A Provincial View

The fact that the Maple Leafs and Ottawa Senators are provincial rivals leads naturally to comparisons. Right now, it's a comparison that has turned ugly on the Sens.

The combination of Ottawa's dreadful showing Tuesday night in a 6-0 loss to Boston - a defeat that may have sealed the fate of head coach Cory Clouston - and the Leafs' well-deserved 4-2 road triumph against the San Jose Sharks put the Leafs two points ahead of Ottawa. Given that the Sens comfortably made the playoffs last year, a full 20 points ahead of the Leafs, the current situation offers instructive commentary on both clubs.

For Ottawa, it's final proof, really, that the window has closed on their chances to win with the group that includes Jason Spezza, Daniel Alfredsson, Mike Fisher and Chris Phillips. GM Bryan Murray has resisted breaking up the group, or hasn't been able to, but watching his club plummet in the standings has to have convinced Murray that it is time to tear this thing down and rebuild.

The question now is whether Murray will get the opportunity to organize that rebuild.

For the rebuilding Leafs, a fourth straight victory, and a third consecutive triumph on the road, allowed Ron Wilson to claim his 600th career win (82nd with the Leafs) as the club continued to play well in front of recently recalled netminder James Reimer. It's fair to guess that Wilson's plan of starting J.S. Giguere in Phoenix on Thursday has to be under serious review, for taking the sizzling Reimer out now with his teammates clearly responding to his play makes no sense at all.

While captain Dion Phaneuf has been the target of much criticism this season and played poorly in a win over L.A. on Monday night, once again the numbers prove emphatically that with him the lineup, the Leafs are a better team. Including the win over San Jose, the Leafs have now won eight of 15 games since he returned from injury Dec. 9.

Phil Kessel, meanwhile, has been on fire for more than a week now. He scored again last night against the Sharks on a dazzling play that illustrated the special talent he is when he's rolling, but more than that, he has shown in recent games a spark and element of grit that wasn't there for most of December.

With 19 goals, he's headed for a season of 35 goals or more, which of course won't be nearly enough to silence those who endlessly lament the sacrifice of two first round picks to acquire the speedy winger.

Who would have thought that it would have been the addition of callup Joey Crabb to the twosome of Kessel and Tyler Bozak that would get Kessel flying again? Crabb, however, has been a very useful grinder, as has centre Darryl Boyce.

That the Leafs have strung a few victories together will, as always, invite the same snide plan-the-parade comments as any success from the Toronto franchise does. The fact is, however, that with Reimer delivering stellar goaltending rather than the inconsistent goaltending that has plagued the team for years, suddenly the Leafs are finding themselves very competitive against good clubs.

That doesn't mean a playoff berth is imminent. They're too far back. But if the rest of this season is about making sure young players get all the ice time they need to establish themselves as NHL regulars, it's proving to be a fruitful period. Notable for his strong play on this road trip, for example, has been defenceman Carl Gunnarson, a youngster who seemed to have taken a step back earlier this year but is now back at the level he was last year.

For Ottawa, meanwhile, the fact that up-and-down defenceman Erik Karlsson will represent the club at the all-star game in Raleigh this month is a strong commentary on how those core players Murray hoped and believed would carry the club have failed.

It's hard enough for Senators fans to stomach what's going on. But to have the Senators below the Leafs (Toronto hasn't finished above Ottawa since the '03-04 season) must make it downright depressing for Ottawa supporters. 

The Leafs, for what it's worth, are still 26th overall, but moving out of the bottom five is clearly within reach with Columbus, Florida, Calgary and Buffalo all now within range.

 

 

 

 

Comments

[Grabbo]

Damien, please refrain from parade talk. I think the leaf supporters are smart enough to know that no parade is imminant. I know it is a bit tongue in cheek for you to say that but seriously the only people ever to say that are those who don't like the leafs and they are dissing the fans.

The leafs are playing great right now and we will see where that leads by seasons end. I won't hold my breath for a playoff spot but if they continue playing like they are it will be interesting.

The Sens on the other hand are in a world of hurt. Reminds me of the Leafs this past December.

[Wayne Mabey]

If nothing else, Phaneuf's return ensures less ice time for Brett Lebda, so it's possibly a case of addition by subtraction. Phaneuf on a bad night is still better than Lebda.

[Joel]

Great article Damien. It will indeed be interesting to see what happens in Ottawa. With Leclaire a UFA at the end of the season, it looks as though they will probably start from scratch (youth + a veteran) at that position. The defence is old, but Philips will either be moving on as a UFA or be traded at the deadline (the former being more likely). The forwards are mostly overpaid and immovable ($2M/yr for Neil, for example) but at least Kovalev is done at the end of this year. Ottawa has a few good d-men prospects but otherwise it looks pretty bleak. There's no doubt in my mind they have to blow it up, but like you said, the real question is whether or not Murray will get the chance to do that.

One small nitpick: I'm sure you mean, in the second-last paragraph, that "Toronto has NOT finished above Ottawa since the '03-04 season".

[O.Boy]

Geez,,,,great article?? Wow, we're getting excited about finishing ahead of Ottawa!!!!

Yee Haw!!! Only in Torranna.

[LS]

Mr. Cox;
Please don't forget the quiet, yet devoted mass of readers who dig your work and can hardly understand those who criticize harshly. We never write in. Hey buddy, we're here.
If this was paper I was reading instead of my 23' flat screen monitor, I would cut this article out and tack er' on the cork board by the orange rotary phone for a future reading.
Fine work, Sir.

[Gordon L.L.MacKay]

I have said this last year and I repeat it once again for anyone who will listen (hello Burkie). Send Gustason down to the minors to learn the NA game (ice surface and rules) and gain invaluable experience. It is still not too late, he will be a good one but why pull a Bester or Wregget with him. Reimer is proof of what a good fundamental goalie can provide to a re-building team. He has demonstrated he can play at the NHL level and could offer the Leafs another choice (trade deadline, etc.,) if he continues on his way. I know there is no way for Burkie to back away on Gus (I think he should at least consider moving him to a Western team if he does not send him down) and goaltending is a strength the Leafs have at this point. Get something worthwhile in return because you can not please them all again next season. I have some ideas on whom to trade with but my background is as a Police Officer ergo I bow to the Burkie and keep them left unsaid.

[Steelyman]

totally agree , it is nice to see the Leafs win for a change & steady goaltending is a big part of it . Living in Otwa I usually have to take alot of ribbing , now the shoe is on the other foot . Total rebuild is req by the Sens , enjoy

[Paul]

Great article as usual. Although Phaneuf has drawn justified criticism this year for his lack of offensive production, there is a large set of intangibles that make him valuable to the Leafs. Beyond his vociferous presence in the dressing room, he is well known for his thunderous hits - and this part of his game seems to have picked up on the Leafs current road trip. It's something that the guys on other teams must have in the back of their heads whenever they touch the puck, and I think we haven't been paying enough attention to that part of his game and how beneficial it has been to his team. It's something that Ottawa sorely lacks right now: the presence of a big, fast, heavy defenceman who can knock you down cleanly at any time!

[othermark]

I watched part of the Ottawa / Bruins game (and all of the last time they played the Leafs). This is a very bad team. The defense is so give away prone it's unreal (including Karlsson). And the core forwards (Kovalev, Alfredsson, Fisher) are invisible. Spezza was good on most nights when he wasn't injured, and his contract makes him tough to move anyhow, so he may be the only keeper. Murray (or his replacement) would be foolish not to blow this up and I guess you could start with the coach... but if Murray is slated to be canned himself, maybe you fire both at the same time and name your new general manager (letting him choose a coach for next year). Pull the trigger now and you'll have the right guy in place to clean house and hopefully make some useful trades before the deadline.

[Dex Hammond]

No need for parade talk yet. The Leafs will return to their dismal old selves when the "marquee" players return from injury and Reimer, Crabb and Boyce shuffle on back down - despite proving they have more heart and talent than the guys with bigger paycheques and better agents.

The Leafs don't need performance chemistry when the ACC still sells out for mediocre hockey.

It's really too bad the Leafs got Wilson his 600th ... they seem to keep winning just enough to stop management from solving the bigger part of the problem.

[Conn Smythe]

'Send Gustason down to the minors to learn the NA game (ice surface and rules) and gain invaluable experience. It is still not too late, he will be a good one but why pull a Bester or Wregget with him.' One problem with that scenario, Gordon, is that I believe Gustavsson would have to clear waivers...

[S.Cle]

I'm a die-hard Senators fan and have been since 1992. BRING ON THE LOTTERY PICK! In fact, let's just play the rest of the season with the net empty... it will bring pretty much the same result as we're getting right now. In the past I've been a big supporter of keeping this core group of players together, but even a lowly Leafs fan can now see how insane that strategy is. Alfredsson will have his number retired soon after he calls it quits, and good for him... but I'd like to start winning again soon. Bring on the rebuild!

[leefan]

It is good to be ahead of the Ottawa Rubber Wrappers, but that's still a long way from a playoff spot. The Leafs certainly have played better, but there was lots of room for improvement after some of the poor performances they have put on, their first game against Edmonton being a case in point. When they use their speed and get good goaltending they can play with anyone.

[Venca]

20 NHL players on pace for more than 33 goals. Only 11 are under 27 years old.
2 of those 11 young snipers are Maple Leafs.

In the leading 43 goal scorers in the NHL:
-16 teams have one or less player
-Only 6 teams have more than two players in the top 43: Sharks, Wings, Flyers, Kings, Stars and yup, Maple Leafs.

The Senators have nobody even in the top 50 goal scorers. They have ONE player in the top 100...And he is 38 years old. The Leafs have 5 in the top 100 and they are all under 27 years old (Kessel 23, Kulemin 24, Versteeg 24, MacArthur 25, Grabovski 26)

[othermark]

Good article Damien. But Gord MacKay...what's up? 'Pull a Bester or a Wregget'. Both of those guys were solid NHL goaltenders for a lot of years in the league. Also think you stretch it a bit when you say that Toronto's goaltending is a strength. With the recent play of Reimer, it's been good, but before this most recent streak I would say no more then 'adequate' at best. Giggy and the Monster both were at the bottom of the league in terms of save percentage and wins. They also both have an annoying habit of giving up weak goals. Don't get me wrong; I'm encouraged by the play of the Leafs and I'm happy to see guys like Crabb, Boyce, Reimer and Gunnarsson establish some NHL credibility. But, the team in general and goaltending in particular are by no means standing on solid ground just yet. There is still going to be some shaky times.

[Drew]

As an Ottawa fan I am glad we are lower then the Leafs because it means we will get a higher draft pick; because if you are not in the playoffs that what more important then being the best of the teams that didn't make it. Also I am happy the Leafs are higher then us because it means Boston draft pick won't be as high. Ottawa needs to rebuild, Toronto does too, the difference is we have our first round choice and Toronto doesn't.

[Prahapete]

I would make the Kessel trade again. Two first round picks for a bonefide goal scoring forward, that's an easy choice. Just look at the Leafs' first round picks over the last twenty years, for that matter look at any team's first rounders over the last twenty years.

[Kirk]

What of The Monster? Do we now have a bona fide goaltender controversy here in Toronto? How can they justify sending Reimer down at this point and allowing Monster to stay up. It seems to me that the Monster, at age 26, is just not getting it. Sorry, along with the health issues ( I hope he is completely recovered) and inconsistency, if it were my call, he would be in the press box when Giggy gets back and part of a package deal at the deadline.

[James]

All I see is a gloat that looks like it's been finally dusted off for long-awaited publication that is desperately attempting to hide the fact that the current Battle of Ontario is in actuality a bleak comparison between two non-playoff teams of which one will have a high 1st round pick and the other will not.

What's funny is that Toronto is hardly guaranteed to finish ahead of Ottawa anyway. They are two points up with half a season left to play.

For the sake of my Senators, I hope Toronto is successful in taking that coveted 12th spot.

[Really?]

Sens fans are intelligent enough to realize the organization will get a great lottery pick this year. Leafs fans on the other hand write glowing blogs about the 26th ranked team in the NHL.

Toronto under Burke's ill-fated regime will continue to overpay for free agents and fail miserably to escape mediocrity. Leaf fans will despise Phaneuf after a few more years of watching his awful and declining play. Ottawa will rebuild properly and return to contention eventually.

Spezza + RNH/Couturier/Landeskog + X + Karlsson
=
Core of the New Ottawa Senators. Hopefully in 2012 we can draft can equally special forward talent as the X. That or perhaps one of our prospects will surprise and turn out to be a diamond in the rough.

Enjoy a 30M blueline that can't play defense for you Toronto and enjoy overpaying Kulemin, Grabo, and MacArthur over the next few years. It's as if Toronto thinks they're really going somewhere T_T.

[Chris G]

Maple Leafs have a lot of good young talent already on the team, so they are not in dire need of a lottery pick this year. Likely a moot point anyways, because a finish outside of the bottom five seems likely.

Senators are in much greater need of said lottery pick, sadly for them, this is not considered to be a good draft year.

[Tabber]

Time for James to take reading lessons and for Really? to realize that his rose-coloured glasses to the future are not telling him the truth. Oh well, nothing like a couple of laughs to brighten the morning ... thanks guys, keep up the amusing work!

[othermark]

"Really?" ..you're either delusional, stupid or both. The point of the article is that Toronto has already started their rebuild and it's showing results (they are actually improving) while Ottawa has yet to pull the trigger on what now appears inevitible. Your rant also shows that you are one of the faithful legion that insists building through the draft is the only way to go. I think Burke is proving you wrong. Grabo, MacArthur, Kessel, Bozak, Phaneuf and Versteeg are all good young players acquired via free agency or trade. I project the Leafs will continue to improve as momentum is now showing and Burke/Leaf haters like you will soon be crawling back under their rocks.

[Peter]

@Really? Calling Ottawa fans intelligent is a bit rich. lol will they rebuild propely? to what exactly?
and keep your Spezza (turnover king) and Karlsson (the other turn over king) and be happy. and pray your X don't turn out to be another Daigle. :-)