Well, it appears the Maple Leafs are planning to take their fans on quite the rollercoaster ride this season.
Awful to start the season, followed by a spurt to get near playoff contention, then a lousy home ice performance against the very beatable Phoenix Coyotes. What lies ahead in Buffalo tomorrow and then at home to Boston on Saturday is anyone's guess.
Part of being not very good is a lack of consistency, and that's what you're going to see from the Leafs for the rest of the way. The interesting scenario will unfold in February when the Leafs will have to figure out if they are close enough to make an effort to qualify for post-season play, or whether the market will allow them to dump some players for picks and/or prospects.
You can expect negotiations between GM Brian Burke and the club's myriad of impending free agents to begin sometime in the New Year, with restricted free agent defenceman Ian White probably at the top of the list. At $950,000 this season, White is up for a major raise, and he's probably the player the Leafs want to make sure they retain.
Other restricted free agents are John Mitchell, Nikolai Kulemin and Christian Hanson. The unrestricted list includes goalies Vesa Toskala and Joey MacDonald, defencemen Garnet Exelby and Mike Van Ryn, and forwards Matt Stajan, Lee Stempniak, Jamal Mayers, Alexei Ponikarovsky and Wayne Primeau.
The negotiation strategy of the Leafs for most of these players will likely be along the lines of “What amount would make you want to stay” rather than “How much do you want?” The Stajan negotiation in particular will be intriguing given how his numbers have picked up since he started working well alongside Phil Kessel.
You can bet the Leafs won't want to make him a $4 million centre even if his numbers with Kessel suggest a point-per-game pivot.
So let the talks begin. And now on to this week's mail bag, the last for 2009, although for those interested, we'll have another live on-line chat on Monday at noon:
Q: Hi Damien,
I saw you on the pre-season show on TSN
called 'The Reporters'. On that show you were the only one of
the reporters that said the Leafs will make the playoffs. I know
things are never as bad as they seem (their horrible start) and they
are never as good as they seem (recent hot streak). Do you
still think they will make the playoffs and are you surprised by
their remarkable climb in the standings?
John Fava, North Bay
A: Hey, I'm no soothsayer. For a while
there, it looked like I was right off my rocker for suggesting the
playoffs were a possibility. But improved play from the Leafs plus
the general mediocrity of the Eastern Conference have made for a very
forgiving environment for the Leafs. I mean, they're still second
last in the league with just 12 wins in 34 games, but only four
points out of eighth. So do I think they'll make it? Even if they do,
I don't think they can make much of an impact, but with no first
round pick, there's not much to be gained by dumping out on the
season. I would say that if Jonas Gustavsson can come back – he's
expected to play against either the Sabres or Bruins – and give the
club very good goaltending, with Toskala continuing to play better as
he has of late, they can make it. But the performance last night
against Phoenix had to be deflating.
Q: You suggested that Luke Schenn be
sent to the Marlies for seasoning. Would it be possible to send him
back to junior, where presumably he would get even more opportunities
than he would in the AHL? Also, could/would the Leafs loan him to the
junior team for the WJC in a few weeks? I know it is cutting it
close, but it would probably help Schenn and the Jr. Nats.
Also, have there been any impressive
defensemen on the Marlies this season, besides Gunnarson who has
already earned a spot on the Leafs?
John Hunt, Harvard, Mass.
A: Schenn can't go back to junior and
can't be loaned to WJC team. Too old.
The blueliner to watch with the Marlies
is 21-year-old, 6-foot-4 Juraj Mikus. He looked good at the Leaf camp
in September, the reports have generally been good this season.
Q: My wife and I watch every Leafs game
on Sat TV, we drive 10 hrs each way several times a year to Toronto
from Connecticut, see the Leafs at Boston, at New York. We go to Yale
hockey games with 2,000 people that are much louder than the ACC
crowds of 19,000. I don't expect the Johnstown Jets fans like in
Slapshot, but it's almost not worth the time and expense going to the
ACC anymore. Why is such a fanatical fan base so quiet? They remind
me of the Hartford Whalers crowd when it became all corporate people
in the stands.
Jim Barraford, Rockfall, Conn.
A: Well, that's about the size of it.
Corporate presence writes the cheques for the Leafs, but kills the
enthusiasm and the atmosphere. It's been that way for a long, long
time. To be fair, a better team might improve that. You've gotta give
people something to cheer for, after all.
Q: Hi Damien,
Can you explain the riddle of Rickard
Wallin's presence in the lineup? 24GP, 2 points and a minus 2 - yet
he's not been banished to either the Marlies or the Press Box. Was he
part of a package deal wherein The Monster wouldn't sign unless his
buddy was able to come with?
Michael Stonehouse, Toronto
A: I really can't explain it. I think
Wallin has been a big nothing, not even close to the player that
Domenic Moore could have been. I must tell you this one's a bit of a
mystery to me. But I do know he was helpful to some degree in the
recruitment of Gustavsson.
Q: Why do the Leafs have the worst PK
in the entire league? And by miles? Are the defense that bad? Or is
it the goaltending? Given Wilson's pedigree, this stat is a real
puzzler for me. Any thoughts?
Moe Green, Austin
A: Well, your best penalty killer is
always your goalie, and Leaf goaltending has been iffy for a good
while. This isn't a team with a lot of shot blockers, and there seems
to be little consistency in whether the Leafs want to be aggressive
on the PK, or passive. Seems to be a combination of personnel and
scheme, but doesn't appear dramatically improved, that's for sure.
Q: Hey Damien,
What's the deal with Jason Blake? He
has more high sticking penalties in the last week than he has
goals all year. In your mind is he contributing at all?
Also, why doesn't he stop pretending
that he is a perpetual 40 goal scorer, realize that was an
anomaly and start playing like the pest he was when he was an
Islander. I could tolerate him as a pest, but not as an
underproducing "scorer". Surely Ron Wilson doesn't think
this guy is the second coming of Brett Hull...so why doesn't he
ask Blake to play like a pest and forget about being an
offensive juggernaut?
Thanks,
Lou Polite, Toronto
A: I don't think you can ask a player
to play like a pest. It's either in him or it isn't, and Blake
doesn't want to be that player any more. He wants to be a scorer. I
actually think he's been a very good effort guy for the Leafs this
season, but at this point in his career, he is what he is, a decent
scorer and sometimes energy player with two more years left on his
contract at $3 million per.
Q: Hi, Damien
Phil Kessel has added a lot of life to
the Leafs, but do you think there's any danger of him wearing
out his welcome like he appears to have done in Boston?
Watching him play, he seems like a bit
of a puck hog, and often shoots from bad angles. Also, Ron
Wilson did mention it can be hard to get him off the ice, do you
reckon that after a while team-mates might find that
frustrating?
Robert Oulton, Dartmouth
A: Sure. But he's a young player still
learning the game. As I've said repeatedly, he's not yet a finished
product. Guys who can score can get away with stuff that limited
offensive players can't, and Kessel is clearly a gifted attacker.
When he has the puck, he's a threat. I'm not so sure about the
wearing-out-his-welcome-in-Boston part. They chose to pay other guys
and wanted to keep him, but at a lower number. I think its
unfortunate that frequently when a player moves on, his former team
feels the need to trash him to legitimize the deal. Given that they
are trying to win the Cup this season, I'm pretty sure the Bruins
would rather still have Kessel than the first round draft picks they
got from Toronto.
Q: As a passionate Leaf fan I spend
about as much time following the rest of the Northeast as I do
the Leafs. This has led me to wonder how Bob Gainey still has a job.
Ryder, Komisarek, Streit, Souray,
Kovalev, Koivu, Tanguay. While the values/salary demands of
each player vary it is hard to imagine not one of them being resigned
or traded for something, even a late rounder, in return when he
knew in advance they would not return.
Pile this on top of the Ribero +6th
rounder trade a few years ago for Janne Niinimaa and a 5th.
Then, one that could be in the top-10
worst trades of the decade: Higgins, McDonagh, Janik and
Valentenko for Pyatt, Busto and Scott 'the most overpaid player in
the league' Gomez.
Not to mention some of his FA signings
and the Carbonneau blindside. Why arent fans calling for
change? Is he nearing his end?
K. Bosley, Ottawa
A: Oh, I think there are fans calling
for Gainey's head. And if the Habs don't make the playoffs this
season, it may be his last year, particularly with new ownership now
on board. What seemed so promising in Montreal just 18 months ago
seems so mediocre now. That said, losing Andrei Markov at the
beginning of this season was just a killer injury for the Habs to
deal with.
Q: Hi Damien,
As of this writing it
looks like there are multiple teams interested in claiming Koistinen
off waivers. If 3 teams put in a claim, how is the winner
chosen? If it's just a ranking system does it reset every
year at the draft or is it continuous? Thanks for your help,
Josh Weber, Waterloo
A: Priority is determined by reverse
order of the standings on the day the player is placed on waivers. If
three teams put in a claim, the worst team gets the player.
Q: I wanted to get your opinion on Jiri
Tlusty's tenure in Toronto. I thought it was unfair that you
referenced his nude photos he sent out almost three years ago.
Everyone seems to accept that he was
young and made a mistake. I enjoyed watching the 'Naked Gun'
score lots of goals for the Marlies, and I prefer to remember him
that way.
Unfortunately, some will not remember
him for that due to your parting comments. Do you think they
were fully necessary to sum up Tlusty's time in Toronto?
John Mullrooney, Calgary
A: I respect your thoughts. I don't think I “summed up” Tlusty's days with the Leafs by that particular mini-controversy, but I do think it contributed to the fact the kid just never seemed at ease, at least not when he had to play under the big lights with the parent club. He was young and he did make a mistake, and I don't think I was flogging him for that. But people remember, and it certainly indicates that young players with a high-profile club like the Leafs need to be aware of their actions, as do players with the Dallas Cowboys or New York Yankees. If Tlusty had been a Nashville Predator when he published the photos, nobody would have noticed.
That said, if he had been able to perform effectively for the Leafs during his many callups, the Internet caper wouldn't have mattered at all. But he couldn't.
By the way, Tlusty scored in a game for Carolina last week, but then had to return to Toronto to deal with immigration issues. It's not clear how long the holdup will be.
The Mail Bag will return in the new year. Click here to submit a question.
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