Arms race now on after Kovalchuk deal

The Atlanta Thrashers did not get value for Ilya Kovalchuk. Not even close.

Then again, getting equal value was nearly an impossible task for Atlanta GM Don Waddell given that Kovalchuk was set to be an unrestricted free agent. So just as was the case with Marian Hossa two years ago, Waddell did the best he could.

And therein lies the lesson. Again.

NHL teams don't seem to want to absorb the concept that if you go into a season with a star player facing unrestricted free agency, chances are that player isn't going to sign a new contract. Why would he? Having gone that far, at that point it just makes sense to test the market.

It was that way last season with the Florida Panthers and Jay Bouwmeester, and the Panthers took an even bigger bath than the Thrashers, losing Bouwmeester to free agency with almost no return.

And it will be that way the next time a marquee talent goes into the final year of his contract.
You might get something. But never enough.

Atlanta got bits and pieces, a decent prospect in Patrice Cormier, a useful defenceman in Johnny Oduya, a possible scorer in Niclas Bergfors and a first-round pick.

But nothing special. And while New Jersey, Kovalchuk's new home, is almost certainly looking at this as a rental situation - no way would the Devils pay Kovalchuk twice Marty Brodeur's salary of $5.2 million - the Devils can live with giving up those assets for less than one third of the regular season and the playoffs.

No problem.

If Atlanta wanted more for Kovalchuk, they had to trade him last season, or at the very least, last summer.

Once this season began, all the leverage went to the player and the Thrashers essentially committed themselves to losing their best player for not much in return.

And the Devils were the beneficiary.

It will be interesting to see how the other big players in the Eastern Conference - Washington, Pittsburgh, etc. - respond to Jersey's bold move. The arms race is surely now on, but there may not be players available that can approximate Kovalchuk's possible impact with the Devils.

Does it now make the Devils favourites in the east over the Caps and Pens? No. But it gives the Devils two big guns up front in Kovalchuk and Zach Parise, three if Patrick Elias can bounce back from injury and finish the season strongly.

Oduya was a very useful guy on the back end, meanwhile, so in the same vein, the ability of Paul Martin to return after the Olympics at a high level will play a major role in how deep Jersey can go.

The best news is that despite the heaviest workload in hockey, goalie Martin Brodeur isn't feeling the least bit tired.

"I feel the best I've felt in. . .well. . .the best I've felt ever," said Brodeur this week, crediting his two-year-old committment to a new nutrition and conditioning program.

Comments

[Jeremy Scott]

Try being a leafs fan with Sundin. At least Kovalchuk didn't screw his team like that loser Mats did. Good bye Sundin, I hope the door didn't hit you on the way out

[victor]

Is it just me or is trading season shaping to be the most exciting one we have had in years?

[John Bastedo]

Oversimplification.

There are obvious examples of teams that stuck with their players in the last year of a contract, and still managed to resign them - such as the Sedins, Niedermayer, N. Backstrom, Thomas, Zetterberg, and Franzen just last season. You, yourself have many times cautioned exuberant Leaf fans that the list of Unrestricted free agents doesn't matter until July 1, because so many teams get contracts done.

Furthermore, I don't see where you can assume that the trade value was higher last summer. Would the Devils - who eventually made the best offer - have even been a part of this process if they had to pay Kovalchuk's annual salary of $7.5 mil(US)? It seems unlikely. Can you sight any instance where a team traded a star player one year ahead of free agency and received back an asset of equal value to what they traded?

In this cap world Kovalchuk's value without a long term contract may have been highest in the exact scenario that played out - do your best to sign him, let his cap number fall, and deal him when the greatest number of teams can take part in the process.

Many members of the media seem to judge this type of deal, seemingly without basis. If you have knowledge of a summertime blockbuster that was turned down by Atlanta we'd love to hear about it, but it would be the first of its kind.

J.

[jim]

atlanta was a big winner - kovalchuk is an overpaid floater and this way they save 100 million on his contract - watch for burke to try to sign him in the off-season, this is the kind of deal the leafs love - like jason blake, only WAY WORSE.

[Baruch Spinoza]

jeremy scott,

truly you are an ignorant fool. for you to call sundin--the single best player to ever wear a leafs uniform--a fool reflects so poorly on you. he is a player not a gm. the place to judge his value is on the ice, not team management.

are you capable of understanding that fundamental difference? was there ever a time when he wasn't far and away the bst player on the leafs? and how exactly did he 'screw' his team by being the best player on the ice? oh , right. i forgot, you confused being a player with being a gm.

wake up and stop embarassing yourself. honestly, it is idiotic fans like you that test my patience for the so-called leafs nation.

[A-Mar]

Rick Nash.
But generally you are right that marquee players can fetch more at the beginning of the season... if for no other reason than to grant their new teams a longer window in which to sign them.

[jim]

regarding sundin, he had a NO TRADE contract. maybe he signed that contract because he didn't want to be traded? the team agreed to it - so how can you turn around and say he "screwed the team" for his asking the team to honour the contract that THE TEAM SIGNED?

[Earl the Pearl]

I disagree. The Thrashers got great value for Kovalchuk. The Devils have to sign him to a long term contract or else they've seriously impacted their roster talent for the next few years.

[journeyman]

Don Waddell might look a whole lot better if Kovy signs with the KHL. Not such a bad deal then. Bergfors has a big upside. And Oduya is solid.

Pundits can dismiss the KHL but they play high quality hockey. And the big ice surfaces might be an attraction not to mention playing atbhome for a lot of money.

It would be nice to see a series between winners of each league.

[robguy]

@jeremy - How in the world does Sundin screw the Leafs and how does that compare? Since when is the player obliged to make a deal for the team? The onus is on the team to manage their assets. Sundin showed his loyalty by sticking with the team for years and not holding the Leafs for a ransom ever. And as if Kovalchuk was thinking about his team in this instance.
The sense of entitlement from some Leaf fans is simply shocking.

[DarkPhoenix]

Fact is, this is a stupid deal for both sides. Atlanta got way less than fair value for Kovalchuk, and this may cost Waddell his job. And no way Kovalchuk fits in Jersey with Jacques "you score over 30 and you're benched" Lemaire coaching the team; he's going to want one of the game's elite scorers to play all-out defense. I'll be utterly shocked if Kovalchuk wants to stay there for longer than a month; like Gaborik, he'll likely become angry about being held back when scoring goals is waht he's good at.

[Johnnnnnny Cake]

2 things...

1) Baruch, the single best player to ever wear a Leafs uniform wore #21 decades ago, never mistake that.

2) Ray Shero will make one more bold move to give Sid another winger, and once that happens, count them as a repeat winner - you can tell your friends I said that!

John

[Garry Siskos]

Hey, it's a business. Most players are just meat, and go through the grinder anyways. Leaf Sports and Entertainment have screwed fans for years, putting a lame product on the ice, and excpecting top dollar. They're just a more sophisticated "Harold Ballard" group. Bring back Steve Stavro, a guy who built a team and gave Leaf fans some hope.

Good for Kovalchuk, Jersey is a class organziation, committed to winning. Maybe that's why he didn't want to stay in Atlanta.

[B Archer]

Waddell blew it.

The minute he announced to the world how much Kovalchuk had turned down, he degraded the value of his tradeable asset.

Instead of having teams willing to make a trade for a rental plus the first right to potentially reach a longer term agreement with Kovalchuk, Waddell made it clear that Kovalchuk would be going to the free agent market - no matter what.

Waddell should have kept the rejected contract information to himself, perhaps even telling potential trade partners that Kovalchuk wanted in excess of, say, $7 Million per season, and leave it at that. Also, infer that Kovalchuck may be signable simply by insisting that an additional draft pick - perhaps a 2nd rounder - would have to be added to the mix if the other team was successful in signing Kovalchuk prior to free agency. Of course, once the deal was done, and the other team found out exactly what Kovalchuk was demanding, it would be too late to go back on the deal.

Once the trade press conference was held by Waddell, only then would he detail to the Atlanta fans and media the nature of the contract offers that Kovalchuk had rejected, thereby showing the trade was in the best interests of the franchise.

Now, if anyone thinks this would be a misleading trade practice on Waddell's part - think again -- all Waddell is legally bound to share is the health and current contract status of the player involved. Information about rejected contract overtures need not be part of the negotiation, and, of course, his demands for $11.35 Million per season is "in excess" of $7 Million, so Waddell would have been accurate in his statement.

Clearly, Waddell blew it. I'm surprised nobody else (at least not publically)has questioned the wisdom of his asset management techniques.

[Peter]

Baruch Spinoza,

Right on! But you are wasting your breath on idiots like Jeremy Scott. I don't think he has any clue what you are talking about. and it's pretty funny that somebody is still hung up on Sundin, more than a year after he left.
Kovalchuk is a rental player for this year, after that he will be gone from the NHL. no way anybody will pay the ridiculous price he's asking. nobody can afford that.

[Clevie Baron]

Baruch,
What Jeremy was referring to was Sundin's decision not to waive his no-trade clause to allow the Leafs to move him at the trade deadline two years ago, saying he wanted to help the team make the playoffs, as his stated ultimate goal was to win a Cup with the Leafs, not as a rental player with some other team.
So he played out the string with the Leafs, then sat out half a year leaving the Leafs hanging as to whether he was coming back, and then signed on with Vancouver AS A RENTAL PLAYER for 2 months.

[Eric]

you mean: "an *evil* prospect in Patrice Cormier"

[Johnnyk]

Lou is a smart guy. He knows Kova's defects but he can live with them for the playoff run. Cut him and his $100 mil demands loose at the end of the season and let Kova try his luck. I doubt there will be many takers apart from the KHL, who's got the money and who wants the hassle?

[Chris]

I don't see this as being a bad deal for Waddel. He essentialy got more than the Bruins did for Phil Kessel (unless the lottery pick turns into an Ilya Kovalchuk). He got 1st round picks and a second: This year's and 22 year old Bergfors who was a 1st rounder in 2005 and has 13 goals on a Jaques Lemaire team which is a feat in itself as well as 2nd rounder Cormier. Furthermore, he got 28 year old Oduya who was the Devils second best defenceman. At least in Toronto's case they got a 22 year old 5th overall from '06 and locked him up for five years. If the Devils win the Cup then it's a great deal but what if Kovalchuk doesn't re-sign with them? Then what? You've given up four assets under 28 years old, two of which have proven they can play in the NHL, to get a few games out of a player. Even worse, what if Phaneuf dummies Kovalchuk in the first shift of tonights game and puts him out for the season? What if Kovalchuk gets hurt in the Olympics? At least if the same happened to Kessel the Leafs would know they've got him next year, and the year after etc. There's that remote possibility that the Devls could have paid that much for this guy to play a shift or a game. At least the market is set now. For a marquee player like Kovalchuk you can get a top four defenceman, a first round draft pick, a blue chip prospect and a solid prospect with potential. Kabby's value just got set at at LEAST a first rounder and a prospect when you consider that he's among the top defencemen in the league in terms of points and that he has one year left on a deal that pays him below his market value.

[Fat Mike]

Well said Baruch. Sundin simply fulfilled his contractual obligations. If fans still want to be mad at someone (one and half years later) look at JFJ who handed out NTC's like candy on halloween.

[adam]

Hey Baruch Spinoza... He's saying Sundin screwed the Leafs by refusing to waive his no trade and thus leaving nothing for the Leafs in his wake.

It is fair to say he had a right to not waive the clause, of course, it was in his contract. However, he claimed to want the best for Leafs for employing him for 13+ years, and his reasoning for not allowing a trade (even to a preferred list of teams) was that he didn't want to be playing for a cup as a 'rental player'. Fine, EXCEPT FOR THE FACT HE SIGNED WITH THE CANUCKS AS A RENTAL PLAYER THE FOLLOWING YEAR.

Yup, Mr. Sundin screwed the Leafs and Leaf's fans... how much better would the Leafs look now if they had another '08 1st rounder and a previously drafted prospect developing alongside Schenn right now?

I'm sick of Leaf fans saying "oh don't criticise Sundin, he gave the Leafs his all for so many years." HE WAS MERELY PLAYING FOR HIS MULTI-MILLION DOLLAR PAYCHEQUES. HE DIDN'T REALLY TRULY CARE ABOUT THE LEAFS AS DEMONSTRATED IN THE WAY HE LEFT.

[andrew]

Baruch Spinoza,
Think about it for a minute, he's saying that Sundin "screwed" the Leafs by refusing to waive his NTC and therefore the team wasn't able to reap a return in the final year of Sundin's contract. It wasn't about being the best or worst player on the ice, it was about not allowing the team to move him at the deadline to better their future by having him become a rental player. Relate it to Bouwmeester and it is a similar situation.

[JM]

Too many pundits, professional and amateur, still seem to be looking at player trades as simplistically as they looked at hockey card trades when they were 12 years old! Of course Atlanta got "value" from Kovalchuk. They got value for all the years in which he played extremely well and got paid extremely well by them. But then the contract reached the end of its life. Once that contract expires, neither the player or the team owe each other anything. Kovalchuk's "value" to Atlanta two days ago was that of a good player who would play a maximum of 27 more regular season games for them. The fact that Atlanta will now have several new players, possibly some good ones, playing for them years after Kovi's contract ended is what constitutes "value" in these situations.

[Sid]

to jeremy scott, man you are fool dude... I strongly agree with Baruch Spinoza.. Sundin is nothing less then a class act.. played with such grace and finesse. It is not Sundin's problem that TML management were a bunch idiots and left him hanging out to dry after years and years of great hockey service he provided to us fans.. TML brass never bothered to build a team around him good enough to make the Lord Stanley run..Toronto really shamed Sundin and he didn't return because he realized this.. Sundin in my books is a class act and the best to wear blue and white forever!! now regarding this greedy Russian one way joke IK. he is not going to even get close to the 101 million 12 year deal ATL offered him in the summer and he will be kicking himself.. he is good, but not great.. too much of a one way player.. he may do good for the Devils, but for a rebuilding team, he is venom..

[2nd Guess]

Don Waddell may be a very nice guy -- and Atlanta management's attempt to develop stability and continuity in the front office is laudable -- but it's time to accept that his run as Thrashers GM has been an abject failure. In its 11-year history (all with Waddell in charge), Atlanta has made the playoffs only once -- losing all 4 games in 2007.

He's hit a few home runs in the Entry Draft (Heatley, Kovalchuk), but has been unable to build any kind of lasting base around them. In a market with some potential, the Thrashers' annual ineptitude has made Atlanta a problem spot on the NHL's map.

That Kovalchuk reportedly turned down a $10-million-a-year contract offer should make obvious he was fed up in Atlanta (the recent frustration he has clearly expressed on ice suggests the same thing). Waddell has served notice he is starting yet another rebuilding program; it's a program that should be extended to the GM's office.