Caution Is Still Appropriate

Two thoughts on James Reimer, the Morweena Miracle, this morning.

First, people gotta let go of that weird decision last week by Ron Wilson to not only rest Reimer against the Florida Panthers, but not even dress him.

If the Leafs don't make the playoffs - and it's looking bleaker by the minute - it won't be because of that loss. It will because the Leafs didn't come together as a team, really, until after Christmas. Maybe even a little later.

Maybe next season the club and its fans will pay a little more attention to the games in October and November.

Second, 28 appearances, including last night's whitewash of the awful Minnesota Wild, do not a proven NHL goalie make. All the signs are surely positive on Reimer, and he may indeed be the long-term answer in goal for the Leafs.

He might be ready to pick up next fall where he leaves off this spring.

But if that's the way the Leafs go, it'll still be a gamble, and not a smart one. If you don't want to spend the cash on Ilya Bryzgalov, it will still be necessary to go out and find a viable veteran netminder to be ready to go in case Reimer can't do in October what he's doing now.

This is a team, and a city, that should know by now the the damage that can be done by over-estimating goaltending. It happened with Andrew Raycroft, it happened with Vesa Toskala, and it happened this season with J.S. Giguere and Jonas Gustavsson.

Goaltending matters more than any other position. More to the point, you're not a proven NHL starter until you've done it over the course of several seasons, at the very least over the course of two seasons. NHL history is littered with the likes of Steve Penney. It wasn't that long ago the Canadiens believed Jose Theodore was going to be the successor to Patrick Roy. Last spring it looked like Tuukka Rask was a lock to be the starter in Boston. We all remember when Steve Mason took the NHL by storm and appeared to set up the Columbus Blue Jackets for years to come. The Senators bet everything that Pascal Leclaire would be their goalie of the present and the future and were terribly wrong.

The brilliance of Ryan Miller, Martin Brodeur, Henrik Lundqvist and others is that they've done it over the course of years, not just a half-season.

Don't get me wrong. Reimer is the individual story of this Leaf season, the best goalie prospect the Leafs have developed since Felix Potvin (speaking of goalies who didn't quite pan out) and a wonderful story, to boot. He's just a nice kid to talk to, seemingly as humble as they come.

But you can't bet everything on him just yet, or at least the Leafs can't. He needs to show more, a lot more, and the hockey club needs to provide itself with more insurance going forward in the form of an experienced goalie. The fact is he came out of nowhere this season, and it's quite funny to hear commentators who were shrieking in the fall that the Leafs had no prospects and no future suddenly arguing that Reimer is a blue-chipper.

Nothing's a sure bet, but Bryzgalov is as sure as it comes. Maybe he wants big money over six, seven years, at which point the Leafs would be out, anyway. Brian Burke doesn't seem inclined to do deals that long. But maybe Bryzgalov wants three years, and what would be wrong with a Bryzgalov-Reimer combination in net? The Leafs are way below the cap, with Giguere set to come off this summer. They have room to invest in proven goaltending. They should invest it.

 

 

 

Comments

[Jamie]

I want to disagree with you about Reimer's unproven abilities in net, over the course of a year or two as a number 1 - the truth is, they need to start somewhere... How many goalies are churned over before a bonafied number 1 is identified...?
And then I agree with investing in a proven goaltender... Winning the games early in the season are just as important as winning the final dozen...
Do you think that Gustavsson or Rynnas could be used to trade up in the draft with those two 1st rounders...?

[treborjim]

I agree that caution is appropriate when looking at what goaltenders can do for an NHL team. James Reimer is in the right place at the right time with the Leafs. In my opinion, most goalies that progress to the AHL and NHL levels are excellent if given the opportunity to prove themselves over time. The Leafs just may have another in their system right now. I would rather have 2 competitive young goalies in the lineup than having one sitting around getting paid a large chunk of the team's salary cap for things that he has done in the past.

[gwild_leaf_fan]

There IS a ReimerReason for the Leafs surge and it's clear the players LIKE playing in front of him. There are tons of intangibles that come together for players and Teams to excel and 'wanting' to play for a teammate is one of the biggest - they continue to show this when he is in goal.

[m d'ailleurs-whistlerite]

Damian, the difference I think is that JS, Raycroft and even Softgola had there brief successes elsewhere and pretty much sucked in TO, maybe it was the stress, or whatever. Reimer , on the other hand has had success here, without a top flight supporting cast.I do agree that a good veteran goalie would be a welcome addition, because I don't have faith in Jonas, he flops around spastically - and not in a Hasekian way

[Garmo]

Cox is right...remember Micheal Leighton of the flyers cup run from last year. Spent this year in the minors.

[Chad]

Damo: instead of spending big bucks on Bryzgalov as a "just in case", why not go the cheaper route (with less term) and sign Vokoun? he's a UFA as well this summer, and will come at a much cheaper price since his stock has dropped from playing in Florida the last few seasons. give him a two year contract. start Reimer next year, and if he stumbles out of the gate then start using Vokoun and give them each 50% of the starts. if Reimer picks up where he left of this season, then only give Vokoun 30% of the games. he may be older, but his save % this year in Florida is still 0.922 with a GAA of 2.57. pretty good numbers considering who he plays for.

all this talk of Reimer, and/or signing a UFA goalie in the summer, begs the question what happens to Gustavsson? he's still got another year. do they try and trade him, or just let him sit out his contract and then walk at the end of next season?

[Steven Davis]

I agree with the need for a veteran goalie, but it has to be someone who'd be happy to play 20-25 games but also be able to step in if Reimer doesn't work out. Reimer deserves to be #1 with the expectation that he'd play 55-60 games. True #1's don't usually start as backups or even as guys who share the net. They come in and take over - as Reimer has done. Bryzgalov is not a guy who wants to play 20-25 games. Disagree with you about Potvin, too. He was fine - even great with the Leafs. In fact, his stats were as good as Cujo's, and I remember a lot of "what the ...?" when Cujo was signed (ie, "why sign him when you have Potvin?") It was after he left the Leafs that he started to struggle.

[Rich]

I've gotta disagree with you. The Leaf's have a boat load of goalie prospects all shown to be excellent at the AHL level. At some point in the rebuilding process, you've got to see what you have, get rid of what you don't want and move forward. Bryz is a solid goalie but by no means stud like a Lundquist, Luongo or Rinne. Signing him for 2, 3, 4 years just delays the development of Reimer and company until they're passed their upside. There is nothing wrong with giving young goalies the chance to shine without a back-up plan (see Montreal, Washington and LA). Goalies, for the most part, have a short window for development. Some experience it young and some go through it when they're older. Nobody ever really knows when a goalies really going to 'get it' until they see it on the ice. If you look at Reimer's track record, it's hard to say that he doesn't get it right now. There's a clear track record of improvement in his numbers that suggest this is more then just a hot streak. Certainly, not having a backup plan like Bryz can blow up in your face but the Leafs have enough credible prospects to risk it without the high priced insurance of a Bryz. If Giguere wants to take a pay cut (which he likely will need to do to stay in the league) then I for sure do that deal to keep him around as a mentor but I still play my youngsters. Signing Bryz is just another iteration of the band aid approach carried over from JFjr era; sign veteran players that are perhaps passed their prime to improve now but delay the develop of younger talent. This is a new era and it's time give the kids a chance.

[stickhandle]

Detroit has shown us there is another way ... play the young cheap guy, or ride an old cheap vet. The key is the team in front of the goalie. Most, i think, goalies look great when the like on Lidstrom skate in front of them. The leafs have a pretty long history of leaning on an expensive, proven vet goalie. Worked out well with Cujo (first time) and Belfour. They hid the deficiencies of the team. But that was pre-cap. In the cap era, i think its m-i-g-h-t-y tempting to go cheap, short and young on the goalie and spend the money elsewhere. That course might be worth the gamble for this young team: let Reimer, Monster, Rynnas, and Scrivens compete for the Leafs/Marlies positions ... one's gotta emerge right?

[dirt]

agreed!! remember last season towards the end and Jonas had a great run and everyone thought he was is it, Burke was right, he found the goalie of the future, well he had a rough year this year, and is now terrible according to everyone out there....Reimer is good but not yet proven...how about Price in Montreal, great first yr, terrible second yr and now a hero again...just add to your point about killing goalies here, can you imagine if Reimer has a rough second yr in TO? Everyone would go nuts and call him a flash in the pan...good article Cox!

[spec3]

It is true that Reimer has a long way to go until he is a "proven" NHL goalie but his teammates certainly don't feel that way playing in front of him. Confidence is a huge factor for a young team and all you have to do is watch the Leafs when they score the first goal. Suddenly they figure out how to skate. Signing an older goalie for this team makes very little sense. The Leafs are not Cup contenders and probably won't be for another 3 years at least. Go young and build a team where Kessel and Phaneuf are not your key players. They have no chance if the core doesn't get stronger.

[BigM27]

Potvin had 5 excellent seasons for the leafs, then he struggled for the rest of his career. I'll take 5 excellent seasons from Riemer. And the leafs have alot of young goalies to develop. Gustafson can still be a top goalie. He has had some setbacks, it happens.

Leafs don't waste you money on Bryzgalov, spend it on a PP d-man such as James Wisniewski and a character centre such as Brooks Laich.

[Steve C.]

Oh let's not include journalists in your accusation of people who fail to pay attention to games in October and November. But you're wrong anyway: first of all, most fans here DO pay attention and secondly, what possible effect would become from fans not paying attention to those games anyway?
As for the goalie situation, the more important hole to fill in the line-up is the need for a couple of bigger power forwards. At this point, I think the Leafs should gamble on their 2 or 3 (or 4 or 5!). Why lock up Bryz (or whoever) for a long time when you have potential future stars in one or more of Reimer, Gustavsson, Rynnas, Scrivens. The time for winning a cup is still a few years away at best.

[KWood19]

From what I've heard, Bryzgalov and Francois Aulaire (sorry if thats mis-spelled) did not like each other back in Anaheim. How could Burke justify going out and signing a goalie he knows wont follow the program of one of his coaches?

[FantasyGM]

Mr. Cox. If we can get Ilya Bryzgalov for cheap, I'm all for it. I can live with $3 million a year but he's probably worth between $4.5 to $5 million. Also where's the respect to the Leaf's Goaltending Coach François Allaire and Reimer himself? Whether or not Reimer has a placebo effect on the team you have to admit the Leafs look completely different when he's in net vs Jiggy or Jonas. Confidence is everything and Reimer proved that he can bounce back from a bad game a few times this year. I think the Leafs need to spend a few bucks for that elusive centre and another defenceman rather than spending big bucks on Ilya don't you think?

[Axle Goalie]

Before reading the comments I was all for getting Bryzgalov, but I agree with most of the people here; Riemer is the man. He doesn't look like a fluke, but I would like a vet in the mix, preferably one without a soft groin (sorry Giggy), but Riemer should have every opportunity to be our #1 next season - we'd need a goalie willing to sit out if Riemer is hot. Bryzgalov may be overkill, don't we need that money for a #1 Center? Lets roll the dice!

[Paul Dunn]

While I see your points, I have to respectfully disagree. Reimer already has had more solid games then Raycroft, Toskala, Giguerre and Gustavson combined in a Leafs jersey. IF your point was being made with the Monster being substituted for Reimer then I'd agree %100. I just don't buy it with Reimer, there's no way he could "fake" it for this many games. He's the real deal and looks to be Toronto's first great goalie since the Cat. I hope that Toronto doesn't go and spend major bucks on Bryzgalov and instead uses that money to grab a top centre. A veteran backup would be a good idea but he doesn't have to cost a ton of money.

[peter lalonde]

Goaltending is not the most important thing is darn near the only thing for a rebuilding team. What Reimer has shown us is what this team could be with good goaltending. The fact is that the goaltending before him was quite weak. I agree with Damian, go get more we can't gamble on this position.

[G]

The crux of the issue seems to be the uncertainty of Reimer keeping up his hot late season play into next season - ironically this is has also been the biggest issue of the Maple Leaf post-lockout teams. Signing Bryzgalov gives you a certain degree of certainty: he has proven that he can be a very good goaltender even on a pedestrian, even mediocre, team. However, signing him may also slow the development of Reimer who has shown, albeit in a small sample size, that he can handle the role of number one. The ideal: to sign Bryzgalov to a short contract and have competition between both goalies, but its doubtful that the free agent goaltender who has proven his worth would take a short-term contract and a situation where he would not be guaranteed to be the number one, especially when he will no doubt have many suitors for his services who would hand him the same money if not more, but for more years.

[Pince]

Oh COME ON Cox! Why not just let us Leaf Fans enjoy the moment. None of the goalies you mentioned that were with the Leafs brought this much excitement and instill so much confidence in their teammates than Reimer. I don't see anything wrong with our 4 goaltending prospects as is now. If you're gonna take a gamble, why not gamble on youth? Do you really want to overpay an over-the-hill once number one goalie to come here? I certainly would not overpay to get one and I hope the Leafs don't either!

[joe covelli]

I agree that it is premature to build Reimer's statue outside the ACC. However, I disagree in adding Bryzgalov. Bringing in a veteran who expects to play will inhibit Reimer's development in many ways. Get a veteran willing to play a back-up role to continue Reimer's development. As well, Burke's cash is much needed up front where a couple of proven offensive players need to be added. The blueline actually looks okay and the goaltending (Rynnas on the farm as well) looks as good as any time in recent memory.

[Brian Hollingsworth]

I cannot agree more. I have followed this team for fifty yrs but this yr was the first time ever that I said I hated them:) Reimer is a gentleman, solid person who has paided his dues. A older veteran in net can only help the development of the young defense and Mr Reimer. Brian Burke is doing an exceptional job and i do believe a solid veteran goaltender and big front line center to help Mr Kessel and Mr Lopel be a force like the Sundin Mogliny and Roberts Line from the past.

[Michael Dell'Angelo]

It's amazing how someone would even suggest Vokoun would be behind Reimer on the Leafs depth chart if they signed him in the offseason. Really? 16% of Vokoun's career wins are shut outs. He was 3rd last year in save percentage among starting goalies, and is playing just as well this season. The only reason Burke doesn't want Vokoun as his starter next year over Reimer (other than his advancing age): Bryzgalov is also available.

Signing Bryzgalov - a goalie recently nominated for the Vezina, and arguably the primary component in Phoenix's impressive recent success - would likely be a signing that would not only push Toronto into the playoffs, but place them among the top 6 in the East. Signing him would be as shrewd a decision as any GM could make. Everyone in Toronto should be giddy that Brygalov is a free agent this summer, has a positive history with Burke, and is currently part of an organization that likely won't resign.

Toronto fans should realize that Reimer isn't an established goaltender. No fan should want Toronto to go into next season with Reimer as their starter, but there's this sense amongst Leafs fans that it would be disloyal to attempt to solidify Leafs' goaltending at the expense of Reimer's playing time; as if there's some moral prerogative behind Reimer's starting for the Leafs next year. Toronto needs established goaltending, they have the money and cap space to sign one of the best goaltenders in the league, so why wouldn't they sign Bryzgalov?

[Nick Martin]

Valid points --- more impressive young goalies flame out than become dependable or superior goalies --- but how will anyone know which Reimer will be, if Bryzgalov is playing 55 to 60 games a year? Burke's rebuild is a gamble in so many ways, and Reimer is a part of that, as are the three other young goalies the team has. Yes, goalkeeping is essential, but until and unless Reimer and the other three all turn out to be abject failures, the priority needs are up front, especially at centre.

[Chris]

This team needs to priortize. They can get all the great goaltending they want but the biggest hole they have to fill is the number one centre slot. Tyler Bozak is in way over his head. Having a guy who won't be -23 next year while putting up first line centre points will go a long way in improving the goal differential. If it can't be done then obviously you go for a veteran. I'm not sure Bryzgalov is the answer. what happens if you throw 4 mil at him and Reimer IS as good next year as he is this year? Well now you have a 4 mil Cap hit on a backup goaltender which when combined with Komisarek's 4.5 mil cap hit makes for poor cap management. I'd rather go for somebody like Jose Theodore or Tomas Vokoun who, while they may not be elite, can provide good goaltending at a bargain price (well maybe not Vokoun).