It Could Happen

Somehow, the Maple Leafs will make the playoffs.

THE CANADIAN PRESS

Can Toronto turn pre-season success into a playoff berth?

There, I said it. Now it will almost certainly haunt me for the next seven months.

Maybe it’s just a change of pace after predicting non-playoff campaigns over and over in recent years.

But suggesting a Leaf playoff berth certainly isn’t about logic. There are gaping holes in this Toronto lineup that can’t be denied.

But you can bet on an improved sense of team identity to help Brian Burke’s Leafs, and let’s face it, the mediocrity of so many Eastern Conference teams leaves the door wide open for any club able to put together a 93-95 point season.

The most worrisome part of the club, however, is that it is distinctly average to below average down the middle. There isn’t a 60-point pivot on the squad and goaltending remains an enormous question mark.

As I said, picking the Leafs, then, can’t be about logic. It’s more about a feel.

Some thoughts as the pre-season (mercifully) ends:

-- If Vesa Toskala is doing anything but sharing the goaltending load this season, there’s trouble. At 32 coming off hip surgery and a so-so season, Toskala isn’t going to suddenly rival Martin Brodeur, Henrik Lundqvist and Tim Thomas in the east. Ray Emery maybe.

But if Jonas Gustavsson can play 35-40 games and be better in March than he is in October, there’s reason for hope in the Leaf crease, and hope the NHL’s worst defensive team from a year ago can move up to at least be in the top 20.

-- Those who believe the Leafs have all this excess blueline depth that Burke is going to be able to convert into an impact forward are living in a dream world.

Look folks, Ian White is still your No. 5 on defence. If you put Garnet Exelby, Jeff Finger and Mike Van Ryn on waivers today, only Exelby would likely go because of the prohibitive salaries of the other two.

There is no depth of significance here to trade. Tomas Kaberle is still the D-man to move, but now he’d have to waive his no-trade clause again.

-- The swing guy up front has to be John Mitchell, who apparently is now a left winger, not a centre. He loves to tease with his talent but his hockey sense is at times, well, peculiar, and he fades in and out. Mitchell could make a significant difference with this team, but that doesn’t mean he will.

-- Detroit has made a handsome living in recent years with late-blooming Swedes, and it's worth wondering whether the Leafs might have one of their own in Viktor Stalberg.

Not to compare Stalberg to the gifted Johan Franzen, but Franzen didn’t start making an impact until he was 27 years old. Stalberg is similarly sized and with a nose for pucks around the net like the one he re-directed out of mid-air on Saturday night.

That said, don’t be surprised if Stalberg also plays a little in the AHL as well this season.

-- The Leafs were a surprising 10th in NHL offence a year ago, but that was with both Nik Antropov and Dominic Moore having good seasons. They may have trouble keeping that pace up this season, but two players could have more of an impact as the season wears on than they will at the start.

The first, obviously, will be Phil Kessel, likely unavailable until mid-November. He can stretch a defence with his speed, although expectations of his production should be tempered by the fact he will have missed training camp and the first 15-20 games. If he can score between 15 and 20 goals for the Leafs this season, it will be a success.

The second player is Tyler Bozak. He may be with the Marlies by week’s end, but he’s going to play in the NHL this season. He’s somewhat reminiscent of Kyle Wellwood but bigger and, the Leafs hope, more responsible defensively.

-- The Leafs were criticized for acquiring veteran goalie Martin Gerber down the stretch last season because Gerber’s mostly solid play helped turn what might have been a pick in the top three selections in the entry draft into the No. 7 selection.

But maybe doing it the right way, trying to win games instead of tanking, won the Leafs points from the hockey gods as Nazem Kadri, the player drafted with that seventh overall pick, surely looks like a keeper.

But was it really necessary for Ron Wilson to label him a future NHL “superstar?” That tag will follow the kid around for years.

Comments

[Bryan M]

I mostly agree with you Damian. There is certainly a big whole at centre. However, Kessel and Stalberg should replace the scoring of Antropov and Moore and if the Leafs can be 10th in goal scoring again (or in the neighbourhead), they'll be fine. The Leafs have upgraded on defence - Beauchemin and Komisarek are certainly two solid defenders that were not there last year. I agree that it doesn't mean that anyone will want Finger or Exelby, but it should mean whatever goalie is playing will have a bit of an easier time. It also means Kaberle might be able to be more offensive minded.

[John Bastedo]

Damien,

I pretty much agree with this post with one exception - I don't see the Leafs making the playoffs. I think Stalberg looks pretty solid, and my breakthrough player would be Nik Kulemin. But goaltending, penalty killing, and consistent offence will be real challenges for these guys I think. They'll probably finish better than last year, unfortunately, as there won't be any kind of trade deadline youth movement as they dealt their pick for Kessel.

[TAC]

I think the jury is going to be out until about Xmas. Kessel is the variable here. Give him a month in the lineup and then we'll have a better idea of how good/poor the Leafs are.

[Brian]

I do agree with you but key to the Leafs success is not Toskala but Jonas Gustavsson. Toskala continues to let in those soft goals they are killers to a team's confidence. The Leafs have a better Defence this year, the offence will take time to gel. It will be tough to make the 8th spot every year the teams get better and tougher. But my prediction is 8th spot with Ottawa missing the final playoff spot. It will be a race and the final playoff spot will be won this month. If the Leafs stumble out of the gate in the first few months it means another year not in the playoffs. Lastly how long can the friendship of Wilson and Burke go on if they miss the playoffs again. One more thing if the Leafs miss the playoffs that first round pick for Kessel goes higher in the draft.

[Nick Martin]

Yes, they're capable of making the playoffs, with improved defence and goaltending. Seventh or eighth, sure, because so many teams are mediocre. You're talking playoffs, not being on a par with Detroit and Pittsburgh.

[Fred Snodgrass]

Way to take a stand Damien! It "could" happen, but then you cover yourself by ripping the goaltending, forwards, and d-men. When will you make your official move into weather forecasting?

[Bo]

Leafs will be last in the conference. I recommend people buy Center Ice and watch some other teams, Leafs may have got better but so have the rest of the conference.

[chris]

Weren't you the one Damien who at one time predicted the Florida Panthers would win the Stanley Cup? Your track record on predictions isn't exactly stellar.

[m d'ailleurs]

Damian?? for a glass half full kinda guy , your prediction is not only out of character but un warranted. Different philosophy, reason for excitement? Yes, but claiming a playoff spot is pre mature. Me? I think goaltending issue is still an issue. I see Joey having done a better job than "what?me worry" Toskala

[moe green]

Think the leafs will make the playoffs, a gut feeling you say? Damien my friend, you are becoming a leaf fan. Glad to have you aboard. May the hockey gods have mercy on your soul.

[Geoff Read]

Damien Cox! I never thought I'd say this of you: but you have succumbed to the preseason delirium that so often grips "Leaf Nation"! This team will not make the playoffs for two reasons: 1) they have one of the worst groups of forwards in the NHL, period, particularly, as you acknowledge, down the middle. 2) the goaltending is suspect, and that includes the unproven Gustavsson.

Yes, there is some promise here where there wasn't last year. But that promise won't be realized until next year at the earliest.

[Joseph Shlunk]

The Leafs will be the surprise of the EAST. The Red Wings will be the surprise of the WEST.
There will be joy in hog town and sadness in motown. It is still about goaltending.

[The Meatriarchy]

Damo: Agree with your analysis for the most part. I am disappointed that Bozak hasn't been named to the team. I know he was supposed to outplay Stajan and Grabbo to be included but even if he played about the same as Stajan he should have made the team.

To continue your Toskala analogy Stajan isn't suddenly going to turn into a front line centre. Bozak meanwhile has tons of upside. Heck I would take Mitchell as my second line centre before Stajan.

The fact that Stajan and Toskala are still with this team while Bozak and Macdonald aren't makes me a little concerned since Burke and co. adamantly insisted when camp started that there would be real competition and no one was guaranteed a spot. Looks like some spots were more guaranteed than others.

Having said that. I think we will surprise some people this year. A playoff spot is more likely than not in my opinion.

[Matthew Coleman]

Does anyone know the status of Allison? I'm praying he does not make this team. If he does, kiss all your playoff predictions goodbye, IMO.

[Barb Hopkins]

If Toskala remains the #1 goalie, they will never make the playoffs! He is just too small and always on his knees which makes him even smaller. Lots of net to shoot at!

[Topham]

This article could be about any team, and perhaps that's the point. Any team can make the playoffs this year in the East, so why not the Leafs?

[nugentmania]

I don't see them making the playoffs, but the overall direction can take huge strides this year. Not sure about still trading Kaberle, because none of the others can run a PP (note: If Ian White is running your powerplay, then the talk about Toronto's awesome defence stops right here. I don't care how tough the other 5 are). Best case scenario is that Bozak starts to look like he'll bump Matt Stajan out of top 6 spot, and Stalberg scores enough to legitimize Burke's assertion that he's more than compensated for losing the next 2 years 1st rounders. However, coming off an injury and Leaf fans dismissal of the importance of Marc Savard, I bet Kessel doesn't reach 25 goals this year.

[Lew McClain]

I believe the team looks pretty good. The question mark is Toskala. Defense looks solid, there are enough goal scorers on this team to win...

[LT73]

Damian!?

Is this really you?

Or were you abducted by Aliens and replaced by a Leafs Fanboy?

All kidding aside, I too simply 'have the feeling' the Leafs are going to contend for a playoff spot. Our defense core has significantly improved, our team speed is top notch, our forwards are on the small side, but seem willing to compete. Overall, I'm liking our chances.

Having said that, I believe that success or failure hinges on two players - Phil Kessel and Jonas Gustavsson. Can Kessel have the impact we're all hoping he can have after a long layoff (shoulder surgery)? And can Jonas Gustavsson handle 50-60 games when the wheels fall off Vesa Toskala?

Either way, this is going to be fun to watch.

[neil fowler]

Only in Toronto are fans dumb enough to believe this team is playoff bound. Face the facts, Toronto has weak goaltending, very little offense, and an ok defensive core. They have 0 depth on the bench. In today's NHL, where referees call penalties for looking at someone the wrong way, this leafs team is a liability. It will be a steady parade to the penalty box. That means the leafs are gonna be short handed a lot, and that means more goals for opponents.

Come playoff time, the only thing that is going to occur, is the leafs are going golfing, and their fans will do the 40+ year slogan "next year we're cup bound".

[Vava]

Making the playoffs is such a joke when more than half the teams get to achieve this exalted goal. Honestly, this does not impress me in the least. It akin to telling your child that, if they "work hard" and "it all comes together", then maybe, just maybe, you will achieve a C+ average in school. What would be more impressive is if the ACC actually achieved something resembling atmosphere, playoffs or no playoffs.

[Johnny Thunder]

Playoffs no problem.

Quick point- Why do pundits say questions surround the Leafs offence this season, and cite the departure of Moore as a reason? Sure he competed, but no GM looks at the free agent and thinks 'theres the missing piece'. He was a 3rd line player plain and simple.

[Gary]

Yes, they could make the playoffs and finish as high as 6th.
But without goaltending and progress by the young forwards they could also finish 15th and hand the Bruins a lottery pick.
Burke has his butt on the line . Looks good on him, let's see how it works out.

[Stan]

So we have one of the best goalies outside the nhl, and one of the worst goalies inside the nhl... isn't it obvious who the starter should be?

[Clifford Scott]

I mostly agree with this article and particularly about Mitchell who seems to be at this point in his development at least over rated. He doesn't make the best decisions out there much like but not as bad as Grabovski and Mitchell is also not very speedy or quick and not particularly physical or aggressive for a player who certainly has the size to be. The Leafs still have way to many guys who do not play with the necessary tenacity and will to win that is crucial to success.