A Week to Watch in Another Lost Season

Should be an interesting week for Leaf watchers, at least those who didn't tune out a month ago. Or a decade ago.

Personally, I find this current collection far more intriguing than anything that's worn the blue-and-white since, oh, the spring of 2004 when, fortified with the veteran likes of Ron Francis and Brian Leetch, the Leafs tried to take a real run at it.

Since then, it's been a lot of pretending to either have a good team or to be building one. Now, while many prefer to focus on the absence of first-round picks in the next two drafts, you have the youngest team in the NHL with a pile of prospects.

Admittedly, most aren't bluechippers, but looking at the champion Penguins last night you saw the likes of Tyler Kennedy, Pascal Dupuis, Mark Eaton and Craig Adams, proof that while you need stars, what you also need to be is an organization that allows prospects to become players.

So we'll see with some of these Leaf prospects. Calgary didn't think Keith Aulie was a prospect, the Leafs do. One team will be right, one wrong. The Leafs will be signing Vermont forward Brady Irwin this week. Maybe he'll be a player, maybe we'll never hear from him again.

Meanwhile, playing for 11th or 12th or 13th in the conference isn't what the Leafs want to be doing, nor will it - or should it - attract much attention. But the hardcore may find the final two weeks of interest given the opponents and the schedule.

Tonight, Atlanta hosts Carolina, and then the Thrashers visit the Leafs tomorrow night. That means that John Anderson's playoff hungry group could do Toronto a favor tonight and then possibly be a little road weary by Tuesday's game, putting the Leafs, at least theoretically, in a position to tie the Hurricanes. That's not much. And really, it's not anything, unless you're really stuck on the Phil Kessel-for-picks angle.

Really, neither Tyler Seguin nor Taylor Hall will be playing for the Leafs, and that's that. Nothing will change that in the final fortnight. But if you believe that for pride's sake along the Leafs need to get out of the bottom two slots - and even if they do the lottery could put them right back in - then you're looking for them to catch one or two of the teams ahead of them.

People always have varied opinions on drafts as to whether they're strong or weak. I tend to go to the more dispassionate observers, those with nothing to gain or lose, like ESPN's NHL Draft Blog organized by Toronto writer Gare Joyce, with whom I'm currently writing a biography on Washington Capitals superstar Alexander Ovechkin.

Anyways, Joyce wrote The Night The Lights Went Out on the 1987 Piestany brawl, pretty much the best hockey book I've ever read. And he knows his stuff when it comes to the juniors and what the scouts are saying.

If you follow his ESPN blog, it's not hard to get the impression that after Seguin and Hall there are no stars available this June, and there are even some who are questioning how good Seguin and Hall will be as professionals. Right now, the word is they don't stack up to, say, a Steven Stamkos or a Matt Duchene, but that remains to be played out.

Once you get past the two forwards, it's non-flashy defencemen and Europeans, including a couple of good Russians who might slip because of the dynamic right now between Russia and the NHL. If Columbus' experience with Nikita Filatov doesn't make an NHL club wary of going high with a Russian, I don't know what would.

Defenceman Cam Fowler of Windsor is viewed as a great skater but a big kid without a big shot or a streak of toughness. Some like Kingston defenceman Erik Gudbranson as high as No. 3, others not so much. And on it goes.

So, if the Leafs were to be worried about giving up a star in the Kessel deal, they probably just need to worry about getting out of the first or second slot.

The Leafs next four are at home, nicely spaced out, with no back-to-backs. Carolina, if that's the target, has to go into Montreal and Ottawa, then host the Devils.

So the opportunity is there for the Leafs to improve the optics. To some, that matters a great deal.

Comments

[D Seymour]

Ths group of young over-achievers has provided some of the most entertaining hockey this year. It is hard not to root for them. I had given up watching the Leafs, but after the trades tuned back in and I am sure glad I did. Fighting to mitigate a draft pick is small comfort, but at least the Leafs are trying to provide some comfort for a change.

[K.B]

I feel there has to be this connection with the Leafs having to finish out of the basement to justify the Kessel deal. However, I have already justified the Kessel deal, I'd just prefer them to be out of the basement and still stick it to Boston.

[Nick Martin]

Damien, you may have written about this already --- I know I've read it on-line at least a couple of places. If you call up the 2004 draft, the Ovechkin-Malkin draft, it's quite revealing five years later just how many players have done little or nothing to justify having been picked in the first or second rounds. In retrospect, Tyler Bozak would be in the top 25, maybe the top 20, and chances are he'd move higher in a year or two, perhaps significantly higher. In that draft, check out how far down Detroit took Franzen. It's certainly an inexact science, and while I'd be loath to trade a #1 if you expected (which the Leafs didn't) to be in the lottery, there's a big difference between trading for young, established players who've passed the will-he-make-it hump and can be signed through their mid-20s, and trading for Brian Leetch, Ron Francis, or Owen Nolan late in their careers.

[Tom Katsiroubas]

For the most part you are always taking a chance and hoping you'll find a jewel in the draft. Kessel scores 30 plus goals while missing the first part of the season, twice in his first 3 years in the NHL. Leafs made the right move here.

[Kyle]

One thing i don't think you hit on is that some don't want Boston to get a top 2 pick. Like you said, this year does not look like a very deep draft. Boston is close to being a great team: solid in goal, big blue line. Only thing they need is scoring, which they are more likely to get if they draft in the top 2.
So I don't want the leafs to win for pride, I don't want them to win to justify the Kessel trade, I want them to win to prevent (or reduce the likelihood) of a divisional team drafting what could become a star.
Draft statistics show that the later you draft, the odds of making it big decrease

[other mark]

Anyone questioning the Kessel trade now just isn't paying attention. This guy is the rarest of all commodities in the NHL today. A goal scorer. And a young one at that. Boston may have not had a choice (Kessel apparantly didn't want to play there) but I'll bet they are wishing they had Phil in their lineup as they teeter on the brink of missing the playoffs. And, what has hurt them the most is the lack of offense. Even for those vengeful souls who like Kessel but still want to see Boston get shafted; you may yet still get your wish. A no show in the playoffs (or an early exit) could cause an implosion in Boston. That would put the Leafs one full year ahead in their rebuilding effort, with Phil Kessel as the cornerstone.

[Cory Smith]

Consider myself - and others who have commented - as interested in the final two weeks to see where the Leafs end up in the standings. I have been watching with great interest the last month as if the Leafs were going for a playoff berth. I just want to see them pass one, maybe two teams and hopefully not give Boston Seguin or Hall. As you said Damien, there's no telling how good those two or anyone else in the top five will be.
What we do know is this: the Leafs didn't trade for an over-the-hill 30-something player. They added a just-turned-22 year old who has now scored at least 30 goals the last two seasons. Imagine what he wouild have done this season with training camp and the first month? Not to mention he has played mainly with Stajan and Bozak. I think we can throw aside the notion that his goals were just a result of Savard.
Regardless, the Leafs gave up a lot for Kessel and now it appears they have a young star who should push for 40 goals each year. Unless the Bruins' pick scores 50 and gets 110 points a year, then Burke did just finre with this. Boston, if it makes the playoffs, is going to suffer a quick exit. Wonder if they would like to have those 30 goals in their lineup?

[Barts]

right move? burke had kessel no matter what as he would have thrown an offer sheet at him that the B's couldn't and wouldn't match. he gave up more pics in the end to avoid doing the offer sheet. he would have been slammed for doing the same thing that Lowe did to him (the Penner offer sheet that he threw a hissy fit and flipped out about). he paid more to the B's to avoid having his ego bruised.

5.7 million for phil friggin kessel? wow. enjoy.

[GorillaFever]

Barts.

Burke contends that he doesn't have any problem with the offer sheet system, he just didn't like that Lowe overpaid Penner by so much.

And, if you'll take a couple minutes and go listen to the Globe Hockey Roundtable from the week that Kessel was traded, you'll find that the 2 first rounders and a second rounder were the agreed upon value of Kessel, before the trade was made.

[Badge]

actually, Barts, an offersheet with the same money Kessel signed for would have cost MUCH more than the 2 firsts and a 2nd. Compensation for signing an RFA to an offersheet with an average salary exceeding $5 Mil is 4...yes FOUR 1st round picks. Two 1st and a 2nd seems like a deal to me. 30+ goals in an injury shortened season with no training. Yup, I'm enjoying it plenty, and will for at least 4 more years and easily 150+ more goals!

[Badge]

Wow Cox, you're starting to win me over lately. FINALLY someone in the media who will admit that just because someone is a projected #1 over-all pick, that does not make them Crosby or Ovechkin. I will be stunned if Hal turns into a consistent 30 goal scorer. He is simply not in the same league as Stamkos, Duchene, Kane. Never mind Sid or Ovi. Seguin will likely be a career 2nd line center. Not plugs by any stretch, but far from franchise players.

[John Richardson]

Damien, I'll second your comment on Gare's book on Piestany. Not just a well-written book but first rate reporting as well. Also liked his book on scouting, "Future Greats & Heartbreaks" which gives us an insight into the drafting process and how those guys come up with their player assessments.

Most casual hockey fans are watching an entirely different game from the ones the scouts watch, a game where they're looking to distinguish a possible prospect from what my friend who works in Major Junior calls "just another guy".

Looking forward to your book on OV.

[Matt]

Re: Barts

Actually to sign a restricted agent to an offer sheet and pay him over 5 million a year equals a 1st,2nd,3rd AND anther 1st pick going to the other team.

So Burke actually saved himself a 3rd round pick.

Do your research before posting nonsense.

[Conn Smythe]

'burke had kessel no matter what as he would have thrown an offer sheet at him that the B's couldn't and wouldn't match'. How do you know the Bruins wouldn't have matched the Leafs offer sheet, Barts? That's right, you don't. Just because they were in cap trouble doesn't mean they couldn't have made a trade or buried a player in the minors to accomodate Kessel.

[ozack]

Damien, Cheering for the Leafs to move up in the standings for some of us has nothing to do with the lost pick or Kessel. It is just a matter of having something to cheer for. Being a Leaf, Raptor and Jay fan there is so little to look forward to. So we focused on the Olympics, and now the leafs moving up three spots. The NFL draft, Free agency and then the next NHL season. Its like AA...little happy steps. My name is Zack and I am a Leaf fan.

[other mark]

Looks like folks agree with me Barts. I'm not an NHL GM (and clearly, niether are you) but it still seems pretty clear to me that Kessel is an impact player. These guys don't come along very often. In what experts are calling a relatively thin draft year, it looks like Burke made the right move. I guess we'll really only know for sure 3-4 years from now, but right now, my odds would be on Kessel being a 50 goal scorer. How many of those do you see around the league?

[ostrich_lover]

Ostrich Lover here just to pop in and say I told you so. Rememember, in October, November, again in December, several times in January, twice in February and every day since the Phaneuf trade when I told you guys the Kessel trade was not only great value, but a steal? Everyone bashed me like crazy. Now check it out, one guy out of 16 is questioning the deal and everyone else is hassling him. Oh and Stepniak almost has 30, so Senior Cox, when am I being hired?

[Utah]

Burke could have signed an UFA for 5.6 a year, and kept his picks. Something few ever bring up, when arguing the merits of the Kessel trade. Why the urgency to go after an RFA? There is a reason why so few GM's target RFAs. It doesn't make sense to do so.