The Soap Opera Turns

It's going to be hard for the Bettman administration to portray this as a momentous triumph.

Yes, the 14th richest man in the world, David Thomson, is about to become an NHL owner, which should make him somewhat more worthy than John Rigas, Bruce McNall, Boots del Biaggio, John Spano, Bruce Firestone and some of the other folks who have successfully infiltrated the NHL's board of governors in the last 20 years. In fact, it immediately makes Thomson the richest guy at the NHL table.

That's gotta be a good thing.

But Bettman went back to Atlanta in 1999 saying the city had changed in the two decades since the Flames had left for Calgary, and that it would be different this time.

It wasn't. The Thrashers began their existence with one of the worst drafting efforts in NHL history and 12 years later are pulling up stakes. For the second time, the league is beating a hasty retreat out of Georgia, leaving a huge U.S. market for a tiny Canadian one.

During those dozen years, Bettman has said over and over and over, whether he was talking about Edmonton or Pittsburgh or Ottawa or Buffalo or Phoenix or yes, even Atlanta, that he didn't like relocating teams, that he didn't like the example it set or the message it conveyed to loyal fans.

Now, with nowhere near the fight that was put up to keep the Coyotes in Phoenix, the Thrashers are packing up the moving vans for The Peg. Market forces are market forces and those created by the downturn in the U.S. economy are powerful indeed.

Still, there's no chance this is what the NHL wanted to do, so finding a way it make it seem that's the case is going to be a real trick. It cannot portray this as a calculated maneuver. The likeliest strategy now will be to announce a season ticket campaign in Winnipeg - there are suggestions the team will be looking for a three-year committment from buyers - which will be the NHL's attempt to assert "control" over the process. It's why you're the league can say last night and today that this deal isn't official. The Bettman administration likes to stage-manage these events, and putting conditions on an already done deal after the fact is one way to at least be seen to be doing that.

Meanwhile, its going to be very hard for the NHL commissioner to ensure this isn't the beginning of a stampede to the Great White North.

For starters, interested parties in Canada now have hard evidence that a franchise can be extricated out of the U.S. and moved north. That will encourage the folks in Quebec City to get that arena up and built on schedule by 2015, and quite probably encourage those in the GTA who think announcing a new NHL-sized arena is all that would be necessary to land an existing franchise.

As well, U.S. teams spurting red ink now see a way out of their predicament, with the Thrashers likely to be sold for something well in excess of their actual value. Tampa Bay went for cheap to Jeff Vinik, and NHL owners of money-losing teams might look at Atlanta's impending sale to Winnipeg as evidence there's more money to be made - or recovered - by dealing with a Canadian suitor.

Then again, we probably already knew that, didn't we? Jim Balsillie was willing to pay a lot more for the Coyotes than Matthew Hulsizer is, and it's an intriguing debate as to whether the NHL would be a stronger league today with a Balsillie-owned franchise in Hamilton rather than the taxpayer-supported mess in Glendale.

Phoenix still doesn't have an owner. Meanwhile Florida and Columbus are two clubs that will be watched carefully now for possible moves. If a real arena project ever gets announced in the GTA - Markham rumours are rife - you know that will generate all kinds of momentum. Let's just say if there was a building set to open in the GTA in the next two years, there would be two or more NHL clubs angling to move into it, with or without NHL permission.

 

 

 

 

 

 

Comments

[George TheCar]

There is an interesting conundrum about hockey in Canada.

More NHL teams could be supported at the gate but the TV audience is just about maxxed out and it is TV money that is the key to long term profitability.

So no matter how many teams might want to come to Canada,Winnipeg and Quebec will dilute the tv money available to each team as will every team after them. Dividing up the pie can only go on so long which is why the Canadian teams have been resisting more teams migrating north

[Peter]

I wonder if Don Waddell will be blacklisted by the NHL now. If he didn't do such a terrible job as GM, the Thrashers might not be in the position they are in now.

The sad truth is though, that as much as I want to see NHL teams back in Canada I really do understand why they're trying to make it work in the US. It all comes down to numbers, population specifically. If you have a city in the US with 5 million people or a city in Canada with 700,000 people, it's really no comparison where the greater potential lies. If you can get only 10% of the population in the US city following the team it would still work better than 50% following the team in the Canadian city. You wonder what could have happened to those sunbelt teams if they had competent management that put out consistent winners rather than the consistent lottery teams they had.

[Kenii]

Peter, I would agree with you, but there some problems with the numbers you presented. If you look up the "List of United States cities by population" on Wikipedia you'll notice that there's really only one city with a population greater than 5 million (New York). There are only 9 incorporated cities with a population greater than one million. The teams for which relocation was mentioned (e.g. Florida, Columbus, Phoenix, etc.) are located in cities with relatively small populations. Although Phoenix has ~1.4 million, it's average attendance this past season was only about 12000; that's ~0.86% support at the arena; nowhere near 50%. I'm probably being biased but even if TV viewership is considered, I'd like to think that Canadians can match the level of support that Americans provide, just because it's so imbedded in Canadian culture.

In terms of putting out "consistent winners," that depends on what you mean by "consistent" (annually? bi-annually?) and "winner" (Stanley Cup Winner? Playoff Contender?). Realistically, no team can win the Stanley Cup every year.

[GMO]

15 years they've had in Phoenix and the hockey ratings are dismal there. TV ratings in the US are poor overall. Wednesday night Sharks/Canucks drew 847,000 viewers, narrowly beating out a rerun of Real World: Las Vegas and Chelsey Lately. Just about everything else beat it - King of the Hill, Family Guy (by a mile), Operation Repo...

Wings vs Sharks Game 7 drew 1.251 million viewers. Bulls vs Hawks game 6 same night drew 5.085 million. Wings/Sharks only beat Manhunters on Discovery.

Sure, there's lots of room to increase viewership - but that's only because it's so low to begin with in the US. And we're nigh on 25 years into this project.

[Carlos]

I wonder if the league would ever consider contraction now, if too many struggling US teams wanted to move. Or would the league prefer to try and spin the moves as a positive while pocketing the multi-million dollar transfer fees?

[Ryan Fagan]

While as a big fan of the Atlanta area, having lived there for a while a few years back, I can honestly say that no one there really rallied behind the team. I remember during the lockout in 04-05 having to look to media in other markets to get updates regarding the lockout... No news agency in Atlanta was keeping on top of it. I can say that the ECHL team in the Atlanta Area, the Gwinett Gladiators, has a much larger following there than the Thrashers ever did. Congrats to Winnipeg! http://faganaround.tumblr.com/post/5669205146/atlanta-thrashers-moving-to-winnipeg

[Flying Fidoo]

All good points made by previous submitters. As much as I hate to credit Bettman with anything, he did have a point with regards to Hamilton in that the US market has no clue where it is nor do they care. Hey I live there and would love a team in Hamilton but I understand Bettmans point, to a point. Its the same problem I have with watching the AHL. I have no clue where some of the teams are from and dont care. It's like watching B movies.
Do I think NHL teams in Canada would be successful? Of course but would the NHL survive in Canada alone. No.

[Billcanuck]

@George TheCar, I'm afraid you're thinking under the old broadcasting paradigm which is soon going to go the way of the recording industry. On demand content from multiple, online media will be order of the day soon enough. When this happens, the number of viewers will be crucial. It won't be a case of dividing up a single pie but rather creating more pies where there's demand.

The hard truth is that a team in Winnipeg will generate more viewer interest than one in Atlanta. Those Winnipeg viewers are also more likely to pay for the content than those in Georgia.

[Beefsarnie]

We all know that Bobblehead Gary Bettman will do anything and everything in his power to stop mass expansion to Canada.

[Paulywalnuts]

Things of that scope take more than a week and thats as long as they have been
talking so far. Wait and see if they don't end up in Kansas.

[Chris]

Good article, but why are you putting Firestone in a list with a bunch of criminals and fraudsters? Yes, he didn't have much money, and the team's finances were a house of cards, but as far as I remember, he wasn't a crook, and is thought of highly in Ottawa for pulling off the impossible.

So, Quebec would be next, but what are the chances of another Southern Ontario team? That would be huge ! I think Kitchener by the 401 is most feasible.

[Hans Koscielny]

One thing is certain. Stopping teams from moving to Canada is Bettman's number 1 priority. I think he would even lie down in front of the moving vans if he thought it would work. .

[Jeffrey93]

Damien...you really need to give up on this Toronto II team/arena thing. It isn't going to happen.
MLSE would rather buy the new arena and implode it than allow it to operate in their region.

It's Hamilton for Southern Ontario or nothing. MLSE already deals with Copps Coliseum as a competing venue, they could even be offered some management rights to it as a territorial fee. That is light years better for ALL INVOLVED than a brand new venue in MLSE's backyard.

Sports teams don't get plunked down wherever people please...in fact, a new arena in Markham would likely cause MLSE to actually push the NHL to put a team in Hamilton. That way they know the venue in Markham will struggle and not likely be a large concern.

[john]

With Blackberry and Balsillie as sponsors for the NHL this gives Hamiltonians hope but Iam from Hamilton and I have waited over 40 years for an NHL team and Canadians are angry because after decades,a full generation ,and 34 years of American Commissioners running the NHL, parts of Canada like S/W Ontario have been deliberately ignored.Since Bettman took control there has been 11 American teams added and 1 Canadian team with teams like Phoenix,Nashville and Columbus having no hockey history while, S/W Ontario has well over 100 years of hockey history but no team added.The writing is on the wall "It belongs to America, and to hell with Canada and Canadians"and thats what Ziegler must have passed on to Bettman.Imagine we shared the NHl with Americans about 90 years ago and look at us now with 6 teams to the 24 U.S teams.I say again "The NHL belongs to America and to hell with Canada and Canadians",that is the adopted Bettman attitude.

[fanagainstadsinsidethebluelines]

I'm all for more NHL hockey teams in Canada!! Bring it on home!!

Now for a Rant Alert:

Keep pasting those g&%d*#@%d advertisements all over the ice and watch the true blue hockey purists kiss off the league. Look at the ice for the Memorial Cup, or even worse, the Spangler Cup, for K%$#t sakes, it is a travesty. Olympic hockey is about all that is left to be able to watch Canada's great game on ad-free ice. Fans should draw the line with ads inside the blueline.

The boards and centre ice aren't enough, eh?! After every inch of white ice is taken up, what will be left? Corporate logos tatooed onto players foreheads!? (good idea, eh?) When, for those marketing a##h%@&s is enough enough!!! "Season's Greetings" and "Stanley Cup Playoffs" inside the blueline. It is so transparent, a strategy to get fans used to placing paint all over the place.

Oh, and as for corporations placing those ads on the ice. What a great signal for this fan NOT to partake in your products or services!! P#$$ O##

Oh, it keeps ticket prices down... ha ha ah ha ha ha!!!

I'm just creeped out with the creeping ad on ice trend, okay :^)

End of Rant Alert

[PlaidShirt]

Forget make it 7! Make it 11!

As long as 10 pin bowling can consistently get a larger TV audience in the US than NHL playoff hockey, then teams will come to Canada. That trillion dollar US TV contract is a figment of Bettman's imagination. Major US corporate advertisers have cut back their budgets. Golf and NASCAR are hurting big time due to lack of sponsors. Sport revenues are reverting to old time gate receipts as their life blood. Hockey can get that only in Canada. Next up Regina. Then QC City. Then Hamilton. Then GTA. After that it's time to start folding teams up. Depending on how collective bargaining goes for the new contract, there will probably be a rush of owners trying to stop bleeding red ink and get some of their investment back.