybe, was the answer.

Hmmm. “Then I would trade for John Tavares,” was his analysis.

Well, he and I will have to disagree. As I’ve been saying for some time, this shapes up as a draft so deep that the ideal result for the Leafs would not be to end up with Hedman or Tavares, but to get two top prospects.

They need numbers as well as talent. So if they could get Brayden Schenn and then Zack Kassian somewhere between No. 10 and No. 20, that would be a good day. Or if they could land Dmitry Kulikov – Burke has already said he’s a Canadian in a Russian’s body – and Scott Glennie, that would be progress.

So we’ll see. The sense is this is going right down to the wire, and Burke will be going hard tonight and right up to draft time tomorrow night. For the second straight draft, the Leafs are a team trying to make something big happen.

Comments

[Dave]

I agree totally that 2 Schenn's are far better than one Tavares. One need only look at Brayden's credentials. At 17, third in scoring in this years playoffs. The 2 players ahead of him, 21 years old. Nuff said. Rookie of the Year his first year in the WHL. I think kids out West mature faster because there are more demands put on them ie travel. You have to be a special kid to do this. Hmmm, Wendl comes to mind. Oh, has anyone seen the self proclaimed Leaf "insider", you know,Vinca, the one who knows all the in's and out's of the Draft and Leafs plans. Haven't seen or heard from him lately, did he get let go from the apparent house cleaning he claimed he was never part of. Just wondering? Dave

[Ryan]

If Burke Trades Schenn then I will be terrible upset. I just got a Schenn Jersey for my Birthday this year from my wife. I'd prefer 2 Schenns over an Alexander Daigle... err I mean John Tavares ANY Day.

[Remi.S.]

The Leafs should not trade Schenn for anyone.I don't agree with Cox.I never did and never will.

[LOCKSTOCK93]

Why would you want a team of grinders when you can add a superstar? If there is a SUPERSTAR to be added? I understand the value of deep drafts as much as the next guy, but deep drafts still have players of top value, and Tavares, Hedman and Duchene are the guys presently projected to have that top value...

Now, how does a scott stevens type defenseman, and in fairness, Luke Schenn is nowhere near as good as Stevens was at the same age, have the same value in the new NHL? Stevens and foote and phillips, all guys that Schenn will have to play very well in his career to be compared to, are all better suited for an NHL gone-by.

So why in the world, in an NHL built on scoring goals, would you not get the guy who is a superstar goal scorer? or at least the best defenseman available?

The leafs are surely handicapped by the foolish move to acquire schenn and the even more foolish move the year before to acquire Toskala, and the one before that to get Raycroft....come to that, maybe the leafs should just stay in toronto during the draft and automatically select the highest rated player!

[David Naylor]

IT.DOES.NOT.MATTER.WHO.WE.DRAFT...

Who are you trying to fool here Damien? It we draft Schenn (or any player really) you will find some way to spin it and make it look bad.

[nugentmania]

I'd take Cowan at #7......then I'd deal Kaberle to a team picking where Damien mentioned, maybe between #10 and #15....and try and get Kassian. However....it would be after this where Burke can show me if he's really the man. This would be the time to hammer the teams that have major cap issues, like the Rangers and the Flyers. With Kaberle gone, there would be even more cap room (aka, parking space) with the Leafs for those teams to make a run at Bouwmeester. I don't think Daniel Briere would come to Toronto, but Simon Gagne might not have the same choice. Wade Redden too. So.....those teams pick #19 and #21, and those picks would have to come to Toronto with those salaries. I'd even flip Gagne to the Habs for their 18th pick and some goodies. I think Burke could do some major work on the prospect pool Friday. You never know.

[Nick Martin]

So, Kaberle, Grabovski, #7 and next year's #1 for the possibility of Tavares being there at #2? That's way too much --- better to stay at #7 and take the best player available, or trade down if that looks good to Burke, trade Kubina and maybe Kaberle for extra picks and prospects, and use the cap space to chase free agents. Stick with the game plan.

[Marijan Kalman]

Oh Damien,
I can't belive that you are writng about NHL,bush organization where three people changed rules of the game, forced refs. to call the game so Detroit loses.It would be better that few of you put effort to uncover how they preranged Cup Final.Hint: check text excange between Campbell and two people from NY.head office after second game, when they where scrambeling how to avoid Malkin suspension!!

[BF22]

more importantly, can we please stop using the phrase "Leafs Nation"? It's stupid.

[Calvin]

Kaberle, Grabovski, #7 and next year's 1 rd pick is way too high to move 5 places up. Who's Tavares going to pass to once we get him?

You need quality players and build a team like how the Pens, Hawks and Caps did. There's always an Alexander Daigle waiting in the wings and there's no guarentee the kid isn't going to blow his knee out on his frist shift. It's better to trade a couple of places up and pick up Braydon and keep as many picks for the future and aquire more assets. Detriot always seem to retain their picks and draft high quality players to groom in there farm system. There's no quick fix and us Leaf fans need to grind it out.

[Mack]

I agree with Nick. If you cannot guarantee landing Tavares, then giving up a big package like Grab/Kab/#1 seems illogical, although Hedman/Schenn would be a ridiculous tandem.

I like Cowan at #7, but I would be very hesitant because of his knee problems. If they stick at 7 I would actually like to see them take MPS, although adding another European might not sit well with Leaf fans. But based on his size, speed, grittiness and his performance at the WJC, I think he has a lot of upside.

If they could draft up to get Schenn without giving up too much (maybe #1 plus a second and maybe a later round/conditional pick) that would also be a no brainer.

Drafting down could be an option if Burke really wants Kassian, and while this kid is no doubt a beast on the ice and a prototypical Burke player, I think the leafs could use more natural/scoring talent.

If Tavares goes #1, I would stay at 7 and grab the best player available, or move up to get Schenn and then trade Kaberle to a team picking in the top 15 and try and nab Kassian that way. If they could manage to add some "testosterone" and some goal scoring, im sure 'Leafs Nation' would be a satisifed flock.

[GP]

Kaberle, Grabovski, #7 and next year's first-rounder for Tavares ... where do I sign?

If Burke protects next year's first-rounder, say top five protection, then this is a steal. Think about it:

Kaberle - his value has dropped off quite significantly from last season. When Burke talks about his typical player, Kaberle is the polar opposite. Gives the Leafs 4.25 million in cap flexibility. Remember, we're rebuilding, why do we need a defenseman who is on the wrong side of 30?

Grabovski - looks like he's going to salary arbitration... probably will be awarded 2 million +/-. For someone who disappears for long stretches, I wouldn't mind saving two million in cap space and putting that towards a solid UFA.

7th overall - anyone with some knowledge of this year's draft crop would know after the top five picks (Tavares, Hedman, Duchene, Kane, and Schenn) the talent level significantly drops off. Why not get the robust golden boy of this year's crop?

When all is said and done, we shed about 6.25 million in salary (Grab and Kabs) and get an NHL ready forward, in addition to keeping Luke Schenn.

Sure we lose a first round pick next year (top five protected), but with the additional cap savings, Burke will be able to consummate some deals via trade or add talent through the UFA pool.

Obviously for this all to happen, NYI will need to draft Hedman.

[matt murphy]

Damien - enjoyed this piece. Well researched and thought out. I like Schenn, but it's way too early to judge his leadership skills (ever met a 19 year old? - yikes!). Also, he's offensively weak, and not good on the powerplay, which doesn't make him a top five defenceman. As a goalie though, I can tell you he is a joy to watch in his own end (unlike Kaberle, who is scary in his zone), but Schenn is not the total package. Keep him if you can, but we need an ace down the middle and - if you watched the World Juniors last winter - that's John Tavares. Then let's see what Burke can do to get him some accompaniment.

[KD]

To either Colorado or Atlanta - one of Kaberle or Kubina (their choice) and #7 for #3 or #4. Use that pick to take Duchesne or Schenn. Then trade the other K and maybe Grabovski or Kulemin for #12-15 in the 1st and 3rd rounds and take Kassian.

[Aaron]

I'd go with the 2 Schenns. Not only are they good players, but they could come at a discounted price in the future if they want to stay together in Toronto.

[Jamie]

Tavares is going to be a huge bust, if we traded schenn for tavares, i would cry.

[KD]

Tavares an "ace down the middle"? Sorry, but I fail to see what the big attraction of Tavares is. From what I've seen of him (WJC, Knights games), he's lost if he's not inside the offensive blue line. When I was a kid (years ago), the term for players like him was "goal suck". If Burke is as smart as he wants everyone to think he is, he'll let Snow draft him for the Isles (and maybe even give him a 15-year contract to go along with DiPietro's), and then go after Duchesne or Schenn. If he can trade with Tampa to get the #2 pick, he can even have Hedman - I'd take any of those 3 ahead of Tavares, and I would add Kane and Ellis to that list too. If by some fluke Tavares does turn out to be the "real thing", they can always sign him as a UFA once he's matured a bit.

[KD]

Damien, I can't believe you said "the bottom line would be Schenn for Tavares" if the Leafs traded Schenn, #7 and another player to get the #1 or #2 pick to draft Tavares. I remember earlier in the season, in this very blog, there was a debate about what the Leafs gave up to get Schenn in the first place, and you were insistent that they gave up 3 draft picks and not the two that many were arguing. Of course, you were right then, so why wouldn't the bottom line be Schenn, Cowen (at #7) and something else for Tavares?

[kyle]

i rather 2 schenns than one tavares

[Mapleloaf]

So many possibilities. One must remember that there are 29 other teams also looking to make good deals to move up or down or shed salary dollars. However, if possible, I would look for a way to get the 5th pick to select Schenn, using Kaberle and Stajan/Grabovski and taking on salary dollars for an overpaid King or Thrasher and keep the 7th pick for Cowan.

Tavares would be great, but I suspect the cost would be too much.

[Norman]

It's a useless discussion. Mr. Hot Air buffoon will neither land Taveras nor Hedman. Everything he's said since the end of the season has been false so far, and this will also turn out to be another one of his tall tales. All smoke and mirrors folks, get used to it. It may have worked in Hollywood, but it won't work here.

[andrew.]

why would atlanta or colorado want kaberle

[Steve]

For all the talk of moving up to #5, it makes Burke's move to bring in Gerber last year look foolish. A short term addition that probably moved the Leafs down in the draft as much as they'd now like to move up to bring in Schenn. Not a bright move!

[donald]

i've been saying this for a long time now...

as much as i like luke schenn, i don't believe he is a true franchise defenceman. look at almost every great defenceman over the history of the sport: what sets them apart is the "full package" aspect of their game. it is the combination of push ahead offence and shut down, suffocating defence that makes them so deadly. they eat minutes both when you need to shut the other team down, AND when you need to score the big goal. heck, usually they are counted on to be part of the big goal to tie, take the lead, or add insurance.

scouts do not line up to sing the offensive praise of luke schenn. while he is a potential shut down d-man, he is never going to be the go-to guy for when the important goals need to be scored. this limits him.

you build good teams around defence:

anaheim: pronger and niedermyer (points AND plus ratings)
boston: chara (points and plus rating)
calgary: phaneuf (usually points and plus rating -- bad year, though)
chicago: campbell (points and plus rating)
detroit: do i even have to say anything?

i don't think i need to go through the alphabet to extend my point.

so, briefly: if possible, get hedman. trade for another shut down stud.

heck, go for tavares and trade for another shut down stud.

but don't halt progress for a stay at home, one-dimension defensive specialist. franchises are not built on them.

[Sandy T.]

After reading all of the above posts, I can guarantee one thing - WHATEVER Brian Burke does tonight, significant numbers of Leaf fans are going to be vociferously unhappy with it.

Being a Leaf fan has always been amusing, but reading the comments of the newer ones - ie those 35 and under - is just a hoot. Thanks all.