Gotta At Least Ask the Question

Richard Griffin asks: Why is it just baseball that falls under suspicion?

For the following unpopular question, blame Major League baseball and all the nonsense it has spewed over the past decade.

Don't blame me.

When it comes to Jose Bautista, how is it exactly that at the age of 29 he's suddenly become the most dangerous power hitter in baseball?

Chance? Healthy living? Diet? New contact lenses? Comfortable batting gloves?

Anyone reading about the Roger Clemens perjury case this week, which of course brings up all of baseball's tawdry steroid history, should at least be willing to wonder about Bautista's sudden transformation into the dinger king.

This is a player, don't forget, who never hit 20 homers before in a Major League season. Some of that was due to a lack of opportunity,although in 532 at-bats in '07 he managed only 15 round trippers.

As of Sunday morning, he had 38 homers, six more than the great Albert Pujols, seven more than Miguel Cabrera and Adam Dunn.

Really? Quite a story, huh?

Makes one remember Brady Anderson, who went from 16 homers to 50 and then back to 18 right smack dab in the middle of baseball's steroid problem.

Things happen in baseball, I guess.

The great news for Bautista is that these numbers will surely net him an enormous increase on his current $2.4 million salary when his contract expires. That would motivate any player to find a way to improve his stats.

The Blue Jays, we know, have quietly become known as a bit of a nest for alleged steroid abusers over the years. Clemens played here. Gregg Zaun has been implicated. Ditto for Troy Glaus.

And now comes Bautista. Blue Jay fans will, of course, angrily respond to the suggestion that everything isn't on the up-and-up, just as I remember getting bushels of bitter emails from baseball fans when questioning Mark McGwire's open use of androstenedione back when he was smashing Roger Maris' record.

My favourite line was always how steroids couldn't help a baseball player hit home runs. Too funny.

Maybe Bautista is just one of the great individual stories in baseball this season. This could be his career year, and he could deserve nothing but credit and praise.

But the fact is that baseball's history, and the Nixonian way in which the Selig administration and the players association have chosen to deal with the steroid issue over the years, should compel any intelligent person to wonder when a player suddenly starts displaying abilities never before seen in his career.

Blue Jay fans won't like it. But you've got to at least ask the question when it comes to Jose Bautista.

For the fact that we do, blame baseball.

Comments

[Ben Assynt]

No, you don't have to ask the question. While there is a point at which the court of public opinion does not have to abide by the 'innocent until proven guilty' standards of a real court, it does have to abide by certain standards of 'guilty beyond a reasonable doubt'. Bonds is fair game because there is substantial information in the public domain to suggest he cheated, likewise Clemens, and likewise Zaun. We don't need to wait for a court to hand down judgement to make our decisions and print our stories.

But with Bautista there is currently not one shred of evidence to suggest he is cheating. A freakish season is not evidence, as the baseball records are stuffed with freakish seasons. I would even suggest that freakishness is statistically highly probable in a game like baseball. It's trends in averages (ie the non-freakish performances) that cause us to worry - like the average number of home runs across baseball suddenly increasing and then decreasing. One person's performance is not evidence of a darn thing.

In the absence of evidence, all you are doing is slinging mud. If you are a journalist, go find evidence and then print it. I'll be the first to back you up when the steroids are found or sources with knowledge of Bautista make accusations. As it is, the only facts we know are a) Bautista's home runs have increased b) He has tested negative for any performance enhancing drugs every time he has been tested. That is NOT the same as saying we have evidence that he is not a cheat, but it provides no more evidence for cheating than exists for any other player in the major leagues.

[David]

Damien, thanks for writing this. It hurts as a Blue Jay fan to read but its definitely worth a look. Some fans are retorting that MLB tests now. So? When it comes to tests, the users are always ahead of the testers. Do I think Bautista is juicing? No (but maybe because I'm a Jays fan). I'll bet my life that David Ortiz is juicing again though (probably because I hate the Red Sox).

[Mike Hochman]

Look at his swing from last season and compare it to this season. He went from a line-drive barrel hitter, to a swing out of his shoes, homerun hitter. It's really quite obvious that the difference is his swing. I would think a baseball writer would notice such a clear change.

[Tim in Toronto]

Interesting perspective on steroids in the weekend New York Times. Hal Connaly, US Olympic hammer thrower in the 1950's and '60's made some very candid comments about his use of steroids back then.

[Ron P]

The guy has only played a couple of FULL seasons of MLB, it shouldn't be surprising that his skill set is still improving at the big league level. When he hits another 40 next year there will be no doubt.

[Carlos Perdomo]

Simple solution for this question, the doubters are right too many players have cheated, so Bautista take a test tomorrow and the results will speak for themselves

[Martin]

Why don't you stick to writing about Hockey's problems about being so white? Where are the minorities? What sport looks more racist on the surface? Almost 50% minorities in baseball or less than 1% in hockey. I thought Canada embraced minorities so, that means hockey should as well. In conclusion hockey is out of date and is more un-Canadian than ever.

Going to get the usual white uneducated hockey fans slamming this post with no intellectual debate. The real problem is how hockey doesn't fit in with Canadian values anymore just look at its rosters, white as snow. Before you start slamming another sport Mr. Cox provide real facts and proof and worry about your own house of Hockey. It has more serious problems. I guarantee there is rampant drug abuse in the NHL.

[Greg]

If Brady Anderson took steroids to hit 50 hrs, why did he quit the next year? They weren't testing yet during the year of his regression. When home runs are due to steroids, shouldn't that perform be sustainable? The thing is, people have such a poor grasp on random chance and the odds of such statistical anomalies occuring in such a large data set (all ML hitters in history) that they feel the need to explain it with things other than randomness. Yes steroids affected numbers, but not in every case when there was a significant increase from one year to the next (even during the "Era").

[PBalant]

Before steroids, the age at which ball players peak is 28 to 30, according to Bill James, author of the Baseball Abstract some years ago. Bautista is peaking when he should be, as opposed to many of those steroid users in their mid to late 30s. Clemens was dominating at 40.

[APR]

Don't knock the late bloomers. These guys work hard and I think for many of them the potential is there. Jose's technique has caught up to his eyes and co-ordination and mentally he is sharp and confident. This formula might be rare when it happens all at once but it happens in many other sports and professions. I remember in 2001 I think Ivanisovich won Wimbeldon at the the ripe old age of 30 or something. It does happen. I hope the US national sports media doesn't get a hold of this "story".

[Matt]

Lets set the record straight. Jose Bautista is NOT a power hitter. Look back at the home runs he has hit this year, how many opposite field homers are there? How many to straight?
Perhaps Jose Bautista has got his timing down this year. Will it happen again next year? All signs point to, not likely. Bautista is pulling the ball, and is looking to pull the ball left every time he rips into one. Either pitchers simply dont understand that he is looking for an inside pitch, or they want to be the guy who strikes him out on the inside with heat to prove a point. You don't have to be on roids to step into a pitch and pull it left. Even you could do it a couple times with help from Butterfield, Cox.

[Jeff]

I'm not sure if some of you understand the difference between "opinion" and "news". Damien is offering you an opinion here. This isn't hard news. This isn't irresponsible journalism. He isn't really even coming straight out and accusing anyone. He is raising the question and I applaud him for doing so. These numbers are fishy. Period. In the supposed "post-steroid era", anyone who does what Bautista is doing is going to come under suspicion. Is it baseball Macarthyism? It absolutely is, only this time, the Red Scare is REAL. I laugh when I read the people who say "Bautista is clean because baseball tests now!" Get your head out of the sand, people! Until there is an actual blood test for HGH, we will never be 100% sure someone isn't juicing (we probably won't be 100% sure even then). People are demanding proof, but the red flag is the numbers themselves. Sure, there are flukes. Davey Johnson's 1973 numbers being the poster child. But, Johnson had gone from the Orioles to the Braves and was hitting in the launching pad of Atlanta Fulton County Stadium in a power packed lineup that featured TWO other 40 home run hitters in Darrell Evans and Hank Aaron. Should that have translated to 43 after a career high of 18? No, but you see there were contributing factors to his sudden increase. Anyway, if Bautista truly wants to shut people up, roll up your sleeve, stick out your arm and say "here you go". The Union would NEVER let that happen though. The only thing baseball's testing has done has cracked down on amphetamines and you've seen how the numbers have changed this year just from that. Can you imagine how anemic the numbers might get if there were full blown blood tests? I'm going in a direction I didn't want to go. Again, I applaud Damien for raising the question. The one who did that in 1998 got blackballed...and there actually WAS proof in plain sight. I hope that Bautista is clean, I really do, but I can't help but be skeptical.

[Foul Ball]

On the topic of 'elephants in the room', how long do you think you'll keep this job after baselessly witch hunting the Jays best player this year?

You have just dropped in my books from neutral to negative. I will now have to go out of my way to denounce your journalistic integrity. Ironically, that argument will be based on facts.

[Rob Rice]

Wow! Clearly most of the commenters can read and write, but comprehension is lacking. My real surprise is people are acting as if this is the first time this year that this has been brought up.

This is MLB fault, this is their legacy.

Many factors are/have contributed to Bautista's year, but to suggest this is solely due to a swing change, or a batting coach, is absurd. If that was all it took, ALL the Jays would be hitting 40 home runs, or having career years.

None of this means he is "juiced", but just because he is on "our" team doesn't mean he isn't.

RR

[DLS]

I manage a health club and can tell who's using steroids and who isn't and believe me looking at Bautista's body type he is not juicing! He's a skinnier guy and doesn't look like he's carrying a lot of water weight that packs on while someone is on steroids. Look at how skinny Sammy Sosa was and then he ballooned right up. Bautista looks no different he hasn't miraculously added 30 lbs of muscle mass or body weight to help him power the ball. This talk is garbage.

[Luis E]

Believe... is an easy way to give baseball a chance to be great. Why Bautista is not a hard working guy? Why not give him the oportunity to show how much he improved?. Did you make him a test?. There are lots of questions without a reasonable answer. Is really sad putting a player against the ropes with just words.
Check out the rest of players and their home run stats this year in Toronto. Check the MLB Park Factor in 2010
Being risky with no proof is a sin for a journalist

[Steve]

It's sad that those who have cheated have made it impossibe to appreciate question without having to question theplayers integrity. Having said that entertaining the possibility of cheating is a different animal than insinuating it in an on-line column. I think it's incorrigble to accuse someone of cheating without a shred of evidence. Your comments smells of bias and a dislike of baseball as sport. It's unfortunate that you cannot enjoy both hockey and baseball. It's sad that you feel the need to push baseball down in order to raise the stature of hockey.
Your comments about the Blue Jays being a nest for PED users is plain ridiculous. As a previous commenter mentioned, those players were players who came to Toronto feom other teams and they most likely used PED's long before they came to Toronto. Their use of PED's had nothing to do with the blue Jays as a franchise.
I hope you think twice before writing such a biased and frivilous column or post again in the future.

P.S. It's sad that many of the Toronto writers and radio personalities feel the need to knock and criticize everyone instead of trying to find the positives and give the fans some hope.

[Andrew]

I do not agree with your assessment Mr Cox but I will say this: the amount and the severity of the criticism you are receiving because of this article says that The Blue Jays might actually be back in town again.

[just thinking...]

Do not know how to take this piece.....
On one hand I can understand how journalists/fans have an eye of suspicion considering the history of PED in baseball.
On the other hand where is the integrity of this piece. In other words where is the evidence that indicated that JB has willingly used PEDS,
It is unfortunate when someone is painted with the gulity cloth in the press without evidence as now this individual has to carry on a daily basis the unwarranted cloud hovering over the head.
Turn the tables around Mr Cox would you want someone to throw darts at you without fact behind it. Unfortunate use of position.

[Phil C.]

Even if Tiger Woods is on steroids I just don't think that helps you in golf. Yes you would gain distance off the tee but you win tournaments with soft hands and good putting. As for steroids in baseball...if the players are still doing that with all of the backlash Bonds, Clemens, Palmero etc.. have endured, I would be disappointed.

[vonky]

To Nick5.

The thing about steroids in hockey is that it hampers agility and lateral movement. They may have a stronger slapshot, but they won't be able to get themselves into the right position all the time.

With baseball you just go up and swing, same thing every time. Steroid usage in hockey would, generally, negatively impact a players game... unless they are maybe a stay at home defender or 4th line pest.

[howsitgoingeh]

Sorry, BlueJerks fans. Your hero is clearly this year's leading candidate for the Brady Anderson award. At his current rate, Bautista is hitting homers in every 10th at-bat. For his career (not including this year) he hit a homer in every 33rd at-bat. Such an improvement without "artificial assistance" is not impossible, but it is statistically unlikely.
While it is true that testing for PEDs is in-place in MLB, HGH is not being tested for (yet), and baseball players know it. HGH does not produce the same level of outward muscle build-up as other PEDs, so it's use is more difficult to detect by observation as well.
The possibility of HGH use in Bautista's case is also borne out by the fact that his batting average is still roughly on-par with his career numbers. An improvement in his swing, etc., should have translated into a better BA, but it's only his power numbers that are up. Statistical anomalies in power numbers in MLB almost always lead to the discovery of cheating by a player.

[Jim]

Please Mr Cox read this article by a someone who actually works at his craft and see just how good your blog could have been with a little effort.

http://mlb.fanhouse.com/2010/08/24/altered-swing-mechanics-key-to-jose-bautistas-home-run-binge/#cntnt

And on a side note as you blame baseball for the steroid problem where were the journalists that were in the clubhouses everyday watching these guys. How come no one called them out then?

[Jay Safir]

Have to agree with Cox. Jeremy Sandler in the National Post provides three players who are comparable with what Bautista is doing: Ted Kluszewski, Andre Dawson, and Kevin Mitchell. None is comparable. To all readers: find me a player in baseball history at age 29 who went from hitting home runs at a pace of 1 per 25 AB over his first seven years to hitting one every 12 AB. Who hits HR at that rate? Babe Ruth, Barry Bonds, and Mark McGwire! I don't need proof to say it. The players who have been found guilty keep denying they ever did it or they confess to limited use around the time of the test. They are all deniers and fibbers. If I'm not being fair to Bautista it's because his colleagues have besmerched his sport. He's guilty as charged.

[dan]

Okay first of all, I'm a Yankees fan from Montreal and I hate the Jays. A lot of you Toronto fans seem really upset by this article and you're right, there is no real evidence that Bautista is juicing. But seriously guys, you've gotta at least wonder what's going on in the Jays' locker room this year. A friend of mine who's a diehard Jays fan (he still believes they're making the playoffs) keeps arguing that Gaston's the reason the Jays are leading the majors in HRs, because he's telling the fellas to wait on fastballs. Right. Wait for your pitch. I'm pretty sure that's what every major leaguer does. That's what my little league coach told me, and I never hit forty homeruns. Did Alex Gonzalez forget all of Cito's advice when he switched to the (weaker pitching) NL? Not saying it's steroids, because I'm sure A-Gon could still find PEDs in Atlanta if that's the reason he had such a great first half. All I'm saying is it's not unfair to ask.

Oh yeah, and GO HABS GO