Caution Is Still Appropriate

Two thoughts on James Reimer, the Morweena Miracle, this morning.

First, people gotta let go of that weird decision last week by Ron Wilson to not only rest Reimer against the Florida Panthers, but not even dress him.

If the Leafs don't make the playoffs - and it's looking bleaker by the minute - it won't be because of that loss. It will because the Leafs didn't come together as a team, really, until after Christmas. Maybe even a little later.

Maybe next season the club and its fans will pay a little more attention to the games in October and November.

Second, 28 appearances, including last night's whitewash of the awful Minnesota Wild, do not a proven NHL goalie make. All the signs are surely positive on Reimer, and he may indeed be the long-term answer in goal for the Leafs.

He might be ready to pick up next fall where he leaves off this spring.

But if that's the way the Leafs go, it'll still be a gamble, and not a smart one. If you don't want to spend the cash on Ilya Bryzgalov, it will still be necessary to go out and find a viable veteran netminder to be ready to go in case Reimer can't do in October what he's doing now.

This is a team, and a city, that should know by now the the damage that can be done by over-estimating goaltending. It happened with Andrew Raycroft, it happened with Vesa Toskala, and it happened this season with J.S. Giguere and Jonas Gustavsson.

Goaltending matters more than any other position. More to the point, you're not a proven NHL starter until you've done it over the course of several seasons, at the very least over the course of two seasons. NHL history is littered with the likes of Steve Penney. It wasn't that long ago the Canadiens believed Jose Theodore was going to be the successor to Patrick Roy. Last spring it looked like Tuukka Rask was a lock to be the starter in Boston. We all remember when Steve Mason took the NHL by storm and appeared to set up the Columbus Blue Jackets for years to come. The Senators bet everything that Pascal Leclaire would be their goalie of the present and the future and were terribly wrong.

The brilliance of Ryan Miller, Martin Brodeur, Henrik Lundqvist and others is that they've done it over the course of years, not just a half-season.

Don't get me wrong. Reimer is the individual story of this Leaf season, the best goalie prospect the Leafs have developed since Felix Potvin (speaking of goalies who didn't quite pan out) and a wonderful story, to boot. He's just a nice kid to talk to, seemingly as humble as they come.

But you can't bet everything on him just yet, or at least the Leafs can't. He needs to show more, a lot more, and the hockey club needs to provide itself with more insurance going forward in the form of an experienced goalie. The fact is he came out of nowhere this season, and it's quite funny to hear commentators who were shrieking in the fall that the Leafs had no prospects and no future suddenly arguing that Reimer is a blue-chipper.

Nothing's a sure bet, but Bryzgalov is as sure as it comes. Maybe he wants big money over six, seven years, at which point the Leafs would be out, anyway. Brian Burke doesn't seem inclined to do deals that long. But maybe Bryzgalov wants three years, and what would be wrong with a Bryzgalov-Reimer combination in net? The Leafs are way below the cap, with Giguere set to come off this summer. They have room to invest in proven goaltending. They should invest it.

 

 

 

Comments

[Mark]

I might be inclined to agree with you, Damien, if the leafs had only one bullet in this gun.

But behind Reimer we also have Rynnas and Scrivens both developing nicely, and even Gustavsson could eventually get another kick at the can, and this is still a young, developing team.

Getting a true #1 in FA not only consigns Reimer to second fiddle or trade bait, it puts a ceiling on what we can get out of the others. I think a cheaper vet willing to take a backup role would be a more appropriate choice.

Truth be told, I wouldnt mind adding Bryzgalov that much because depth is a nice problem to have. But he'd have to be willing to spit games 60/40, and there must be no type of no trade clause, because if 2 of our young guys are comng on next year or in a later year, we could convert him for another key asset.

[Leaf Fan in Van]

Sorry to everyone who disagrees with Damo on this one. There are far too many instances in the past where goalies come out of nowhere for a year and then fade back into the night. I love what JR has done for the past 2 months, and I hope like heck he can do it for a sustained time next year; but to not go out and pick up an established guy (maybe not as established as Giggy, who is too battle worn) would be a huge mistake.
http://torontosportsfanblog.blogspot.com/

[Jack]

Damien:

You can sure remember and rattle off the names of those goalies who dropped the ball. But are you not able to recall the many more who succeeded? Why can we not speculate Reimer is one of those. We don't always have to show off our sports prowess by pointing out the obvious.

[kneeboard85]

It would be nice for Toronto sports writers to see the silver lining now and then. Is it ever fine to just enjoy someones play? If Toronto won the cup there would be articles all summer about how unlikely a repeat is and why next years team will be terrible. If in fact marquee players don't want to come to Toronto I point to articles like this as the main reason why, it seems in Toronto even when you win you lose.

[Gerhard]

I always say if you want to talk hockey with somebody who has no clue talk to a person who identifies him/herself with a specific group of millionaires. Cox is absolutely correct and each season turns up at least one flash in the pan goalie who somehow isn't as effective the next season or for the rest of his career. Sometimes it is injury, sometimes it is bad living and other times it is because they couldn't adapt the second time around the league. Is the name Jim Carrey familiar to you? Yet another keeper who looked good but fizzled out: all rookie team, first team all-star, Vezina then gone.

Most of you claiming Reimer is the real deal were making the same claims about "the monster," and before that Toskala then Raycroft. Since Belfour the Leafs have been grasping and their fans have continued believing that the NEXT goalie is really going to be great!

[Bryan Johnson]

If anyone thinks you are going to sign Vokoun for anything less than a 4 year 4-5 Mil deal you are fooling yourself. He declined a trade for 2 years and his stock is not low. Any team knows he is a huge upgrade on any better team. The Leafs can't and won't spend the money he and Briz are going to be asking for. They lucked out so far with Reimer but we'll see what a new season brings. After all we're the Leafs.....we put our eggs all in 1 basket and complain after that there was a hole in there the whole time.

[Dan]

Plain and simple, Reimer deserves a shot at number 1 next year. I'd get rid of Gusto and let Rynnas be the backup. No more mistakes on "proven" goalies....let the kids play.

[Alex]

Disagree with you on this one Damian...

Whether Reimer has a sophomore slump or not is irrelevant, really. The guy has excelled at every level he has played at and is still just a kid. Does he have 2+ season at NHL level? Not yet. But his record has always been good wherever he has been.

As far as sharing the load is concerned, Gustavson has had a rough year after giving a positive glimpse of what he can do. By all reports I've read he was excellent with the Marlies though. Again I bring up the spectre of the sophomore slump. It's not a myth. I expect him to bounce back next year and play some good games. And if he doesn't, well, Rynnas looks pretty good too doesn't he?

Some people here have suggested investing in better skaters...well, I would suggest that Burke has tried to do just that. Komisarek hasn't exactly delivered what was advertised. Phaneuf is starting to keep his promise, as are a few others like Schenn, but this plan depends so heavily on what's available in the market. What does Player X want in a contract? Is he good enough? Is he even willing to come to Toronto to play for fans who are so love-hate that they make people with bipolar disorder look stable? Once upon a time you could just pay stupid money and be done with it, but you can't plan to build through free agency in a cap market.

Personally I'd leave the situation alone. It's not broken, at least not today. The Leafs are deep in net, with three potential NHL calibre players (I exclude Scrivens only because I don't know much about him yet).

[pdh]

Damien is simply stating a very valid and proven truth. Many goalies have been one season wonders and then never seen again. Geez, it was this time last year when "Leafs Nation" was crowning Jonas Gustavsson as the next coming of Johnny Bower.

I think it is very appropriate to question the validity of Reimer's future greatness and let's wait until this time next year to place a judgement on Reimer's as a blue chip star.

Seems that Leaf fans cling to any new player as the greatest ever… and if he shows a bit of promise, should be fast tracked right to the HHOF.

The real key to Reimer's success next year is if Bluster Burke can actually back up his big talk and get some much needed top-quality players into the line up over the summer. The current defence is shaky at best… even after Burke announced at the beginning of this season is that it was the best in the league. More BS from BB will be spewed forth over the summer for sure.

[FantasyGM]

Damian, you mentioned the brilliance of Ryan Miller, Martin Brodeur and Henrik Lundqvist. Guess what else is they have in common ?? They were drafted, nutured and raised within their original teams. I don't see why Reimer can't be the same. 3 shut-outs on a bad team is no fluke. Also, a good defence is a good offence. Puck possession is so important and the Leafs desperately need a stud upfront and more consistancy from their D. With Philly, yeah they rode Leighton, but guess what? They have tonnes of farm hands that came in and stepped up in goal. I think the Leafs are the same. If Reimer is pulling a Houdini, they have plenty of depth in goal to replace him. I don't see why the Leafs need to follow the Canucks model with tonnes of money spent on a goalie. Luongo isn't even that consistent and he's getting paid tonnes. Luongo would not have survived in Toronto for the amount that he's making and what he offers. I don't think it's fair to expect the same from Ilya especially with the amount he could potentially make.

[Russlan]

Bryzgalov is an excellent goaltender and would provide stability at the position for the Leafs. It is true that Reimer has to prove that he can be a number one goaltender over the long haul. That said, there are two reasons why Bryzgalov doesn't make sense for the Leafs. For one thing, look at the contract that Craig Anderson just signed with Ottawa. It's almost certain that Bryzgalov will get more than that on the open market. Signing Bryzgalov would also prevent the Leafs from acquiring a player that would provide a bigger upgrade to the Leafs than even Bryzgalov would.

[Muesmel]

What would all the critics say if James Reimer could walk on water?

[Bill]

The spin is comparing the goalies who have come in here and cannot deal with the scrutiny of this media parade. A few seasons as a goalie proves what? Giguere, a stanley cup winner, a conn smythe winner? Proven to me he was good. Giguere comes here and you media guys don't let any decent player breathe. The media knows what sells, that is the Leafs. So you will sell any story to the fans knowing they will buy it. How many times we heard trouble in the dressing room for example. One loss from a goalie in this town, you guys are all over them questioning integrity, skills to handle the job so it sells your story. Reality is you media guys make these goalies doubt themselves. Proven this to your story, those same guys go elsewere and do better not in a Leaf uniform. Seams to me Reimer can handle the pressure, thats a plus for sure, can handle a loss and bounce right back & can stay calm in a pressure situation on the ice. This story I'm responding to is a bunch of bull and it sells your story. Go back to your doubting Kessel stories, it what much more entertaining. Leave this kid Reimer alone to develope unless you give him support.

[Aaron]

Oh please! First, as a Leafs fan not living in Toronto anymore, I can't stand the wishy-washiness of the Toronto media. When the Leafs do well, there's a parade. When they are doing miserably, they are villified. Reimer is a great goalie, period. Giguere was a flash in the pan for Anaheim and similar to your advice on Bryzgalov, the Leafs jumped on him. Same with Toskala when he was with San Jose. Gustavsson.. where was the due diligence on his heart condition??

The Leafs need not spend their money on Ilya Bryzgalov who is 30 and has had TWO good seasons with a pretty good Coyotes team backing him up. Reimer has much more upside than Bryzgalov: he's the same build and size as Bryzgalov, he's 23, and he's a rookie (cheaper). The Leafs don't need to do what they've always done and buy over the hill veterans (Eric Lindros, Owen Nolan, Hal Gill, ec..) who are either past their prime or have just come off a contract year. To parallel this scenario with baseball, Toronto fans need only look no further than the BJ Ryan signing. Damien, not a fan of this post.

[Chris]

I agree that people should not be comparing Reimer to Roy, Hasek and Brodeur after a handful of games. I disagree with the argument that the Leafs should go out and splash out on Bryzgalov. If the Leafs should have learned anything by now about acquiring goaltending, it should be that you should not overpay for a goalie that has earned his money somewhere else. The Leafs thought they were getting the goalie of the future with Raycroft and Toskala, and paid them both before they produced in Toronto. They traded for Giguere who had a huge contract for his past accomplishments.

I would prefer the Leafs followed the model of allowing your own goaltending talent to grow from within (the Wild, Habs, Bruins have all done this pretty well) or aquiring unproven goalies on the cheap (Bryz in Phoenix, the Sharks after letting Nabokov go). Spend your money elsewhere.

[Buck]

I guess being GM isn't as easy as we think. This is a tough call for Leafs as I think they were giving Reimer the bulk of work to see where he is at. It would have been an easier decision if he had stumbled, then signing a Bryzgalov would make obvious sense. He has proven himself short term, so do you gamble next year that between Reimer, The Monster (boy, how easy do Leaf fans give up on players, thank god they didn't run Lanny McDonald out of town after his trying rookie year) and Rynnas that they can do it? I believe Bryzgalov is real deal and a safer bet - negotiate on your own terms (no more than 4 years, $5.5m per) and try to get it done.

[UOG17]

To bad Damian Cox is the reason most players either leave Toronto, or never want to sign here. The team never over estimated the goal tending of Giggy or the Monster. The problem is that they play completely different styles of hockey in front of the 3 goalies. In front of the Monster the team sits back and expects him to make every save and then do very little for checking. With Reimer in net they know they cant rely on him with his lack of experience. Once the team solves this problem they will be a very solid team with the Monster and Reimer pushing each other.

[A True Leafs Fan]

Bryzgalov isn't coming to toronto I dont know where you got that from Cox. When Burke and Allaire were in anahiem, Bryzgalov refused to work with Allaire, he straight up told burke that he would not listen to him, which put burke in a tough spot...BRYZGALOV IS NOT COMING HERE DONT EVEN WASTE YOUR TIME WRITING ABOUT IT!!! Burke doesn't want him. and niether does ALlaire. we dont need a new goalie in the off season we need a new strong center for our top line... I know gustavson and giguere let in some questionable goals but alot of our goals against came from poor defending. we need to get our offense going. you know what they say. the best defence is a good offense.

[Sam]

Henrik Lundqvist didn't become Henrik Lundqvist by having his team constantly bringing in veteran goalies to compete for the job. Bringing in Bryzgalov who is a legitimate starter does not make sense for this team. If you want your goalies to develop, they have to play a lot of games!

[Brian]

Bryzgalov makes 4.5 million this year and would probably want at least 5 million a year for 5 years. we have lots of prospects in the goal tending position and it does not make any sense to tie up a huge amount of money on a 31 year old goalie
Gustavson had a 1.15 goals against average and a .955 save percentage with the marlies
Scrivens has looked great and Rynnas may be the best of the lot
i really think it is time we take a chance on our young guys

[Peter]

Reimer stopped three or four breakaways against the Wild. Raycroft didn't stop four breakaways the entire time he was in Toronto!

Reimer is the real deal. Stop worrying. Even if he turns out to be "only" as good as Felix Potvin, the Leafs will have a very capable goalie on their hands for the foreseeable future.

[Nick]

I disagree with this comparison. The difference with Raycroft, Toskala, Giggy and Gustavson, is that our expectations as fans were based on - for lack of a better word - hype. We were told Raycroft was the next best thing. We were told Toskala was going to shine. We were told Giggy was going to bring Anaheim circa 2007 to Toronto. We were told Gustavson was the best goalie outside the NHL. The difference is that, our expectations of Reimer have been entirely based on his play since being called up. I'll agree that half a season is hardly enough to measure a goalies weight in gold. But he has played extremely well during those 28 games and for that, I think that any optimism is well deserved. At some point Damien, we Torontonians will have to look at the glass as half full. Just for once.

[Barry Croll]

First off: Michael Leighton spent the year in the minors with Philly due to injury.
Secondly: I agree caution should be taken here, but there is NO disputing the fact the team plays with alot more confidence with Reimer than they have with any other goalie for many years.
Thirdly: Damien when was the last time you played hockey?? It appears too many reporters in Toronto have never played the game yet they have lots to say about the players that do!!

[Jon Yeh]

Damien:
Your belief that the Leafs need a stable goaltending presence like Bryzgalov is right on the money. Too much time has been wasted with uncertainties in net.

What all Leaf fans hope is that either Reimer or Gustuvsson or Rynas or Scrivens can develop into a stable net presence, capable of winning a game, and who the team and media respond to. In short, the hope is that they develop into a Bryzgalov. So better to go with the sure thing.

I have no doubt Burke will be after Bryzgalov and he's to hoping Ilya signs aboard.

[Al Cleverdon]

Yep and if Lundqvist,Miller and Brodeur had to wait behind a "veteran" maybe their careers wouldn't have ever taken off either.Stick with the young guys.We arent ready to really compete for the Cup for at least a few years anyway and if two of the 4 young prospects arent ready to shoulder the load "then" you go out and get a veteran goalie.