Just Gonna Have To Wait And See

This orgy of minute analysis two years into Brian Burke's term as hockey boss of the Maple Leafs is all quite understandable. To a point.

Anniversaries are signposts along the way, and it's worth seeing where the Leafs were when Burke landed in town and where they are today. Or at least interesting.

But conclusions? Nope. It's just too early.

Now I understand that part of the modern media system is that outrage must always be immediate and twittered, and that it's vital to be able to declare winners and losers as soon as possible, like election night. Perspective, it seems these days, is for suckers.

But sometimes you have to wait and let it all play out, at least to a reasonable degree.

In the case of the Leafs, every game cannot be a referendum on Burke's blueprint. Losses in Buffalo and Ottawa last weekend were no more definitive of the team's development than were the three wins in four games that preceded those defeats. When you've playing with two 21-year-olds on the back end, a 19-year-old on the top line and overall, the youngest team in hockey, there are going to be peaks and valleys. Big ones.

More to the point, evaluating the way in which Burke has gone about rebuilding the Leafs may ultimately prove it's been a failure. But it isn't yet. 

As much as people want to go on and on about how finishing low and drafting high is the only way to produce a strong team, it's just not true. It can work, and, as the folks in the Windy City can tell you, it does. But Florida, the Islanders and Columbus are examples where it hasn't worked.

Moreover, look at the team atop the Western Conference, the Detroit Red Wings. Never bottomed out, and there's no Ovechkin, Crosby or Stamkos on that roster, unless you want to count Mike Modano, the first overall pick in the NHL draft 22 years ago. And he's injured. Otherwise, there were no picks made by Detroit in even the top 10 selections that altered the course of the franchise.

Yes, much of that foundation was built before the lockout. But the lockout was five years ago, the Wings have been operating under the same salary cap constraints as every other team, they've lost key talent over the past two years and they're still riding high.

So there must be another way to win, correct?

Philly bottomed out and got James Van Riemsdyk, but so far, he's no franchise player. The Flyers constructed a very strong team with good late first rounders (Mike Richards, Jeff Carter), resourcefulness (Michael Leighton, Sergei Bobrovsky) and a willingness to take risky gambles (trading a ton of futures for Chris Pronger).

The Flyers did get to the Cup final a year ago. So again, there is another way. Montreal, other than the drafting of Carey Price, hasn't built this year's quality team on finishing last. They've done it in a variety a ways, but certainly not like Washington, Pittsburgh or Chicago did it.

Now, whether Burke can find his own alternate route looks uncertain, or even doubtful now, but rebuilding projects always look this way. Three years after drafting Alex Ovechkin, the Caps had 70 points. But George McPhee wasn't fired. It's been four years since the St. Louis Blues bottomed out and took Erik Johnson first overall, and after a fast start it appears the Blues are likely to be fighting for a playoff spot again this season. Don't hear anybody calling for John Davidson's head.

These things take time, yet so many want to scream "Failure!" at the Burke regime after just two years. Make no sense.

Similarly, reaching final conclusions on Phil Kessel, the closest thing the Leafs have to a franchise forward, makes no sense either. Bill Watters, the former Leaf executive and radio analyst on A640, called Kessel a "dog" repeatedly on the air yesterday, and maybe he's right. Ol' Wilbur has been around the game a long time and talks to a long of folks in the sport, so I'm certainly not dismissing his opinion.

At the same time, Kessel is 23 years old, has 66 goals in the past two NHL seasons and has 10 in 22 games this season despite playing on a team on which he is the only threat to score. I would submit that deciding Kessel is never going to be a top player in this league is a little premature, like all the years Steve Yzerman was lambasted as a guy who couldn't win the big one. Until he did. (I know people will try and twist that into a comparison between Kessel and Yzerman, which it isn't, but I'm confident reasonable folks will understand the point).

Yes, Kessel has to add to his game. Yes, he's got to play harder. Yes, he settles for the long wrist shot instead of taking the puck to the net, although the fact opponents know he has no one to pass to limits his options.

And yes, he may fail to do all of those things and never be a better player than he is today.

But nobody knows that yet anymore than they know for sure whether Tyler Segin, second in the draft behind Taylor Hall, will be better than David Legwand, second in the draft to Vinny Lecavalier 12 years ago. (The next other three top 5 picks that year were Brad Stuart, Bryan Allen and Vitali Vishnevski, again suggesting finishing low and drafting high doesn't necessarily mean a championship is just around the corner).

Over the next three days, the Leafs will test themselves against the Tampa Bay Lightning and the Edmonton Oilers, two clubs who also finished well down the standings last year, like the Leafs, and are trying to re-build.

As much as some will try to use these games to prove or disprove Burke's rebuilding theories, they won't. That said, I can guarantee that if the Leafs were to win both games, there will be no one proclaiming that they are clearly ahead of both teams in their attempts to develop a winning team.

But if the Leafs lose both? Oh my, you can beat there will be many screaming that Burke has it all wrong. 

It's weird, but in a town where so many maintain they want a patient approach to rebuilding the Leafs, patience is in remarkable short supply.

Comments

[Paul]

Great article. I agree with most of what you're saying, the only thing I'll comment on is the end...
The lack of patience on part of "Leafs Nation" (i hate that term) is directly related to the fact that Wilson and Burke used the "P" word repeatedly.. raising fans expectations, instead of just acknowledging it's a rebuilding period.

[Andy]

Damo, this is where you are wrong. It's not the fans that are impatient. We're frustrated. It was the man in charge Brian Burke that was impatient and announced his plan was to win sooner rather than later. Rather than a longer rebuild process which included building through the draft, he gambled with the Kessel deal and the trade looks like a dud. It was our leader that said we were going for a play-off spot last year and the same this year. If from day one he said the plan was a 3-5 year plan and to build through the draft and build a Stanley Cup contender, not a team that was fighting for the final play-off spot, the fans would have bought it for sure. We're frustrated because we see no light at the end of the tunnel. The cupboard is bare of draft picks. Who cares if some year, we scratch into the play-offs and go out in the first round? This city wants a team that can contend for the Stanley Cup year in and year out. That takes time to buildfrom where we were at (under the cap system). A good example is the Blue Jays. People are excited about the Blue Jays because Alex has a plan to build a contending team for a long period of time and they are fun to watch. People will accept some hard years if the promise of future success is there. BB came in with alot of fanfare, but I have lost confidence in his "build a playoff contender now" approach. It's turning into the same-old same-old story which makes us a laughing stock of the league.

[Braco]

Burke is idiot who is getting paid millions to make city look like idiots too.

[Carlos]

Damien: This was probably your best posting in recent memory - balanced and articulate, with good evidence. A good contrast to Watters' raging ignorance yesterday. Thank goodness he's a "former" Leaf executive.

That said, I would guess that Leaf fans would be willing to be patient with rebuilding, if it could be seen that the Leafs are giving maximum effort as a team for every game. If they do that, but still lose, I think fans would be willing to be patient and understand that the team lacks talent right now (especially to score). It's just not clear that every player is giving 100% every game, and that rankles die hard fans. This is a fast team, but some nights it doesn't look like that at all. Even worse, some nights it appears that there are six guys on the ice doing different things.

[alex]

Patience is in short supply because Toronto fans were FINALLY ready to accept a rebuild and Burke traded away two 1st and threw "rebuild" out the window in the typical sense. So now losing infuriates fans because it just means that Boston is getting a better pick. They are absolutely right to be furious. And the more Kessel shows that he's a 1-dimensional player and getting worse at his overall game the more Leaf fans are going to get annoyed that Burke has avoided what would have been a supported rebuild. But he's rushed it and mentioned the word "playoffs" and now fans expect it.

It's Burke's own fault.

[Morris]

Great analysis! It's OK for the fans and media to have their opinions. But it's detrimental to the performance of the team if the media and fans keep calling the head of the coach or some players to be traded. It's such a competitive game that you need your players and coach to pay 100% of their attention instead of being constantly side tracked. If you treat your team life that, your team will treat you the same way! It's the same for everything else in the world. Toronto, stop being so acrimonious especially to something you love. Show your tolerance and patience. If you really can't just pull your eyes somewhere else. Or just go back and have a life of your own! It's just a game in the end. Just let loose who knows what may happen down the road one day!
Go, Leafs! Go!

[Drum & Anchor]

Damien,

Very well stated article -- absolutely bang on.

I understand that media "personalities" that tend to say/write controversial things are, mostly, doing so to attract listeners/readers and, hopefully, advertisers. They have little to no need to show patience. That's for sissies.

That being said, I do think that Ron Wilson's "best before date" has long since passed. Another year of very bad special teams confirms that for me.

[Andy Pizans]

Twelve years ago the teams that drafted second through fifth did not do their homework. I guess their scouting staffs need a shake up. To imply that drafting high is not advantageous is simply wrong. Detroit will take a first overall over a second overall draft pick everytime! It remains to be seen if Burke's plan will succeed or fail. With the financial resources that the leafs have available and taking into accout the salary cap, it makes no sense for the Leafs not to have the largest and most talented scouting staff in hockey.

[Geoff Read]

A good, rational column... but I agree with the posters that Burke brought this on himself by suggesting last year that he thought the Leafs would make the playoffs. That notion was laughable (and I seem to recall a certain columnist buying in...) and raised unrealistic expectations. They didn't make the playoffs last year, they won't make them this year, the best Leafs fans can hope for is a playoff team next year - but for that to happen Burke needs to add a minimum of 1-2 top six forwards to compliment Kessel who is the only bona fide top six guy on the current roster (apologies to Versteeg, Grabovski, Kadri and Kulemin, but on a playoff team those guys are third liners or possibly second liners).

And comparing Kessel to Yzerman is ludicrous! (just kidding)

[Goalie]

There is only one glaring flaw in your assessment: Burke has made it clear that he is building for today and not for down the road. He just made that statement yesterday. There seems to be no clear plan on how to build a Cup-winning team. After 43 years of this, the fans deserve better than a "possible" playoff team. The other problem we have is the lack of NHL talent. It is not just young players but rather the type of young players. We have guys that might be good 2nd and 3rd line players but we have no franchise players. We have no stud on defence, even though Phaneuf was supposed to be that guy. So there may very well be other ways to build besides drafting top picks but you won't get a franchise player without it.

[Jason]

Mr. Cox,

I do not believe most fans of this team anticipated a Stanley Cup championship in two years. Our impatience and incredulity stems from a seemingly bizarre list of moves that defy explanation. Our "tough" defense in anything but, with money tied up in overrated free agents. The Kessel deal can only be explained if one believes that Burke thought his team was far better than it actually was. If so, that it was a gross miscalculation on his part, as was the signing of players who played well in lesser roles on different squads but are ill suited as front line players on this team. I think most Leaf fans are happy to wait for a carefully thought out rebuilding plan to take shape. However what was promised two years ago has not materialized in the least, and worse still is the fact that now we are quite possibly further behind than when Mr. Burke took over.

[Dantheman]

Amen.......someone with a voice of reason & objectivity. Chill out Leaf fans, a rebuild does not happen in 2 years!

[John]

One of the best blogs i've read in a loooong time !

I noticed the previous poster saying in one sentence its not the fans who are impatient and then in the next sentence he says the kessel deal looks like a dud?? Kinds contradictory dont u think ??

Kessel scored 30 goals last year and is on pace for maybe 40 this year. This, on a team where he has no help and is the SOLE target of the other team ! Did i mention he's on pace for 40 this year !

Yeah ... a real dud !

[JayDubs]

Damien, another fine piece of writing. Really do appreciate your work, here and on TSN. The main problem I have with the evaluation of the management team is this; they have always said and acted like they are smarter than any other people involved in the game. We don't need to rebuild using the draft, and top picks. We can do all these other things that allow us to trade really high picks. College free agents, European pros who went un-drafted, and the July 1 free agent frenzy. I distinctly remember Burke saying that this is our draft. Then we see these guys play and we realize that they were long shots for a reason. Whether that reason is work ethic, size, compete level or whatever, none of the guys with the exception of Gustavsson, looks like he is going to be a high end talent.

The other disagreement with management is philosophical, we have heard since Burke came here that we are going to compete for a playoff spot. Do you really think that is the mantra in Detroit, Philadelphia, Washington, Pittsburgh, or Vancouver? Make the playoffs and we are a success. I thought the goal was that silver chalice they hand out in June. This team is likely to finish right around the same spot overall that they did last year. Boston gets another top three pick, we got a guy who is super talented in one end of the ice, who is questioned routinely by his coach with respect to his willingness to compete.

The fact is at this point in time, Burke and Wilson have failed to live up to their own expectations. Ones that they proudly shouted from the rooftops, playoffs!, playoffs!. The coaching situation is another can of worms. The areas that coaches are usually given credit for having an impact are special teams and defensive responsibility. They are just as bad on special teams as they were 3 years ago. No progress there. Goaltending is the excuse always cited by Wilson, he now has 2 respectable options. 2 more than he has had here in the past. Goals against is down, so is goals for. No change in the results.

Lets be honest they aren't going to make the playoffs this year. There are no high end prospects in the minors, all of them are here playing now. I can't think of a way for this group of players to be significantly better than this next year. So no squeaking in next year either.

I hear people say trade for talent. Who off the roster do we have to give to get a player like Brad Richards? Schenn, Kadri, Aulie? Plus another decent player, Brown, and Rynnas as a prospect thrown in. If we do that, have we really gained? We can't trade picks because we don't have any! Do we really want Vinny from Tampa? The young gun free agents to be are now being routinely locked up to contracts, Backes, Jeff Carter, Bobby Ryan, Giroux, etc. They are no longer going to be free agents.

The Leafs look more and more like they are playing musical chairs, the music has stopped and the chairs are all full. So here is Leaf Nation, our team stinks, we have very few top prospects. Komisarek, Beauchemin, Armstrong and Phaneuf are signed to contracts that no other team should want. Therefore trading them is highly unlikely, unless we get a worse contract back. I can't see Burke burying one of them in the minors, since he was the one who acquired them.

No first round pick last year or next year. Yet day after day Burkie says he's happy with the coaching staff. For the life of me I can't figure out why. He assembled this team, as pointed out by Steve Simmons, says they should compete for 8th in the East, and they sit 13th in the East right now. By my estimation they have 2 winnable games in their next eight. Yet the coach is doing fine. Burke has 2 options, he either was delusional about the talent level of his team or, he is delusional about the abilities of the coaching staff.

[Buckster]

I dont know what to think anymore, just seems to be the same thing over and over. I'm sick of and tired of analyzing the crap out of this team year after year trying to figure out why they are so bad. I am expected to sing this loyal Leaf fan tune forever in the face of constant ridicule from fans of other teams which at least make the playoffs once in a while. Being a fan of the Leafs sucks but who am I kidding I will blindly and foolishly sit thru a lifetime of futility due my undying devotion to the Blue and White. I wonder if anyone in MLSE understands or really gives a crap about what a Leaf fan endures.

[Al]

Agree with the article but also with the comments - call it a re-build, don't sell it as anything else. Underpromise and overdeliver; the Leafs are doing it the opposite.

[red5]

Wow, that is a nearly positive article. I just have to wonder about some of the comments on this board (Paul @ 10:22 & Andy @ 10:29). If the players or administration are not going to try and aim for the playoffs, then what the hell are they doing in that league? How messed up is the sports culture in this town if the fans want the team to lose?

[Ed]

Look at the results this is not working! The Leafs are becoming and are the laughing stock of the league.

[Gary Brownston]

Nice try, Damien. Why you're gushing over BB is anyone's guess. Rather than being afraind to "tell it like it is" and succumbing to the ire of MLSE and the pathetic Leafs, you should act like a responsible Journalist and take a stand.

Leaf fans are sick and tired of excuses. Nice way to lose readers.

[owen]

It's not BB or RW, it's the perennial loser leafs. They can trade, draft or sign anyone they want with no salary cap and they will still lose. Love it.

[Chris]

What would you call it then, a perpetual work in progress? There has to be some sort of light at the end of the tunnel Damon, and for years its just been the train hurdling towards us.

[David Pelletier]

Well it still comes down to how you look at building a winning team. BB has turned the TML from a slow, no defense and poor to worse goal tending to a young fast team with potential in goal, defense both at the big league level and the minor leagues. Young forwards drafted last year show promise but it will take two or three years before we know what we have and that goes for the ones on the big team( Bo and Kadri ) not many are a instant star in this league .This is a hybrid build, and as much as we want a winner we will have to wait for the entire build to bare fruition.

[Ostrich Lover]

THis is exactly what I have been saying all year long, time after time. It as if Damian has looked directly into my soul. And i am not saying he plagerized my comments, because its just common sense which ironically is not common at all.

[mark]

I agree 100% with you Damien. There is no single tried and true way to build a contender. Burke's track record is as good an indication as you can have that in the next year and a half or so, the Leafs will start to look like one. As for Water's and his Kessel comment, I think he's full of hot air. I don't care if it's Kessel or the second coming of Gretzky, if you don't have one or two guys to play with or deflect some of the attention, it's going to wear on that player. Kessel will consistently score between 30-40 goals a year for at least the next 5 years. Given the stiffs he's playing with, that's pretty darn good. The jury is out on Tyler Seguin and whomever the Bruins get this year, but regardless, a GM who won't take the occassional gamble isn't doing his job. People who complain about Burke gambling on Kessel are the same people who likely lamented about 'Stand Pat' Quinn.

[Gin]

Great points, Andy. I agree. In five years we will be in the same old place. The Kessel trade will only get worse as time passes and Sequin and the other picks blosom in Boston.