It Could Happen

Somehow, the Maple Leafs will make the playoffs.

THE CANADIAN PRESS

Can Toronto turn pre-season success into a playoff berth?

There, I said it. Now it will almost certainly haunt me for the next seven months.

Maybe it’s just a change of pace after predicting non-playoff campaigns over and over in recent years.

But suggesting a Leaf playoff berth certainly isn’t about logic. There are gaping holes in this Toronto lineup that can’t be denied.

But you can bet on an improved sense of team identity to help Brian Burke’s Leafs, and let’s face it, the mediocrity of so many Eastern Conference teams leaves the door wide open for any club able to put together a 93-95 point season.

The most worrisome part of the club, however, is that it is distinctly average to below average down the middle. There isn’t a 60-point pivot on the squad and goaltending remains an enormous question mark.

As I said, picking the Leafs, then, can’t be about logic. It’s more about a feel.

Some thoughts as the pre-season (mercifully) ends:

-- If Vesa Toskala is doing anything but sharing the goaltending load this season, there’s trouble. At 32 coming off hip surgery and a so-so season, Toskala isn’t going to suddenly rival Martin Brodeur, Henrik Lundqvist and Tim Thomas in the east. Ray Emery maybe.

But if Jonas Gustavsson can play 35-40 games and be better in March than he is in October, there’s reason for hope in the Leaf crease, and hope the NHL’s worst defensive team from a year ago can move up to at least be in the top 20.

-- Those who believe the Leafs have all this excess blueline depth that Burke is going to be able to convert into an impact forward are living in a dream world.

Look folks, Ian White is still your No. 5 on defence. If you put Garnet Exelby, Jeff Finger and Mike Van Ryn on waivers today, only Exelby would likely go because of the prohibitive salaries of the other two.

There is no depth of significance here to trade. Tomas Kaberle is still the D-man to move, but now he’d have to waive his no-trade clause again.

-- The swing guy up front has to be John Mitchell, who apparently is now a left winger, not a centre. He loves to tease with his talent but his hockey sense is at times, well, peculiar, and he fades in and out. Mitchell could make a significant difference with this team, but that doesn’t mean he will.

-- Detroit has made a handsome living in recent years with late-blooming Swedes, and it's worth wondering whether the Leafs might have one of their own in Viktor Stalberg.

Not to compare Stalberg to the gifted Johan Franzen, but Franzen didn’t start making an impact until he was 27 years old. Stalberg is similarly sized and with a nose for pucks around the net like the one he re-directed out of mid-air on Saturday night.

That said, don’t be surprised if Stalberg also plays a little in the AHL as well this season.

-- The Leafs were a surprising 10th in NHL offence a year ago, but that was with both Nik Antropov and Dominic Moore having good seasons. They may have trouble keeping that pace up this season, but two players could have more of an impact as the season wears on than they will at the start.

The first, obviously, will be Phil Kessel, likely unavailable until mid-November. He can stretch a defence with his speed, although expectations of his production should be tempered by the fact he will have missed training camp and the first 15-20 games. If he can score between 15 and 20 goals for the Leafs this season, it will be a success.

The second player is Tyler Bozak. He may be with the Marlies by week’s end, but he’s going to play in the NHL this season. He’s somewhat reminiscent of Kyle Wellwood but bigger and, the Leafs hope, more responsible defensively.

-- The Leafs were criticized for acquiring veteran goalie Martin Gerber down the stretch last season because Gerber’s mostly solid play helped turn what might have been a pick in the top three selections in the entry draft into the No. 7 selection.

But maybe doing it the right way, trying to win games instead of tanking, won the Leafs points from the hockey gods as Nazem Kadri, the player drafted with that seventh overall pick, surely looks like a keeper.

But was it really necessary for Ron Wilson to label him a future NHL “superstar?” That tag will follow the kid around for years.

Comments

[Sebastian]

decent analysis, and i tend to agree with you with the exception of your last line. Being hastily dubbed a superstar will only "follow him around for years" if those you in the media bring it up every time the kid inevitably takes a misstep in his development. In 5 years time, if all works out well for him or not, they will still only be the words of a coach who undoubtedly no longer coaches the team. If things don't turn out, and you guys decide to use what Wilson said as a prime excuse to Alexandre Daigle the kid in an attempt to demonstrate the franchise's inability to properly develop players, it'll be an editorial decision at that time. For now, I doubt even the most ardent Leaf fan is taking his off-the-cuff remark as anything more than a little hyperbolic fun to egg on a highly impatient fanbase. If it doesn't happen, no one will be cursing Ron Wilson's name, especially not Kadri.

[Bill Rant]

Damien, you are without a doubt the most fair-weather guy in sports, and its a shame that the Star keeps you employed.

[John A]

There is no doubt that they will make the playoffs...there I said it, but the lineup on opening night and what is there in April will be two different things. Wilson will be loyal to the Vets on opening night, not because they have earned it after a 4 year playoff drought but hopefully so he can shop some of them quickly. Watching a toilet bowl flush is more exciting, faster and creative than watching Poni, Stajan and or Stemp in any top six forward billet. Also, Exelby has not wowed us with his D skills but he was brought into to deliver some serious mean and I think he has lived up to his end of the bargain so far.

[Conn Smythe]

As a die - hard Leaf fan, I want to agree with Damien about the Leafs making the play - off's, but I just don't see it. Too me, goaltending is the biggest concern. I think the offense will be there, but without vastly improved goaltending, we will be on the outside looking in.

[Chris Burgess]

Damien,
I get the sense you're writting today about the Leafs making the post season, so it will be less awkward for you later when you hop back on the old band wagon. It must be tough being a leaf hater in Toronto what with the winds of change continuing to blow so strongly.

[Robert Bates]

Bobcat Bob comments:
No playoffs for the Leafs this year. Who will score? Just a terrible group of American hockey league forwards. You will be very disappointed in Kessel ( A one year wonder with a bad attitude). Terrible goaltending - no matter who your starter is you have the first goaltending in the league. Then Brian Burke - his great move bring in the goons and take a lot of penalties.
Oh Brian, do you not realize that the Maple Leafs have the worst PK in hockey for 2 years running. Last place is the leaf destination.

[Tim]

So are we supposed to be happy? Isn't this what everyone is complaining about? Teams that just make the playoffs and provide MLSE with playoff revenue for a round or two?
I thought we wanted last place teams and high draft picks.

Help me find out what page we are on so we can all sing the same song.

[Susan]

Please don't tell me that you are a Leafs' fan. I'm so tired of listening to delusional Leaf fans who think over and over again that "this is going to be the year". I'm glad to see that they are finally re-building but that's exactly it...they are rebuilding. Besides, pre-season is too early to be making quasi-predictions. I'm not really sure what made you think that they have a chance anyway...was it the first goal Toskala let in the other night?

[Halfwit Hopeful]

Your assessment of Toskala has hit the nail on the head. Regardless of his personal opinion, the less time minding the Leaf's net, the more success they stand to gain. Perhaps Burke can pull a fast one and unload him before his contract expires, even for a modicum in return.

[Allison Gowling]

The season has not even started.

And you are talking about playoffs?

Hope springs eternal with Leaf fans.

Thank God I am an acedemic and intellectual, who refereed hockey for 30 years, including the NHL.

There is more to life than sports.

[Conn Smythe]

'Bobcat Bob comments:
No playoffs for the Leafs this year. Who will score? Just a terrible group of American hockey league forwards. You will be very disappointed in Kessel ( A one year wonder with a bad attitude). Terrible goaltending - no matter who your starter is you have the first goaltending in the league. Then Brian Burke - his great move bring in the goons and take a lot of penalties.'

Thanks for the laugh - how exactly is Kessel a 'one year wonder' when he's increased his goal total year after year. Do everyone else a favour - try writing about what you know - whatever that is.

[Jimbo]

I don't know who you are or what you did with Damien Cox, but you better send him back. All the leaf bashers will miss him.

[John Chow]

Nick Anthropov, 28 YRS old never had a minus season,regardless of how many minutes he log in penalty kills. He could have stayed with Toronto for 3 mill, but Burke made up his mind.

The two sore point in the line-up are the 4 mill Jason Blake, & 4 Million Finger. Burke can put Van Ryan through disable now & then to save cap. Bring atleast one roaster spot for any promising yong guys.

Still, this team is destined to make play-off this year. Young guys will work their tails off for not to get shipped out of town.

[rufasrastasjohnsonbrown]

May 2,1967,before I was born ,42 years ago & the leafs are going to make 1st round elimination playoffs.Please stop.

[dom the bomb]

You are right about was it really necessary to rate him as a future superstar,,last time I checked,,when was the last time the leafs had anything that you can call a superstar,,,think about it,,a long time,,,,also when he goes back to the juniors he is going to have a target on his back,,feel sorry for the kid,,,anyway with regards to the playoffs,,the season is so long and the factor of injuries,,etc,,many variables,,,anything can happen in sports,

[kerry]

I suspect a more likely scenario sees Toronto make a run at the playoffs, finish 9th or 10th, and miss out on a lottery pick AGAIN.

[Derp]

15 "Pivots" had more than 60 points last season, and the 15th on the list is Phil Kessel so Mr. Cox as usual you are mistaken because you didn't bother to actually check who was on the list of 60-points&plus at the position of centre. Considering that out of the 15, a few of them were teammates I'd argue that it isn't very much of an arguement because if the wingers put up the points it doesn't really matter what the centre does other than be solid both ways (which Stajan is very clearly adept at doing).

[Cory]

Chill out, people. This is a pre-season prediction on Damien's blog, just saying he feels like somehow this team will sneak into the playoffs. We have six months and 82 games to find out if it's true, but you people get so worked up about it, as if you have all the answers before the puck drops. If you know who the next big star is, or how many points Stajan will get, or what Toskala's save percentage will be, even before the first game, then I suggest you take up a different hobby.

[Carm]

Goaltending is, as you point out Damien, an enormous question mark but that cuts both ways. It isn't a done deal that it will be bad any more than it's a certainty that it will be good. Hence the question mark. This is perferable to it being just plain hopelessly bad. Gustavsson has good potential but is unproven. Toskala has played well in the past but is coming off a very bad season that may or may not have turned out that way due to injury. Flip a coin. Heads the goaltending holds up, tails it all comes apart. As for the team being weak down the middle, hockey is a team game. Whereas the Leafs are not the strongest team down the middle, the scoring off the wing is above average in that the Leafs have more wingers likely to surpass 20 goals than most NHL teams. I see a team quite capable of rolling three scoring lines though it is a significant problem that Grabovski is defensively so suspect. On the other hand, Bozak has the potential to step up and allow the Leafs to address the defensive problems caused by Grabovski's sloppy play.

There are concerns, as you rightly note. But it's not a given that solutions will fail to materialize. Besides, the Leafs not making the playoffs because of a few issues works on the assumption that there are eight other teams in the conference with no such issues. Good luck with that.

[Johnny the Juice]

LOL no chance...

[rudiger]

talk about your catch - 22 situation

say the leafs are going to make the playoffs and get bashed for 'preseason delirium '

say they won't and get bashed for always being negative, hate the leafs, etc

you just can't win Damien

[Steve-O]

Call me an optimist but I like our goaltending situation better than pretty anyone in the East outside of the Rangers, Carolina and maybe Pitt. Am I the only one who thinks Timmy T is waay overrated? DOn't get me wrong he won the vezina last year & all but there have been many one-year wonders that have won it previously (Carey) and if it wasn't for the Big Z his poor rebound control would come back to haunt him more often.

[adam]

"So we have one of the best goalies outside the nhl, and one of the worst goalies inside the nhl... isn't it obvious who the starter should be?"

Jason Pogge... opps sorry I thought this was the Great Jason Pogge vs Toskala debate.

[Dave Uxbridge]

Comment re The Kessell Trade. It's a good one. Why? Check the stats for success of 1st and 2nd round picks, they aren't very good and if they are more often than not the wait is 3 to 4 years. Why is this trade good? Think back to June 09, proposed trade was Kessel for Kaberle and a first rounder. So in reality the trade actually became Kessel & Kaberle for 2 first rounders and a second. Who wouldn't make this trade all day long. Hockey like life is a matter of perspective. The reality of the first proposed trade was that Kaberle was gone...now he isn't and could end up being the best trade they didn't make. David Uxbridge

[Robert Bates]

Bobcat Bob comments;
No playoffs for the Leafs this year or the next 4 years. Burke is an overated blowhard jerk. Terrible additions to the team - just more penalties - and Leafs are the worst in the NHL two years running at killing penalties. Kessel will disappoint. Weakest goaltending in the league. Snap out of it Leaf fans. You are closer to dead last in the league than making the playoffs.