Thursday Mail Bag

Philosophically, the Phil Kessel trade has always made good sense to me. I realize that may have put me in the minority, but the key factor was that Kessel was 21 at the time of the deal, not 28 or 32.

Still, had GM Brian Burke known that he was surrendering a top two pick in the June draft, he wouldn't have made the deal. He might say publicly he would have, but having the club finish so near the bottom this season upped the cost of the deal beyond what Burke could have imagined.

That doesn't mean it will turn out badly for the Leafs. In Kessel, they have a guy who can score 35 goals rolling out of bed. But it's now up to the team to make him a better player, and to him as well. Meanwhile, the risk that the deal will look worse over time has gone up significantly.

Clearly, Burke's forecast on the capability of his team this season was well off the mark. Now we may see whether another of his forcecasts was accurate.

In bringing Dave Poulin into the front office last summer, Burke said repeatedly that part of his thinking was that his right hand man, Dave Nonis, would likely be leaving this coming summer for a GM job somewhere else. Now, Nonis' name, quite rightly, has already surfaced in speculation about who the Calgary Flames may hire if, as many believe, GM Darryl Sutter gets fired.

How strange would that be? Nonis was instrumental in the decision to send four Leafs to Calgary in a deal to land Dion Phaneuf, and if he were to be hired by the Flames, he'd have to deal with the results of his own larceny.

Sutter may yet survive, although its difficult to see how. If he doesn't, Steve Yzerman's name will surely pop up, and Yzerman is clearly ready for a big job. Nonis' resume includes vast experience in the Western Conference and the fact he's run an NHL club before.

Still, the Leafs should hope that either Sutter doesn't get canned or that the Flames inexplicably overlook Nonis. After this wreckage of a season, the Leafs surely can't afford to lose him.

Now on to this week's mail bag:

Q: Hi Damien,

What do you think about violence and mixed messages promoted by the NHL 10 video game? For example I happened to catch my son playing and watched his player get hit and struggle to the bench. The trainer's diagnosis was the he had a concussion and could "play if needed". What is this saying to the children that are tomorrow's generation of hockey?

Sam Harding, Burlington

A: Sam, I'm not a video game guy, and we don't have video games in our house. I just don't see the benefits, although my 11-year-old son thinks I'm wrong, and obviously when he goes to see buddies, he gets his fill then. So if you're concerned, the easy answer is not to have the game in your home. Otherwise, from the NHL's point of view, it's not a mixed message. They promote fighting in the sport every day and twice on Sundays. The league advertises blood and the anticipation of violence as part of its entertainment package. So, really, the nonsense they sell with the video game is consistent with the league's message. It's idiotic, but consistent.

Q: Hi Damien,

First of all: Yes, my name is Neil McNeil. Secondly, I know home ice advantage in the Stanley Cup Final is given to the team that had the most regular season points, but what do you think of the idea of awarding it to the team that beat the other team in the regular season. Might give teams a little added incentive to perform well in interconference games during the season! Would love to hear your thoughts!

Neil McNeil, Toronto

A: To those unfamiliar with Toronto hockey history, Neil McNeil was, of course, a school that worked as part of the Leaf feeder system during the 1960s before the universal draft was introduced. Thus the inside joke.

As far as awarding home ice advantage in the final, I'm not sure there's a truly equitable way of deciding it. So I'm fine with the way it works now, and anything that rewards teams for regular season excellence is okay by me.

Q: Damien, I heard Brian Burke talking yesterday about revamping the Leafs forward corps(e) when free agency opens July 1st. Since the compensation for signing a restricted free agent is a First and a Third round pick, and as everyone knows the Kessel trade zapped next year's first-round draft pick, can the Leafs realistically be targeting 1 or more restricted free agents?

Also, there are a few UFA's I'd like your 2 cents on, in terms of fitting in with the Leafs: Raffi Torres, Colby Armstrong, Marek Svatos, Tim Jackman, Tomas Plekanec and Matthew Lombardi.

Are any of these guys a fit?

Stephen Woods, Centreville, Ont.

A: The Leafs won't be signing any significant restricted free agents to offer sheets. Burke was clearly referring to UFAs. The best he can do with the restricted types, because he has no first round picks, is to try to make a deal involving other commodities with a team that can't sign its own RFA. So if Dallas can't sign James Neal, would they take Luke Schenn? That's just a theoretical scenario, not a rumour or anything, by the way.

As far as those UFAs you listed, I could see Torres fitting in, maybe Armstrong.

Q: Next season, do you see the Leafs continuing to alternate games between Giguere and Gustavsson? Also, at what annual salary do you see willing to resign Giguere to a contract beyond 2010-11?

John Hunt, Harvard, Mass.

A: They will want Gustavsson to assert himself and try to play 50 games. If he can't, they may alternate. Giguere's contract beyond next year totally depends on both his play and whether the Leafs have a reasonable alternative. If he shows next year he can still do it, a huge pay cut that will still see him bring home $2 million makes sense. If he ends up being the starter and has a huge year, he might be able to stay up in the $4-5 million range.

Q: Hi Damien,

What exactly is the players' stance regarding the salary cap? If they are against it (which I believe they are) will there be any chance that they will want to send it to the scrapheap come the next C-B-A negotiations? Or will the cap always be a part of the N-H-L?

Clinton Cox, Hamilton

A: Can't see the cap going anywhere. Players have no leverage and no stomach for another big fight. They'll probably try to get rid of escrow. Good luck to 'em.

Q: Hey Damien,

I am curious to know what is the status of Mike Van Ryn and his return from injury?

Do you know what Brian Burke's plans for him this year? I believe he is entering free agency.

Do you believe he has a spot somewhere on the Maple Leafs blueline next year, where it looks like Phanuef, Schenn, Gunnarsson, Komisarerk and Beauchemin account for the Top 5 next year (Ieave out Kaberle, because no one knows if he will be here in September)?

With both Exelby and Van Ryn entering UFA, who has a better chance of being resigned?

Curious to know this and what any mangment types might know about him.

Thanks,

Dan Loghin, Ottawa

A: At this point, Van Ryn is a longshot to be part of the picture next fall. That said, the Leafs like him, and if he comes in at a low number - probably under $1 million after making $3.35 million this season - he may get a chance on a short-term deal in Toronto. Can't see there being a big market out there for his services. If he can get healthy, he'd be a perfect fifth or sixth D-man.

Q: Hey Damien. Why are the Teams wearing their colors at home and their whites on the road? Doesn't it make more sense to wear the whites at home and let their fans get the whole array of colors throughout the season? Are they planning on ever shifting back to Home Whites?

Dave Russell, Holmes Beach, Fla.

A: To be honest, with the way in which teams switch uniforms at home and on the road these days, I'm not sure what the rule is. Not sure I really care a whole lot. More concerned with fact that both the Leaf blues and whites are wholly unattractive. The re-design planned for next fall has got to deliver something better than that.

Q: Hi Damien,

Do you believe this year's version of the Sharks have a materially different attitude than the San Jose teams that have made premature post-season exits these last few years? And how many more years do you believe the Sharks will be able to compete for the Cup before their proverbial window of opportunity closes?

Thanks,

Marc Johnson, Mississauga

A: GM Doug Wilson has done a good job of keeping his picks and developing young players, particularly given the fact the Sharks are a team with a budget, not a cap team. So I don't necessarily believe the proverbial window is closing on the Sharks' chances to be champions.

That said, I don't see this year's team as materially different or improved. Sharks management, however, does believe the team is better, and they'll get a chance to demonstrate that starting next week.

Comments

[larry kwan]

Hi Damien,

Although I've been a supporter of Brian Burke, I have concerns about his 'sped up rebuild' approach.

I'm happy about the team attracting young players like Bozak and Gustavsson, I'm not sure that they compare favorably with a team built on draft picks.

We've heard that a good college player is like a draft pick, but how could this be like a first-rounder ?

Even then, what percentage of college players stay with the NHL compared with percentage of first-rounders ?

I'd appreciate your comments.

Larry

[sardonic1]

Damien, I agree with your take on the Kessel trade. The problem with trading first round draft picks is that you never really know what you're giving away, only what you're getting. It's a problem which has more or less defined this franchise over the years and it continues right through next year's draft. If the Leafs don't drastically improve next season they will surrender another high first-rounder. I'm not sure even Brian Burke could convince us the trade still makes sense in that case.

[James]

Damien, I think you missed the point of the first question. Sam is asking about a game where you can choose whether to allow a player who just got a concussion to "play if needed."

Teaching kids that a concussion can be played through like an ankle twist is pretty scary. Having said that, I love that game.

[James]

The NHL has a "rule" (if you can even call it that) for which jersey's should normally be worn for home and away games. It's not a "set in stone" type rule like the salary cap, but it is outlined that the white jersey's are supposed to be worn on the road, and the coloured jersey should be worn at home. Also, you give far too little credit for the Leafs jerseys. While they are simple, they are also not too busy like many jerseys are out there. For example, all of the Leafs jerseys are superior to the Buffa-slug, the Thrashers 3rd jersey, the Blue Jackets jersey, the Tampa 3rd jersey, the Sens 3rd jersey, the Islanders jersey and the Sharks jersey (however, the Sharks 3rd jersey is awesome, the regular ones are putrid).

[Chris]

Larry

I'd be happy to answer your question about college guys like Bozak. A player like Christian Hanson hasn't proven to be like a first rounder but a player like Bozak has. I quantify it by comparing him to players drafted in his draft year.

In Bozak's case he was passed over in the 2004 draft. The top 5 overall that year were Ovechkin, Malkin, Cam Barker, Andrew Ladd and Blake Wheeler. Bozak is not in the same class as the top 3 but is actually out-performing Ladd and Wheeler. Ladd has 37 points in 80 games (less than a 0.5 points per game). Wheeler has 36pts in 79 games (less than 0.5 points per game). Tyler Bozak has 26pts in 36 games (which is closer to 0.7 points per game) and has been the Leafs top offensive player since the Olympics at a point per game average. Translation: he's at least as good as a 1st rounder in 2004 and getting better.

As for your CHL vs NCAA question, it's a hotly debated topic. The fact is though that great players come out of both leagues. The difference is that NCAA players usually don't come into the NHL or AHL until they are 20-22 while CHL players often get into the NHL or AHL by age 20.

Here are some examples of great undrafted NCAA free agents over the years: Martin St.Louis, Brian Rafalski, Dan Boyle, Andy MacDonald, Dustin Penner and Chris Kunitz

Here are some examples of some of the NHL's best players who came from the NCAA: Jonathan Toews, Dany Heatley, Phil Kessel, Ryan Miller, Duncan Keith, Erik Johnson, Jack Johnson, Thomas Vanek, Mike Komisarek, Mike Cammallari, Brian Gionta, Zach Parise, Joe Pavelski, David Backes, Ryan Kesler, Chris Drury, Paul Stastny, Ryan Malone. I could go on but you get the picture. Most of those guys are of the elite class.

A lot of it is choice and a lot of it is development. To some kids an education is really important, to others like Bozak and Matt Gilroy, they were simply too small at 18 years old and grew later on. Not every young kid physically matures by 18. Some take until their early twenties.

[Dave PV]

The other side of the salary cap is the minimum. This has to be a consideration on what the players deem as 'fair'. $40 million/per team X 30 teams = some $1.2 billion in guaranteed salaries; doesn't seem such a bad deal (indeed the owners really blew it with their cap). How can the players negotiate against that? No cap means Nashville, Tampa, Atlanta, Carolina, et al, go back to $12-20 million player budgets per year (what would Phoenix justify? Yikes!) while a select few (Toronto, New York, Detroit(?), Philly, San Jose ....) pay above the current roof of $50 million.

No, I think the NHLPA would best let the cap remain what it is.

[J. D. POWELL]

I KNOW THIS IS A BIT OFF TOPIC BUT....

WHY ARE NO SPORTSCASTERS TALKING UP STEVEN STAMKOS AS MVP AND HART TROPHY WINNER? HE IS CLEARLY THE BEST PLAYER ON HIS TEAM, A VERY PROLIFIC OFFENSIVE DEFENSEMAN AND NOT EVEN A BAD DEFENSIVE DEFENSEMAN AND YET IN NONE OF THE SPORTS BLOGS OR ON TV DO I EVER HEAR OF ANYONE PROMOTING STAMKOS AS THE MVP?

WHEN WAS THE LAST TIME A DEFENSEMAN ALMOST LED OR MAY EVEN BE THE TOP SCORER OF THE LEAGUE AND ONLY 20 YEARS OLD?

SOMEONE HAS GOT TO CHAMPION THIS KID'S CAUSE FOR MVP!

STAMKOS! STAMKOS! STAMKOS!

PS. WHY DID HE GET LEFT OFF OF THE VANSNOOZER OLYMPICS?

P.S.S. THIS IS ALTRUISTIC; I AM NOT EVEN A LIGHTNING FAN - GO SENS GO!

[Tony]

So dave, you seem to be really taken with Stamkos' abilities as a defenseman.
I really think you should, as you say, champion his cause, and tell everyone who will listen about how good of a defenseman Stamkos is. Start a facebook group, write letters to the league. Hell, I am almost 100% positive that the domain name Stamkosfornorris.com is available and you are the one who should make that investment.

[other mark]

Nice post Chris. It's post like yours that should help quiet some of the people who are still on Burke's case about the Kessel trade. And really, I'm thrilled that Burke is looking at the NCAA the way he does; it's a pleseant change from the myopic view of previous Leafs GMs. And a shout out to Tony. Your post made me laugh.

[Conn Smythe]

JD Powell, Canada won the gold medal - who cares if Stamkos was left off the roster?

[David Long]

It is so hard to read some of these blogs..."Tyler Bozak is a first rounder"...life in a blue fish bowl....most people judge performance based on stats,results...hey guys!.... Brian Burke has just given you.. by far.. the worst Leaf point total in the history of a Leaf 82 game schedule...he brings in many ,many players...Komisarek, Exelby, Primeau,Stahlberg,Orr, Sjoeberg, Giguere, and on and on..."we are going to build this team from the 'D" out and which team in the east has allowed the most goals???...it all crumbles...now after carving out (2) 1st round draft picks for a peripheral,non-alpha player...proclaims "we have the youngest team in hockey'!
When are Leaf fans going to get angry with all of this. This team has one scorer who has 30 goals and the next guy has 16...and a dismal draft with a bunch of old stiffs brought in by Burke...how can anybody beleive that things looks rosy for next year.
PS..they will be better next year...cause no Leaf team has ever been worse over 82 games. I think I know the answer: "Go Leafs Go"-- lead by non other than "Vito'! (you get what you deserve)

[David Long]

Tony:
I am thrilled that Brian Burke has achieved the worst record in the history of a Leaf team in an 82 game game schedule and I am equally thrilled that he has got rid of the old garbage...Stajan, White etc and kept his guys: Exelby, Primeau, Orr,Komisarek, Stahlberg etc.
The man knows talent and is not stubborn...he will take us to the promised land.

[Matty]

Hey JD Powwel,
Ummmm.... Stamkos is a forward, he plays as a center. He's not a 50 goal defenceman.

[Kessel is the future of the Bruins]

Thank you, Phil Kessel, for leaving us and giving us Tyler Seguin. We will have to wait what lottery pick you give us next year, but please take our appreciation ahead of time. You really have cemented our core team for the next several years and I don't know if we could have done it without you. Again, many thanks, and good luck in the future.

Peter Chiarelli