A Face To Match A Trade

So Leaf fans can finally stop obsessing about losing out on Taylor Hall.

It was Tyler Seguin.

Now, those same fans can start obsessing about the identity of the 18-year-old their favourite team won't get with its first round pick next year.

Phil Kessel? To those worst afflicted, he's barely an afterthought, even if he wins the Rocket Richard Trophy the next five seasons.

But Kessel now clearly equals Seguin plus whatever else comes from those other sacrificed draft picks, and over the next five to seven years as Kessel develops (or doesn't) and as those drafted players develop (or don't) this trade will continue to be debated.

But Seguin, going second overall to Boston on Friday night in L.A., puts another face on the deal, just as Brandon Gormley, taken 13th overally by Phoenix with a pick once owned by Calgary, puts on another face on that nightmarish deal that brought Olli Jokinen, briefly, to the Flames.

An absence of trades meant the draft lacked huge pizzazz, but it was intriguing, particularly for the way in which the prospects went after Hall, Seguin and Kingston junior defenceman Erik Gudbranson.

We won't know for years whether the NHL teams got the order right, but it was certainly different than NHL Central Scouting's list, and from many of the mock drafts and insider lists that were out there. That's no insult. These drafts are tough to handicap and predict, and clearly teams are more determined now than ever to shield their intentions.

Really, most of the top 20 projected players were there, just in a different order than on most lists. Defenceman Cam Fowler, once a lock to many to go third, tumbled to Anaheim at No. 12. Ryan Johansen was a surprise all the way at No. 4 overall, much higher than Central had him at 10th among North American skaters.

Ditto for Swiss forward Nino Neiderreiter, a star a last winter's world junior championships in Saskatoon, who was 12th on the NHL scouting bureau's list and went fifth to the Islanders.

The biggest shocker in terms of a team looking beyond the Central rankings came at No. 17 when Colorado picked up Owen Sound centre Joey Hishon, who was rated 55th in league rankings, and that just among North American prospects. Hishon, of Stratford, Ont., played less than half a season a year ago because of a broken foot and was rated lower at the year end rankings than he was at December, and it will be interesting to see if the Avalanche knew something others didn't.

Both Edmonton junior blueliner Mark Pysyk and California-born Emersen Etem of the Medicine Hat Tigers, meanwhile, were ranked in the top 10 but weren't taken in the opening 20 picks.

New Florida GM Dale Tallon was the most active executive in the Staples Centre, moving defenceman Keith Ballard to Vancouver in a deal that brought Steve Bernier, Mikael Grabner and a first rounder to the Panthers, and then trading the 15th overall pick acquired in this week's Nathan Horton deal with Boston to Los Angeles.

Comments

[Steve C.]

Count me as one of the afflicted then because no matter how you slice it, in any sport anywhere it is a cardinal sin to trade your first rounders if there is a reasonable chance you might end up LAST. No matter what happens they LOST that trade and deserve to be scrutinized over it for years.

[george]

You are so right Steve C. That's why in baseball they dont allow the trading of first round picks, to protect the idiot GM's, of which Burke is one, from themselves. This lousy season would've been easier to digest knowing that the reward for such a nightmarish season is that we draft a franchise player. For all those who like Kessel, I like him too, but for Gods sake he's not a franchise player. He's a good little sniper. Useful to a good team. Not a building block. When the stage gets bigger, he shrinks. Did you see him in the Olympics? Did you see the games he played against Boston. Everyone would've loved to seen him come up big, me included. He didn't. Not once. This is not a leader, he is not a corner stone. He is gifted, and soft and streaky, and thats it. He wont make a difference in the big picture. Neither will the guy the Leafs get at 62nd. They had him and his 30 goals (people make his 30 sound like the second coming of Mike Bossy) and still finished 29th, and if it wasn't for the deals made in January, the Leafs would've finished 30th, and Kessel wouldn't have made one bit of difference. Some of the other guys did. And to think we gave up not one but 3 prime draft picks. Boston gets winds up with Seguin and Nathan Horton and a couple of more precious picks to come. We get Kessel. Whos the smart one now. And the funny thing is I like Burke. I like many of the things he's done, but this will hang on you like a stench Mr. Burke. You blew it here big time.

[OL]

I am so so so so sick of hearing people complain about the Kessel trade and about trading first rounders. Do you not realize that Ferguson did such a horrible job that the Leafs were out of the playoffs for five years with nothing to show for it? So Burke comes in and the choice is either rebuild like chicago and have Toronto miss the playoffs for 10 straight years and still risk coming out like the Thrashers (Leafs drafting history is as bad) If Burke said this in his interview they arent hiring him. Instead he comes out and grabs Phaneuf for nothing and Kessel for a high cost, but averaged out he got 2 top ten picks for one top ten pick and next years most likely bottom 16 pick. Add in Kadri, Schenn, Bozak, Gustufson, Pardis and Hanson and Burke (Or Fletcher) has already put up 8 first rounders. People also forget that Kessel would have gone number one in his draft year if what turned out to be erronious questions about his attitude were not thought to be a problem. Add in the fact that he went without training camp, had a shoulder injury, missed twelve games and had a stretch were he didnt score for about 15 games, oh and a rookie centre, and youre looking at the best and most exciting player Toronto has had since, well, maybe ever. Fans and Media are figin ridiculous. Yeah, its been six years since the playoffs, but the Leafs now have one of the most exciting up and coming teams in hockey and in their history.

[SL]

You are so right OL. Stockpiling draft picks no matter what? Yea take a look at the Atlanta Thrashers. You know how many top draft picks they have had? Yet how come they're nowhere near the Chicago Blackhawks or Pittsburgh Penguins? If scouts knew Phil Kessel could score 30+ goals a season in the NHL and had 40 goal potential, you don't think teams still would've selected him at the top 5? A potential 40 goal scorer at 22 years old and Leaf fans still complain. Ridiculous!

[A sad leaf fan]

That deal was horrible!!!!!!! Brian Burke never looked so bad as he did yesterday. In an era where you can't buy a cup (not like that ever worked) it is paramount to be patient and build through the draft. All I hear from Burke is how he wants to win now. But if that were possible wouldn't 29 other GM's be doing the same thing? The fact is that it's not and Boston took advantage of Burke's shortsightedness. To lose a trade by that wide of a margin is bad ...but to do it to a team in your own division is just plain stupid. Now all I there is to look forward to is 3 or 4 more years of mediocraty at best.

[Mather Z]

If you're "afflicted", that just means that you don't understand that a first-round pick - even first overall - does NOT guarantee a "franchise player". Kessel's a proven NHL scorer, plus he's 22 years old with plenty of time to improve and a much less steep learning curve compared to a newly-drafted kid. Plus the Leafs had him for a pretty small part of last season, so it's crazy to say he stinks based on where the Leafs ended up. There are ZERO guarantees in the draft - the Bruins would be very, very lucky if Seguin turned out to be half as good as Kessel.
What's more, it's dishonest of Cox to call it Kessel for Seguin+next year's pick, because it wasn't Seguin at the time. To get on Burke's case for passing up the #2 pick is dishonest because there was no way to know at the time. And if you say you knew it would be a top-2 pick at the time, you're lying. And I'd still make that trade, because we have no idea whether Seguin will crap out or not.
Finally, the deal is done. Only Cox and the other sports"writers" who can't write a single article without the number 1967 in it would waste their time looking back "over the next five to seven years as Kessel develops (or doesn't) and as those drafted players develop (or don't)".

A final thought: to call Burke an "idiot GM" is especially crazy when you consider the Calgary trade. Maybe you don't like the Kessel trade, but you'll have to admit that Burke worked some magic with that one. Even if Kessel was a mistake (which it wasn't), Burke is by no means an idiot.

[nugentmania]

While I agree that I don't think the Kessel trade should have been made, at least the Leafs are getting "actual" value from those three draft picks in the form of Kessel...instead of what I refer to as the "decade of dread" for Toronto. Every single team in the NHL has 1st rounders they drafted contributing in some way, or the value that those 1st rounders brought in a trade. All that is, but the Leafs, save Schenn. 2000 pick Brad Boyes? Traded for Owen Nolan. Who brought no further assets to Toronto when he left town. 2001 and 2002...Colaiacovo and Steen. Trade for Stempniak, who was flipped for draft picks, I think a 4th and a 6th, which will be made today. No first rounder in 2003, deepest draft ever. Highest Pick John Doherty fails to crack top 6 D-men on his NCAA team. None in 2004. Top pick Justin Pogge. 2005 Tuukka Rask. Trade for Raycroft. Who brought nothing. 2006 Jiri Tlusty. Flipped for Paradis. No roster value yet. No first rounder in 2007. Top pick Dale Mitchell sent back to junior as an overager. Couldn't crack the lineup of the worst AHL team. 2008 Luke Schenn. 2009 Nazem Kadri, no roster value yet. 2010. No pick until the 3rd round...........the Leafs are a lot further off than their fans dream. You can't overcome all this in 2, 3 years.

[OL]

Why will the Leafs have 3 or 4 more years of mediocrity? They have a smokin young team, hell they could win the division this year since bos,ott, mtl, and buff arent exactly great teams.

[Big M]

Kessel is making $5.5 mil for the next 4 years. Seguin will be making less than that for the next 4 years. Then Kessel will be a UFA and Seguin will still be 3 years away from UFA status.

If Seguin and Kessel turn out the same, then Boston wins this trade big time because their cap hit is less and they will have Seguin for 7 years before he becomes a UFA.

[Matt B]

There is no right or wrong way to build a team. Its not only draft picks but smart signings and good trades. We can clearly see that Burke has made good signings (Bozak, Monster, Komisarek) and good trades (Giggy, Phaneuf) and was smart when he had the draft pick (Kardi). There is no magic formula and until fans realize that then they'll just complain and vouch for only one way of doing things (drafts a la Chicago, Pens, etc). But as others have mentioned, look at Florida, Atlanta, Columbus who have all had good chances to build thru the draft and haven't been able to do it. Just like your RSP portfolio you have to diversify your asset management — a combo of ways to acquire players is the way to go. Let's hope Burke can turn Kaberle into a good 1st or second line NHL forward (we have too many third liners who play 1st and 2nd line minutes).

[La La La La Not Listening]

Give it a rest already! Who's to say that Seguin doesn't turn into another Alexandre Daigle or just another third line player? Ask any Sens fan how their 1993 "can't-miss-kid" worked out. Burke will be vindicated one day over that deal.

[Graham M.]

Burke was unable to draft in Vancouver . He never developed any talent. In Anaheim he won a Cup with Bryan Murray's team. What genius in the Leaf's ownership decided to hire him? Did they do their research?

[Jon]

People actually think Seguin would have succeded here in TO with the media the way it is you are kidding yourself. Look at Schenn at the start of last season with the presure on him that he might have been a possible Captian in the future. This draft was not deep. So Boston may have gotten a good player, he could also turn out to be just another guy. Kessel would have been 1st overall had it not been for his attuide during qestions. He still went 5th oh and look at Fowler this year he was suppose to go 3rd and ends up 12th he could be a steal. The draft is a crapshoot..I'll take 30plus goals every year over potenial anyday.

[Chris]

Some of you guys are such babies. "Kessel shrinks on a big stage". Well the guy has played 15 playoff games before the age of 22 and has 9 goals, 6 assists and 15 points in those 15 games. I just don't understand how you can write off a 22 year old kid who has back to back 30 goal seasons in place of an 18 year old who has never played a game in the NHL. Burke clearly overpaid but stop acting like he traded Sidney Crosby for Mike Modano. It's very likely that this trade is good for BOTH teams. I'm honestly so sick of the whining and crying like all is lost because we lost a draft pick. Detroit haven't had a top five pick since 1990 (Primeau 3rd overall) and nothing higher than 19th overall since 1991 and they've won FOUR Cups since 1997. Atlanta had two firsts, two seconds in their first four years followed by a series of top tens and have never won a playoff game. Columbus are still garbage despite having top ten picks for a decade. Whiney babies who oversimplify things are irritating. Chicago only had 2 top five picks on their team. Kane was a lottery win (they were supposed to draft Hickey or Alzer at 4th overall) and Toews was 2 ahead of Kessel (who has more career goals than Toews). Duncan Keith was three years older than Luke Schenn when he STARTED his NHL career. He wasn't drafted by Tallon; he was a 2nd round pick who took five years developing in the NCAA, WHL and AHL before being ready just like the kids who Burke drafted today will need to develop. Sharp, Versteeg, Hossa, Campbell, Ladd, Niemi were all trades/free agents and Seabrook etc were all late first rounders. Your unreasonable expectations that these 1st and 2nd overall picks guarantee Stanley Cups and teams can't win without them etc. amplifies your complete ignorance to the reality of the NHL. The only two homegrown players on the Championship Ducks team were Perry/Getzlaf who were late 1st rounders drafted by Murray. Burke acquired the entire top six defense through trade/free agency as he did with the leading scorer (Selanne) and top six forwards Kunitz and Marchant. Guathier assembled most of the forwards and goaltenders the same way Burke is doing it; undrafted college free agents Andy MacDonald and Dustin Penner and trades for JS Giguere and Sammy Pahlsson. Why don't you guys actually do some diligence instead of screaming oversimplified diatribes at the top of your lungs? It's embarassing....for YOU.

[Chris]

Do you guys think that the Leafs would have contended next year with Seguin? It would have been great to get Seguin. Certainly the easiest way to get good young talent is in the top five but it's not the only way and every prospect, Seguin, Tavares, Kadri, Schenn, Ovechkin, Crosby, etc. needs development time. The Pittsburgh Penguins sucked even AFTER they drafted Crosby (and Malkin/Fleury/Orpik/Malone etc). The Blackhawks missed the playoffs in 2008 with a roster that had Kane, Toews, Keith, Seabrook, Sharp, Versteeg, etc. on it. My question is, why is it that you so conveniently point to these teams who 'built through the draft' as an example but ignore the free agent/trade acquisitions and the fact that these teams had to be terrible before they were good even WITH their top draft picks? Why is it that you think you can use them as an example and then leave out the whole DEVELOPMENT aspect of their team growth? Finally, why do the young players on the Chicago Blackhawks, Pittsburgh Penguins, Washington Capitals etc. get 2 or more seasons to learn how to play the game but you expect that the Leaf rookies and sophomores should have been able to turn it around in less than one (since the vets were traded and youth started to get ice time)? Development is more important than drafting high and the Leafs need time. You can't be a hypocrite here; Chicago and Pittsburgh needed time and so will the Leafs. Stop unreasonable expectations of immediate improvement due to a draft pick or two. I have news for you: Tyler Seguin would have ZERO impact on the Leafs next season. I guarantee you he would get less goals than Kessel. What would your excuse be then when the Leafs missed the playoffs? Please tell me how losing one draft pick cripples the franchise and how having a 22 year old kid who scores 30 or more goals per season already isn't going to help the team moving forward. Let me put it this way; Phil Kessel was 5th overall in an unreal draft. Erik Johnson, Jordan Staal, Jonathan Toews and Nick Backstrom were the four taken ahead of him and all are significant NHL players. Just one year later Patrick Kane was 1st overall followed by Van Riemsdyk, Turris, Hickey and Alzner. Van Riemsdkyk is a decent prospect but not Phil Kessel calibre and the rest of the guys are in the AHL. Kessel would have been 2nd overall in that draft and I bet he would have been 2nd overall in this one too given how he could score goals at will in the NCAA as a 17 year old. Quit your obsession with draft positions and learn something about draft history.

[Conn Smythe]

Graham M, 'Burke was unable to draft in Vancouver '? Really? Who drafted the Sedin twins? As for the rest of your post, Chris does quite a nice job of refuting your post.

[GodYerStoopid]

The bias newspaper that trashes the Leafs in an attempt to be "controversial" because they know thousands of fans will respond and make the publication look like it gets read told me the Phil Kessel trade was a bad one so I guess I have to agree with it. That is afterall what dumbass Leaf fans do instead of doing some research and forming their own opinion. Just read and agree in an attempt to look knowledgeable. Good ol' dumb dumbs.

[Steve C.]

Chris...all some of are saying is that this Kessel trade should labelled what it is: a LOSS for the Leafs. Every trade has a winner and loser. In this one, Burke was gambling that the Leafs would finish no worse than say 20th over all; Chiarelli was gambling/hoping that the Leafs would finish much lower. In this sense it is obvious who won. But at least Burke isn't stupid enough to admit this to the media. Btw, you should learn something about 'simplified diatribes'.

[mf]

Someone beat me to it, but the name Alexandre Daigle comes to my mind when this trade is talked about. It is risky to trade first round picks, but at the same time, they got a young player with a proven record of scoring goals in the league.

Daigle is enjoying retirement as a multi millionaire and has been since well before his 30th birthday courtesy the Ottawa Senators.

[Scot Loucks]

Steve C. .... Boston GM has stated they never thought the pick would be that high. So you are full of it. No gamble. Just lucky.

I will bet big dollars that Kessel scores more goals and gets more points for the Leafs than all three of the "given up" draft picks combined by the end of his contract.

The Burke stated last summer he was building from the Goal out. I think he has done a good job of that. Are the Leafs going to win the cup next year? Highly unlikely, but with the addition of a couple forwards (and who knows what is coming from the prospects, now rated 6th according to HockeysFuture.com as apposed to 29th when Burke arrived) they will compete.

Cheers