Thursday Mail Bag

MONTREAL—So, this is pretty much it.

Either the Habs make it a series tonight, and the Sharks make it a series in the Windy City tomorrow night, or we could be starting the Stanley Cup final next week.

That's, of course, if U.S. television networks go along with it. Already there's chatter NBC will want the NHL to delay the start of the final to two weekends from now even if both the east and west conference finals were over by Sunday. Hard to believe the NHL would go for that, but TV is the tail that wags the dog these days.

It sounds like Habs head coach Jacques Martin is going to add a little size for Game 3 tonight in Benoit Pouliot and Ryan O'Byrne, although Pouliot is hardly a physical player. The guessing is that Jaroslav Halak will be in goal, although Martin could theoretically have a surprise up his sleeve.

It's a hot, breezy day in Montreal, the kind of day that makes this pretty much the perfect playoff town. Now we'll find out whether there will be games at the Bell Centre next week.

Now on to this week's mail bag:

Q: Last summer I and many other Toronto fans were clamouring for Brian Burke to sign Mike Cammalleri. Instead, he signed Phil Kessel at a tremendous price. Consider this-if Burke had signed Cammalleri , the leafs would now have Cammalleri, say Tyler Seguin, plus a first and second round draft choice. Crosby might be worth this but certainly not Kessel. Do you know of any reason why Burke would not have followed this path?

Clement Rose, Calgary

A: Let's go through the sequence. First, Brian Burke tried to trade Tomas Kaberle for Kessel at the June draft, but that fell through. On July 1st, the Leafs contacted Cammelleri and were prepared to meet and make an offer, but before they could do that he signed with Montreal. So it wasn't a direct choice between the two players, and Cammalleri made the issue moot by signing with the Habs. Clearly the Leafs preferred Kessel, but when that deal wasn't consumated and the Sedins signed back with Vancouver, Cammalleri was first on the Toronto hit list.

Obviously, with Cammalleri having a terrific spring, there's lots of people bringing this up now. That sentiment wasn't heard as often during the regular season when Cammalleri was frequently injured and scored 26 goals in 65 games. Moreover, the two players are similar in some ways - both are pure scorers - but they're not exactly the same. Cammalleri is 27 and in his goal-scoring prime. His contract has four more years to go with an annual cap hit of $6 million. The Canadiens paid a premium price to get him.

Obviously, the Leafs paid for Kessel in more than dollars. But he is 5 1/2 years younger than Cammalleri and has four more years to go on his deal at cap hit of $5.4 million. In his last playoff season, he had six goals in 11 games. Not bad.

The point is, obviously signing Cammalleri, something the Leafs wanted to do, would have saved the draft picks. At the same time, Kessel is 22, still years away from his prime. So the comparison is imperfect.

Q: Damien has the NHL not learned over time that returning to failed markets doesn't work? The return to Winnipeg would be a waste of time for everyone. I would love another Canadian team- though that is overrated as 60-70% of the players on any team are North American anyway, but will Winnipeg support another team? Small market, failed once before. History tells us that Canadian teams do well when the dollar is strong but what about 10-12 years ago when it was weak and teams wanted NHL bailouts? Obviously, my choice would be a SW Ontario team to compete with the Leafs. Big market within driving range, corporate money and exposure. I am a lifelong Leafs fan, no matter how hard I try not to be, but would love some local competition to force their hand.

Rob Burns, Kitchener

A: Of the top of my head, it sure seems to be the NHL did very well going back to Denver and Minneapolis/St. Paul, places where the game had failed before. The Wild, in particular, are doing very well. Atlanta, not so much.

As far as Winnipeg, I sure hear your concerns, although I'm not certain a team somewhere in southern Ontario would be that much more stable. It depends on ownership, and if Jim Balsillie were willing to own a team that would be fine, just as if David Thomson wanted to own one in Manitoba. But what if they sell? Then what happens. I think you have to put teams in places based more on market than owner, because owners change. Your point that going back to Winnipeg isn't a slam dunk is a good one, but circumstances might yet make it a better place to be for the NHL than an number of other markets.

Q: Hi Damien,

You're probably as tired as the rest of us following this Phoenix Coyotes debacle, but there is one question that keeps gnawing at me. All of the talk has the Coyotes going back to Winnipeg, but Quebec City has also been thrown in there as a potential for a future NHL franchise. My question is: why, in all of this talk, is Hamilton (or Southern Ontario) not mentioned at all? How much water do you think the theory holds that the NHL is seriously contemplating a Hamilton expansion team? Yes there would be hurdles to clear in the form of the Leafs' and Sabres' territory rights, but wouldn't the perceived value of another Southern Ontario team make it worth the headache of trying to make it work somehow?

Matt Downing, Mississauga

A: It really depends how you look at it. Would another team in southern Ontario be stronger than some of the teams in the southern U.S.? Yes. But would that team necessarily make the rest of the league stronger? That's the bigger issue. The NHL, as an entire entity, has probably more potential having a team in the much larger market of Phoenix if it can make it work. Believe me, there are a lot of U.S. teams that would have little or no interest in trying to sell tickets when Hamilton or Kitchener or Winnipeg come to town. It's more complicated than simply exchanging a money-losing team for a team in a better market.

Q: Why does the NHL tolerate obstruction? The 2010 playoffs look like pre-lockout hockey with all the pulling/tugging/holding/grabbing and blatant interference yet no calls by the refs ?I do not want to watch Hal Gill or Ben Eager obstruct players WHO DO NOT HAVE THE PUCK. I want to watch Sedin or Hossa or Crosby skate up the ice unimpeded from behind( especially when they are simply joining the rush) The NHL ratings are about to plummet in Canada if the refs do not start to call all this obstruction cause this kind of crap added to neutral zone trap hockey is just killing the enjoyment of the game.

Bill Kennedy, Thornbury

A: I sense your frustration but disagree with your point. I don't see all the obstruction you're seeing. I see battles for pucks along the boards, but compared to what it was six or seven years ago, there's basically no obstruction in the game today. And you state that NHL ratings are about to plummet in Canada if some things don't change. I think the opposite is true. Ratings have never been higher.

Q: Hey Damien, Which players in the upcoming draft do you think Burke will pursue the hardest? I know this year's draft class is supposed to be weaker than most but I would love to see the Swiss player Nino Niederreiter (currently ranked 8th overall) flying down left wing in the Blue and White. What will it take for the Leafs to secure a Top 10 draft pick?

Brent Golem, Waterloo

A: A miracle? Unless they're willing to move Luke Schenn, Nazem Kadri or Phil Kessel, there's no chance they can land a top 10 pick. If they can get a first rounder it will be a late one, and it's impossible to say what player they'd be looking at.

Q: With the coronation of Dion Phaneuf as captain of the Leafs imminent, I have started to think whether I should care if the Leafs have a captain and, if so, should it matter who it is. So, how much difference do you think designating a captain, and, if designated, the leadership style of the captain, can make on the performance of team? Do you think that a young team like the Leafs will benefit more with the (apparent) in-your-face style of Phaneuf or the (apparent) more laid-back approachof Mats Sundin? Do you think Sundin was "successful" as a Leaf captain(defining success as getting the team to win more games than it would have won if the captain was a player without any designation of a captain or alternate captain)?

John Hunt, Harvard, Mass.

A: Well, I think the Montreal Canadiens are showing that not having captain isn't necessarily an impediment to post-season success. The last team to win a Cup without a captain was the 1972 Boston Bruins, so clearly most teams believe having somebody wear the "C" is necessary.

Sundin was, in my mind, a very good captain, as good a captain as he was a player. The Leafs just didn't have good enough teams to win it. The fact he was a quieter leader didn't detract from his leadership. It sure worked well enough for Nicklas Lidstrom in Detroit. As to whether Phaneuf will be a good captain, I just haven't seen enough of him in Toronto yet to make a judgement.

Q: Damien,

Do you think the Leafs should get an accomplished back up NHL goaltender in case Giguere gets hurt? At this point, Gustavvson seems to play better every other game instead of every game plus his heart issues may arise again. Other than G&G nobody else seems close to being ready. If they do decide to get an experience back up where do they put him if Giggy and The Monster are healthy and playing well?

Neil Poutanen, Guelph

A: You can only carry so much insurance. The Leafs will have James Reimer and Jussi Rynnas with the Marlies, and Ben Scrivens learning somewhere else, likely the ECHL Reading team. If you sign an older vet he's going to play in place of those youngsters. So no, I think they'll be going with what they have.

Q: I love reading your work, I was wondering if you had any information on whether or not the Leafs intend to sign prospects Joel Champagne, Tyler Ruegsegger, and Korbinian Holzer. Holzer did not look out of place with Germany at the Olympics. Thanks again for your great work.

Israel Stern, Thornhill

A: My information is Tyler Ruegsegger will get an AHL contract to start. There are still concerns about his skating. The Leafs will look to sign Holzer after the world championships where he's been playing for Germany. They haven't decided whether they want to sign Champagne yet.

Q: My though on how to improve NHL scoring and excitement: Make icing a two-minute penalty. Forces teams to carry the puck out of there own end. Potential for excitment in my mind would be great. Just think it through a bit. This may be an old idea that I'm just repeating.

Steve Kowalczyk, Burlington

A: That's too significant a penalty. Icing the way it is called now is fine by me.

Comments

[Chris]

I wish people would stop complaining about the Kessel deal. Does it suck to lose Tyler Seguin? Yes. Did Burke overpay? Yes. Would Burke do it again tomorrow? No (despite what he says). The fact is that there is more than one way to build a contender as I've been saying all year.

When you look at the final four teams right now only one actually 'tanked' and I'll put an asterisk beside them. That team is Chicago and the asterisk is because the only top pick they had was because of a lottery. They actually had the 5th overall pick but won the lottery to get Kane. Toews was a 3rd overall (only two ahead of Kessel). Nobody else was a top pick. Keith was a late 2nd rounder. Andrew Ladd, Patrick Sharp, Kris Versteeg were all acquired through trades. Anti Niemi was an undrafted free agent like Gustavson. Brian Campbell and Marian Hossa were free agents. Montreal don't have any top picks. Their best players are late draft picks like Markov (6th round) and Halak (9th round). Cammalari, Gionta were free agents and Gomez was acquired via a trade. Philadelphia's best players are Jeff Carter and Mike Richards (late 1st rounders), Pronger (trade), Leino (an undrafted free agent acquired via trade) and Mike Leighton (via waivers). They DO have James Van Riemsdyk (2nd overall) but he's not an impact player yet although he'll be one eventually. San Jose have Marleau but Heatley and Thornton were acquired via trade as were Dan Boyle and Rob Blake. Nabokov is a 9th round pick and Pavelski a 7th rounder.

So it really doesn't make much sense to cry about the Leafs. They actually have a number of top 5 and top 10 draft picks on their team. Komisarek (7th overall 2001), Phaneuf (9th overall 2003), Kessel (5th overall 2006) Schenn (5th overall 2008) and Kadri (7th overall 2009). Some are their own and some are acquired via trade but all of them are either pre prime or just entering it. Now Burke needs to hope that he finds a Niemi in Gustavsson, a Lieno, or Dan Boyle type impact undrafted free agent in Bozak and hope that one of Stalberg, DiDomenico etc. tunrs into a late round steal. On top of that he'll use trades/free agency to either get some picks back or a good player. It's not as cut and dry as people make it out to be. You don't just tank and then win. Some teams like Pittsburgh get their core that way (aside from Gonchar, Guerin and Kunitz) while others like Atlanta get top picks every year and suck every year. Teams like Washington look great but can't win when it counts.

So stop crying about the picks. If Burke loses the deal it's because Seguin ends up being better than Kessel; that being said, having a guy who will pot 30+ goals per year by age 22 isn't really a total loss now is it?

[neilt]

Damien,

Sometimes you make the oddest arguments. While I generally agree with the thrust of your answer to the Cammalleri question, I must admit that your reasoning puzzles me. You note that nobody was preferring him over Kessel during the regular season when he scored 26 goals in 65 games. The implication of course being that his regular season totals weren't much to write home about. This isn't exactly the strongest argument for one over the other as over an 82 game schedule Cammalleri's goals would extrapolate to 33 goals. Phil Kessel's on the other hand would translate to 35. If Cammalleri's goal totals were unimpressive, then logically so were Kessel's, no?

Perhaps you might want to rethink that line of argumentation...

[Chris]

@Ian Stern: I hope Kolzer is signed and playing for the Marlies next year. I like what Burke &Co are doing to the Leafs organization. I am very excited about it. Most of their best prospects just graduated junior and will be with the Marlies next year. The beauty is that all of the NHL ready guys are signed to relatively short contracts (no more than 5 years). Combine that with the fact that the Leafs best prospects (aside from maybe Kadri) are all two or three years away from being NHLers. Aulie, Blacker, Kolzer and Mikus can develop in the minors while Beauchemin, Komisarek, Schenn, Phaneuf, and Gunnarson can play big minutes for the Leafs. Kabby should and will be traded for a top six guy and I bet Burke and Nonis get at least one more top six and one more bottom six guy to round out next year's roster. This is also good because it allows the likes of Forwards DiDomenico, Stefanovich, Champagne, Irwin, Ryan, Hayes, D'Amigo and Dale Mitchell to take a few years to develop for the Marlies, junior and in college instead of being thrown into the fire too early simply because there was nobody else (as we've seen in the past in Toronto). It's going to take some time but it's the first time in my life I can see the organization is committed to organizational depth and developing prospects. It's why the Red Wings are always so good. Anybody can build a team up in a few years with high picks and/or free agents but it's your organizational depth that determines how consistent you will be as in the Salary Cap era you lose guys all the time; often when they hit their prime. I think Kulemin is a great example of what development does. He was drafted in the 2nd round when he was 20, played an extra two seasons with Magnitogorsk and then split last two years with the Marlies and Leafs. His speed, skill and grit give him the potential to be a very good second line winger if he continues to develop. As soon as he can be relied upon to put a good 20+ goal or 50+ point season every year he'll be an absolute force. He was probably my favourite Leaf last year. I just love how this kid plays.

[Chris]

I bet Burke @ Co get a mid to late 1st rounder this draft. If the scouts do their job they can find a gem. Carter, Richards, Getzlaf, Perry are all among the top 10 or 15 players in the NHL and all were late 1st rounders. My guess is that Burke trades Kaberle & one of or a combination of Grabbo, Mitchell, James Reimer for either a top six forward or a player, 1st rounder and mid level prospect.

[Just Sayin']

Not exactly on today's topics here, but I watched the Czech-Finland quarterfinal shootout game today, won by the Czechs, and witnessed how the Czech players reacted the way Team Canada did upon winning Olympic gold in OT, mauling the goalie and piling on and jumping up and down, coaches hugging, etc. This for a QUARTERFINAL win at the Worlds.
Now, you tell me, is winning the Stanley Cup really higher on the priority list for European players??

[2nd Guess]

Oh, boy, here come Pouliot and O'Byrne to save the day -- not.

Pouliot may be preferable to Sergei Kostitsyn, but he's been invisible throughout the playoffs; it's probably too much to hope that being scratched for a game lights a fire under him. Meanwhile, O'Byrne is a big body who tries to play big -- but his substandard positioning and skating ability create huge problems. Watch how he seems to have a leg up in the air every time he makes contact with an opponent.

If they keep blinking every time the Flyers glare at them, it doesn't matter what changes the Canadiens make at the bottom of their lineup.

[Teemu]

Mark Chipman is the guy spearheading the Winnipeg NHL return. He is a native of Winnipeg and will not sell. Thomson owns a stake in True North, Chipman's company and owner's of the Manitoba Moose.

Chipman will have just as much control over the issues as Thomson would if it got to that point.