Halfway to Something or Somewhere

Another weird weekend to be a Maple Leafs fan.

By 11 p.m. on Saturday, there could only have been consternation, with the club having blown a game in OT to division rival Montreal.

By 11 p.m. last night, after a surprising victory in Pittsburgh, the very same observers could feel content and hopeful over a three-of-a-possible-four-points weekend.

Nice rollercoaster.

Wednesday night in Edmonton will be game No. 41 for the Leafs, the halfway mark of the 2009-10 season. The trip goes on to Calgary on Saturday, and while road games aren't easy, it's hardly the same as years ago when such a trip was a visit to Alberta's Death Valley. Heck, the lowly St. Louis Blues marched through all of western Canada last month and won three games against the Canucks, Flames and Oilers.

Last night's game had to be an encouraging one for Ron Wilson's team. After allowing Evgeny Malkin to set up Mike Rupp for a late tying goal, the Leafs victimized the same Malkin for his defensive laziness moments later, allowing Ian White — after good work by Jason Blake, Lee Stempniak and Francois Beauchemin — to hammer home the winning goal.

With 37 points, the Leafs are probably out of danger of finishing last overall, although as long as they're in the bottom five there's still the chance that the Boston Bruins could use Toronto's pick and, through the draft lottery, pick first overall next June.

Who exactly gets that pick and the right to draft Taylor Hall shouldn't matter any more to Leaf fans. But given the Phil Kessel deal, it's apparent folks would be happier if Hall went to Carolina or Edmonton or wherever, as if denying Boston the top pick will somehow make the trade or the Leafs better.

My advice? Appreciate Kessel's ability and potential and hope he develops into a star capable of carrying the club. If the Leafs ever do return to the Stanley Cup final in our lifetime, they won't be playing the Bruins.

Since starting 1-7-3, the Leafs are 13-10-6 for a points percentage of .551. That's better, but not good enough to get to the post-season. A sizzling finish, say something along the lines of .666 play (say 25-11-6), would make it a 93-point season and probably get the Leafs through to the playoffs. That said, Atlanta holds down eighth in the Eastern Conference and is playing at an 88-point clip, so maybe less will be needed.

Right now, the Leafs would end up with about 83 points if they continue garnering points at the same pace they have over the past 29 games, likely good for 26th or 27th. That wouldn't be good enough for the playoffs, but would keep the Bruins out of the lottery.

Guess it's all about how one measures success.

The asterisk here is that the Leafs, really, have been remarkably healthy so far, with eight regulars having skated in every game this season. The injuries have been manageable and haven't come in difficult groups, except for the time when both Jonas Gustavsson and Vesa Toskala were ailing.

Mike Van Ryn, of course, was lost early. John MItchell was lost at the 22-game mark, ruining his contract season, promising defenceman Carl Gunnarson went down after a handful of games, Mike Komisarek missed eight games and Viktor Stalberg has been injured twice, limiting him to 11 games after a terrific training camp.

If that good injury luck continues, the Leafs could yet make noise in the east. If not, look out. Having a surprising number of Olympians, however, will add strain to those athletes.

The brightest notes so far? The effort of Blake, the steady improvement of Nikolai Kulemin, the obvious promise of Gustavsson, the point production of Tomas Kaberle and Kessel's immediate impact.

Darker tones? Try Jeff Finger (minus-11 in 22 games, $3.5 million for each of the next two seasons), the ongoing struggles of Luke Schenn, invisible Rickard Wallin (albeit better lately) and the continuing tease of Alexei Ponikarovsky.

Let the rollercoaster continue.

Comments

[Ian Kinsey]

As of this writing the Leafs (14th overall) are only 3 points out of playoff contention and less than 10 from 5th place Boston. Being a devout Leaf fan in Vancouver has been a daunting and leaving one subject to ridicule; if not pity. But this year Leaf supporters on the Pacific coast have been given hope; hope that there's a chance we'll see actually see Mr. Wilson's squad in the post season. Go Leafs Go!

[hoofheartz]

I'll admit that I'm not a professional scout, coach or manager, but I fail to see what the Maple Leafs see in Ponikarovsky. He has got to be the softest big man in all of professional hockey and is positively invisible for extremely long stretches at a time. I have noticed recently that he has been playing down on the 4th line and perhaps thats were he needs to be to make an impact on him.

[Simmer]

Its really a sad thing what has happened with Van Ryn. Although he isn't a gamebreaker, I have always liked his play in Florida and through his limited time in Toronto. It would be nice to see him healthy for once. I guess someone has to fill Coliaccovo's shoes.

[CarmB]

While making the playoffs or at least avoiding handing over a lottery pick (though it hardly matters now, as you point out, who the Bruins draft) would be considered good to have happen, the real measure of the Leafs' progress is where their goals against is headed. Even if the Leafs miss the playoffs but make progress in terms of becoming a tougher team to score against, that's a good foundation to build on going into next season.

Until the Leafs are better at shutting opposing teams down, no meaningful success is possible. Good defence becomes more important in the second half when goals are tougher to come by. Good defence becomes critical in the playoffs. The Leafs right now are about a goal a game too generous. In December the Leafs have had a GAA of 3.13. They've allowed more than three goals in four of 15 games and not surprisingly lost them all. On the other hand, in the other 11 games, they are 8-1-2. In other words, to have a good shot at beating the Leafs in the past month, a team pretty much needed to score more than three goals against them.

That indicates a team with offensive skill, more than it's given credit for, but with some fatal weaknesses at the other end of the ice. Address those weaknesses and there is a lot to like going forward.

[foundonroaddead]

Thomas Kaberle has to be the CAPTAIN. the "A" guys will be White and Ponikarovsky.EVERY game there must be different line-ups with each team . all four lines needs to have grinder , play-maker , goal scorer. yes , of course , all the players MUST be 2-way players themselves if not they can go to Marlies for all I care.This way , the opponents will have hard time matching up with any of those 4 lines. Kaberle- Schenn has to be together.( Luke will vastly improve under Thomas' wing ) White-Beauchemin - it will be 1-2 punch tandem on any given nights without a doubt. Excelby-Komisarek would be the 3rd pairing cause they got the smarts for knocking anyone down that goes into their zone. This is the only way they'll make the play-offs.
GO LEAFS GO