Avoiding The Silly Season

Alex Anthopoulos and Brian Burke know one another, and have compared notes from time to time on the differences and similarities between the industries in which they work.

What Anthopoloulos is dealing with today, Burke was dealing with on July 1st, and that's the inflated expectations of a fan base that has put up with years of mediocrity and now wants to see instant additions to the roster capable of transforming the team into a winner.

Yep, it's free agent time in baseball. And just as Burke had Leaf Nation in full throat back in July calling for millions to be thrown at Brad Richards - however many millions it would take to lure Richards to Toronto - Anthopoloulos now has dreams of Prince Fielder, Albert Pujols and Jonathan Papelbon dancing in the heads of Jays supporters.

The scenarios are worth comparing, particularly since both Toronto's hockey and baseball teams are young squads hoping to become winners.

The Leafs, and Burke, were bashed from pillar to post for failing to sign Richards, who went, just as everyone expected, to the New York Rangers. Burke was in Afghanistan visiting Canadian troops, in constant contact with his large crew of advisors and assistants at the home office, but was still visited with absurd allegations that he was somehow neglecting his duties at home, the proof being that Richards wasn't signed.

Well, the Leafs did end up signing Tim Connolly, and added a few pieces. None broke the bank, none have yet been particularly impactful. In fact, the most significant addition since the end of last season may have been David Steckel. Yet despite failing to make a huge splash in free agency last July, the team is off to a terrific start, perhaps suggesting that those who screamed that all was lost because Richards became a Blueshirt might have been off the mark a little. Indeed, seeing Richards second on the Rangers cap at $6.666 million per season until the completion of the 2019-20 campaign might make you blanche, particularly given his (52nd in league scoring) and New York's performance in the very early parts of this season.

He was probably going to the Rangers the whole way, but in the end, the length and sheer size of the deal didn't make sense to the Leafs, and they dropped out. Maybe they never really had a shot, but as of now, they're not regretting it.

That's the thing about free agency. As shiny as the available baubles might look, it still has to make sense.

So if Pujols wants 10 years at $200 million, Rogers probably has the dough, but would it make any sense? That's the kind of question Anthopolous has to deal with at a time when expectations are extremely high that he will be able to to significantly enhance his roster between now and the end of the baseball winter meetings in December.

If he does nothing, or something small, there will be disappointment. He'll just have to suck it up for now and wait until the hunting is more fruitful. But over-paying just to make the fans feel better makes no sense. As a hockey man of note once said, start listening to the fans too much, and you'll end up sitting with them. Or maybe it wasn't a hockey man. Seems a maxim that applies to all sports.

We'll see what happens with the Jays. The baseball free agent financial numbers are high, there are many needy and deep-pocketed bidders, and the appeal of Toronto as a destination for major leaguers is unclear. Anthopoulos has multiple needs - closer, second baseman etc. - which makes it trickier to prioritize and apportion dollars to specific needs and players.

Good thing Tony LaCava's sticking around. He's clearly what Dave Nonis is to Burke, the sombre voice of reason and second thought, something GMs need at this time of the year when it's easy to make a very large, and very expensive error.

 

 

 

 

Comments

[Peter]

Sorry, but I think outside of a few loudmouth idiots, nobody in their right mind wanted Richerds on the Leafs for the money he was demanding. Looks good on the Rangers thou, together with Avery.

[Rob K]

Hi Damien,

To be fair, I don't think Jays fans are as delusional as some Leafs fans are. There are two types of Leafs fans - the ones who are crazy and think the team is always one or two players away from winning the cup and the rest who are based in reality and know the team stinks (recent start aside).

If there's a reason Jays fans are clamouring for these free agents I think it's based in calling Rogers bluff and see how much they're willing to spend on the team. The players you suggested may never pan out and the albatross contracts shouldn't be sought but fans want to see the extent of Rogers commitment.

[Guelphdad]

The fans want the players but don't necessarily come out to see the players (see Jays attendance totals for Roger Clemens for instance).

The Jays are still too many pieces away. you don't need to spend $15-20 million a season on a single player. One player doesn't make you a champion overnight.

Would it make them better if they had Pujols, most definitely. But it wouldn't guarantee a shot at the playoffs never mind the World Series.

Look back to when David Cone, Ricky Henderson etc were added, when the Jays were at/near the top and those pieces pushed them over. They're a long way from being in that position with this team, it wouldn't make sense to break the bank at this time.

[MSmith]

One key difference: no salary cap.
Fans have not seen this team IN THE playoffs since the early 90s. Seats are empty. It's well past time to make a big splash.

[DS]

10 years and $200 million? Hahaha. Try 10 years and $300 million. And considering he is the best baseball player since Hank Aaron - heck, maybe even the best ever - he might even be worth it.

[Mike Hassanally]

The Jays and Leafs are in similar situations indeed to an extent. There are however some marked differences. While the Leafs lived high on the hog pre cap era signing whomever they wanted, they've now, through Burke, decided to stockpile young talent with hopes they will either prosper here or can be used as traid bait for other talent. The Jays are under no cap restrictions, but have been stockpiling for years and years now. Now is the time for them to move forward and bring in some big guns to push us over the hump so we can compete with the big fish of our division. The Leafs can follow suit in the near future. Let's hope it doesn't take the Leafs as long as the Jays to make it back to the post season.

[Jesse Silvertown]

Damien,

While I agree with the premise of your article, I think it is worth pointing out that the situations are not as similar as you make them out to be. Depending on who you ask, Pujols is anywhere from a top 5 hitter to the best in the game. Richards has never even been the best player on his own team. No matter the sport, overpaying for the superstars is rarely a regrettable move. It's the overpayment of the next tier of players that usually comes back to bite a team.

That said, Pujols would never sign anywhere for 10 years and $200Million. While I don't believe we will sign him, I think it will take an AAV of $30Million to make it happen.

Please just stay away from CJ Wilson.

[mjfn]

No way the Jays even give Pujois or Fielder a sniff. AA and Rogers are too tight-fisted.

[jimmy]

I agree that the Richards / Fielder comparison is apt, however, if the Leafs could have signed Ovechkin for that money, it would have been worth it. Similarily, I believe that it would be impossible to over pay for Pujols, since he is maybe a top ten all time player.

[Derek]

A team that hasn't sniffed a championship in 40 years is hardly a model franchise who should be emulated. The Jays should follow their own path and just because the GM of the Blue Jays says he's going to make a big splash in the off season, it does not mean he's going after a big name free agent. The team has always been active on the trade market and will probably continue to do so.

[J]

"I believe that it would be impossible to over pay for Pujols, since he is maybe a top ten all time player."

That's what people thought about A-Rod way back when, and he played a much more critical position as well. Is Pujols worth $30 mil? Depends on if you're getting last year's Pujols or the 10 years before that. Is he worth $30 mil when he's 37? 38? 39? 40? 41? Those are the years his contract will likely end up being an albatross.

[Rob]

Like DS said, 10 years $200 million would be a huge deal for the Jays if they manage to pull that one off. Pujols would be taking a huge discount to sign for that and there's no reason he'd give the Jays that kind of discount. The numbers I was hearing lately were 8 years $230 million.

Anyways, I know that some Jays fans are clamouring for a big free agent signing, but given that Anthopoulous has repeatedly, publicly, disavowed signing major free agents until the team is ready to contend for a title, and that the Jays are not ready to contend, I don't think we have to be worried.

[Conn Smythe]

'A team that hasn't sniffed a championship in 40 years is hardly a model franchise who should be emulated.' I guess you missed the part about Cox saying AA and Burke compare notes and know each other. What does Burke being with the Leafs for 3 years have to do with the Leafs not winning a championship in the past 40 years? Right. Absolutely nothing.