The Cost of Talent

So Alex Ovechkin gets 13 years.

Last summer, Nicklas Backstrom signed for 10 years.

And Alex Semin? One year. Without a no-trade or no-movement clause. Sorta tells you everything you need to know about the pecking order of the Washington Capitals, wouldn't you say?

Sure, the financial uncertainty of the league had something to do with it, although it didn't stop the Caps from giving Backstrom his $67 million deal less than a year ago. This is a hockey team that has done a superb job of managing its cap situation, at least partly because an ongoing influx of young, talented players at cheap prices has given GM George McPhee lots of helpful flexibility.

To many who don't watch the Caps a lot, it might be easy to believe that Ovechkin, Backstrom and Semin are the Big Three, particularly after Semin chimed in with a 40-goal season a year ago. But that's far from the case. In fact, Leaf fans who don't much like the way Phil Kessel plays would find a lot of similarities between Kessel and Semin, particularly the way in which they prefer the periphery to those angry, messy areas much closer to the net, which contributies to the streakiness of each player. There are a lot of players like that in the league, and it's the ones like Semin who play in markets where there isn't a great deal of media scrutiny who fare the best. Put Semin on the Leafs and Kessel on the Caps and you'd see them perceived in very very different ways.

Semin's competitive reputation took a huge hit with his dreadful performance in the playoffs last spring against Montreal, and he hadn't scored in 14 games this season before being knocked to the sideline with an injury this season.

So how does that player get $6.7 million for next year, a bump up from $6 mil' this season?

Well, for starters, the Caps have the room, Semin represents secondary scoring and they still have ability to move him for other parts if they want. I've always thought he was the big chip they had to play to acquire either sturdier goaltending, a big name on defence or a physical centre, but so far McPhee has declined to do so.

Keeping Semin on a short leash - i.e. a series of one-year deals - allows the club to keep him as financially motivated as possible. The Washington Post reported the Caps were willing to give Semin at most a two-year deal. This is a player with loads and loads of pure talent, but his committment to North American life is iffy (he's been playing in Washington for eight years and speaks almost no English, or at least doesn't let on that he does) and he has yet to prove a willingness to bring it in the post-season. He probably could have hit a big number via unrestricted free agency this summer, but that would have come with a multi-year committment. On those HBO shows the only time you see Semin is when he and Ovechkin are doing their little patty-cakes routine on the bench.

You could also understand if the Caps were a little gun-shy. Backstrom, the $67 million man, has one goal in his last 25 games. The marvellously gifted Ovechkin has a decade left on his deal and is suffering through his worst NHL season, head for a 31-goal campaign. Look around the league and there's more players on these giant, decade-or-more deals who aren't doing what they did before than those that are.

So no 13-year deal for Semin, or even a six- or seven-year year committment. One year. Big money but no protection. That tells you all you need to know about the way the Caps look at Alex Semin. They'll overpay him, just not for long.

 

 

 

 

Comments

[Guelphdad]

That's what separates the good teams from the weak ones. They identify the talent and pay him for what they expect him to do and have a short time line to be tied to that player.

Look at Jason Blake, he was a 20 goal scorer who had one 40 goal season in him before he came to the Leafs. He got paid like a 40 goal scorer and I think a number of fans expected that from him, while all expectations should have been for him to regress to past performance.

I think he's another similar player to Semin and Kessel in that he's an outside shooter. Good as a supplemental player, but not a top end guy otherwise.

[Stephen]

Mr. Cox – your analysis of Semin shows why Kessel is not (and never will be) the answer for the Leafs and also shows why the idea that all that needs to be done to turn him into a star is to get a Centre to play with him is ridiculous. The Caps are smart to have a one-year, flexible commitment to Semin. The Leafs should learn from this and see Kessel as what he is – an asset to trade to a team that needs secondary scoring leading into the playoffs. He would be even more valuable if packaged with a goalie or defenseman. The Leafs TRUE top line is the Grabo line. That is the line that does all of the scoring. Kessel has a scoring touch if someone else does all of the hard work, but his work ethic shows in his being a team leading -17. The Kessel deal was a colossal mistake but it is in the past. What needs to be done now is to try and repair the damage going forward. Burke should set his ego aside and do what is right for the Leafs and trade Kessel for the best return possible before the trade deadline.

[Pension Plan Puppets]

Blake didn't get paid like a 40 goal scorer.

I'd like Damien to show how going to the net decreases streakiness. Let's have a statistical proof because nothing at all supports that thesis beyond the claims of the "seen him good" crowd.

[Wade]

Given the Cap's history with his agent Gandler in getting Semin over from the SuperLeague/KHL - e.g. the lawsuits - I'd also assume they don't want to give Semin any long term deal that could end up in a some sort of eventual hold-out mess. And it was Gandler that pressed for the 1 (or 2 max) year deal, from what I've read, not the Caps. Also...your comparison with Kessel is way off target. Semin has built up his defensive game to the point he's +8 this year and was +36 and +25 in the last two years. Kessel is what? - 19 right now? Semin has some grit, too (check out his PIM vs. Phil's). I honestly see zero similarity between the two. In fact, I think Semin would be a terrific replacement for Kessel.

[Chad]

Way to go Cox.....compare Semin to Kessel and the trash talking begins. Or was that your intention??

To all you Kessel haters out there, how about we leave him alone for a few years and let him develop his game more. He is after all only 23 years old. For now let's enjoy his speed, quick snap shot, and the ability to put himself in scoring position. Because that's what goal scorers do.

[Matt B]

Totally agree with you, Mr Cox. The two differences between Semin and Kessel are age and the surrounding talent. Kessel is 22 and can still peak. Semin is at his peaking years. If Kessel had Backstrom or the now departed Fleichmann centering him he'd be putting up 40+ goals. I believe the commenter above, Stephen, is right to suggest Kessel is trade bait but only after you've given him more quality to work with. That will be the true judge of his contribution to the Leafs.

[bill d]

Semin is more like a young Kovalev than Kessel. All three are perimeter players that don't like going into corners or jostling in front of the net. All three draw big paycheques for goal production and they all drive coaches crazy with their hot and icy cold streaks. Semin is not worth $6.7 million. I'm not in agreement with Cox that Washington has managed their payroll well. Big lengthy contracts as much as they lock the player up also make them next to untradeable should you want to rid yourself of the player when their performance goes south. Think of Eric Staal, Yashin, Di Pietro and Lecavalier as bad long term signings.

[Dick]

"Look around the league and there's more players on these giant, decade-or-more deals who aren't doing what they did before than those that are."

Damien, that right there is the most salient point ever brought forward by a journalist in this post-cap era. Bravo!

[Nick]

Mike Richards has gotta be the best long term deal out there. So far.

[jeremy]

Sorry but here's reality: there was and is ZERO chance Semin plays ANYWHERE in the NHL except for WITH OVECHKIN. I don't care what the money offer is from ANY other team, Semin stays in Washington or returns to Russia. Everybody associated with the team knows it. Why in the world would the Caps give an extended contract when it's not necessary?