Shifting Landscapes

So here's the grand conspiracy theory.

Pat Brisson, super agent to the stars, becomes the new GM of the Montreal Canadiens.

His star client, Sidney Crosby, follows him as a unrestricted free agent to the Habs in the summer of 2013. You know, the same Montreal team that drafted his father, Troy.

And we all know how hockey fans, particularly Canadian hockey fans, love conspiracy chatter.

For now, while the Habs figure out exactly who will be designated master of all hockey operations in Montreal, we'll have to do with the race for 29th.

Let's face it, Columbus can't be caught for 30th. They're dug in, and will have the greatest chance of getting the first overall pick in the 2012 entry draft.

But you've got Edmonton, Montreal, Toronto and Minnesota all bunched in pretty tightly after the Jackets, vying to get the best pick possible.

Odd thing is, this might not be the year to be No. 1. Or at least in theory, you might be just as well off picking fifth.

Here's the layout. The two top picks are both forwards and Russians, Nail Yakupov and Mikhail Grigorenko. Columbus, after Nikolai Zherdev and Nikita Filatov, may prefer to take neither. If they don't move the pick, its at least possible that rock-solid Everett defenceman Ryan Murray could go No. 1. Murray isn't flashy, but he'll play.

If other teams that follow are as leery of possible KHL defections by Yakupov and Grigorenko as many teams are, both could fall. Well, fall a little.

Swedish forward Filip Forsberg, a strong two-way centre, is there. So is Kitchener centre Radek Faksa. Then you get into the other defencemen. If Edmonton goes at No. 2, do they finally start filling out positions and go for strapping, hometown Oil Kings blueliner Griffin Reinhart?

So in theory, a team picking fourth, fifth or sixth might get a shot at Grigorenko, and maybe even Yakupov. It might not be worth it to move up in the draft order. In fact, it might make the most sense to try and move down.

Weird year, particularly with top prospects like Alex Galchenyuk and Morgan Rielly injured for lengthy periods, and players like Ottawa 67s D-man Cody Ceci rocketing up the charts.

With the Leafs, Habs, Oilers, Jets and Flames all likely out of the playoff mix, much of the chatter in Canada won't be about the post-season, that's for sure.

 

 

 

 

Canadiens fire GM Pierre Gauthier after dismal season

Less than three weeks ago Pierre Gauthier stood poolside at a luxurious Florida resort, exuding confidence he would remain a member of the 30-member NHL general managers club.

“We’re moving forward,” said Gauthier with a broad smile.

Well, it turns out his confidence was misplaced.

With just days remaining in what has been a disastrous season for the legendary Montreal Canadiens, Gauthier was dismissed today, a move that will spark immediate speculation that former Montreal goaltending superstar Patrick Roy will soon become the new kingpin of the Habs hockey operation.

The club has only said the search for Gauthier's successor has begun. His dismissal suggests head coach Randy Cunneyworth is unlikely to survive beyond the conclusion of this last place season.

The man Gauthier replaced as GM, Bob Gainey, is also likely to become part of the rumour mill in coming days, although his return seems unlikely. Moreover, Gainey has been Gauthier's closest advisor this season. The day Gauthier expressed confidence in his future in Florida, he was off to visit Gainey at his nearby home.

The colossal errors committed by the Montreal front office this season, notably the firing of Jacques Martin and the hiring of the non-French speaking Cunneyworth as head coach combined with the team's dismal win-loss record to seal Gauthier's fate. He was permitted to make the big deal that sent Mike Cammalleri to Calgary, but ownership apparently wants to get a new management group in as soon as possible. In June, the Habs will have their highest entry draft position in decades.

Roy has been linked to the Habs for months as a possible coach or GM. He has also been linked to a possible new Quebec City franchise.

Leafs Pitching Hard for Black Bear Star

Spencer Abbott hasn't signed with the Maple Leafs. But word is he's close.

The star forward with the NCAA Maine Black Bears, who were eliminated by the University of Minnesota-Duluth this week, is being aggressively courted by a number of teams and is apparently leaning towards Toronto, although its not a done deal.

(Ed note: It is now a done deal as of about 4:30 ET. Abbott is now a Leaf, although he will report for the rest of this season to the AHL Marlies.)

At 23 and 5-foot-10, the right-handed shooting forward isn't exactly what the doctor ordered for what ails the Leafs. But he's highly skilled, was named Hockey East's player-of-the-year this season and - be still my heart - is from Ontario. Hamilton, to be precise, and he lists the Leafs as his favourite team.

The Leafs have been aggressive in the NCAA free agent market in recent years but have only unearthed one bona fide NHLer, Tyler Bozak, so far. Still, signing such players is cheaper than a draft pick, and the success of Bozak and Teddy Purcell in Tampa (signed originally by L.A.) suggests sometimes its worth the effort. Goalie Ben Scrivens was also a college free agent and he played a few games for the Leafs this season.

Abbott had 62 points in 39 games this season and is one of 10 finalists for the Hobey Baker Award. He played Jr. A for the Hamilton Red Wings. If signed, he could head immediately to the AHL Marlies.

The Leafs had interest in another U.S. college free agent, Dan Dekeyser of Western Michigan, but he has apparently decided to go back to school.

Related: More on Spencer Abbott.

Taylor Less Than Tyler?

The Maple Leafs aren't the only team these days who might watch Tyler Seguin play and wonder about what might have been.

Now, we won't actually know the real answer to whether the Edmonton Oilers were correct in selecting Taylor Hall first overall ahead of Seguin in the Great Draft Debate of 2010 for quite some time, but we do know for sure that better health has followed Seguin so far, he has a Stanley Cup ring and Hall, for the second straight year, will end the season on the injured list.

Let's compare, while all the while keeping in mind that Seguin plays for a much stronger Boston team. That means two things; he doesn't necessarily get the ice time and opportunities that Hall does, but on the other hand, being surrounded with better players can allow for a steeper improvement curve.

For starters, Seguin has played 149 games in his first two seasons compared to 126 for Hall. Seguin had 11 goals in spot duty last year, while this year in a full-time role he has 26 goals, 35 assists and a superb plus-28 rating, again at least partly a function of being on a sturdy Bruins squad. Hall had 22 goals in his rookie season, and this year has 27 goals and 26 assists to go with a minus-three rating.

Over two seasons, Seguin's points-per-game ratio is .56, while Hall's is much better at .75 points per game. Just five of Seguin's 37 career goals have come on the powerplay, and six have been game-winners; 21 of Hall's 49 goals have been scored on the power play with 11 game winners.

Statisically, then, Hall is still ahead, although again, its worth keeping in mind he has received many more opportunities in goal-scoring situations on a free-wheeling Edmonton team, while Seguin had to serve an apprenticeship last year and is somewhat confined by Claude Julien's tight-checking system.

Seguin already has 13 games of Stanley Cup playoff experience, while its unclear when Hall will get to play his first post-season match, a far cry from his days with the wildly successful Windsor Spitfires of the OHL.

That brings us to the health issue, and there seems to be a little bit of Wendel Clark Syndrome to Hall in terms of his sometimes kamikaze-style of play, the number of games he has already missed to injury and the wide variety of problems he has encountered.

Hall has been shut down this season with two problems. He hasn't played since March 16 because of a concussion, and a torn shoulder labrum that has been a problem since junior hockey will now require surgery which will sideline him for 5-6 months. Hall apparently has been playing with a badly damaged shoulder this season since Nov. 26.

Two teammates, Shawn Horcoff and Ales Hemsky, have had the same shoulder surgery that is now pending for Hall, and its an open question as to whether either Horcoff or Hemsky has been the same player since.

Earlier this season, Hall also suffered a gruesome, 30-stitch facial laceration during warmup when he was accidentally kicked in the head by a teammate. He wasn't wearing a helmet.

Last season, in early March he suffered a season ending high ankle sprain in a fight with Derek Dorsett of the Columbus Blue Jackets. He was third in NHL rookie scoring at the time.

With this year's No. 1 pick, Ryan Nugent-Hopkins, having also had to deal with injuries, its an intriguing question as to whether saddling 18-year-olds with heavy workloads in an NHL that includes, by the league's own stats, much more hitting and physical play than before the lockout exposes them to a greater injury risk before their teenage bodies are ready for it.

In the case of Hall and RNH, they've both had to play a lot as 18-year-olds, and usually against the best defenders of the opposing team. Last season, Hall averaged 18:12 of ice time per game, about the same as this season (18:13).

With Seguin, he was 17th on the Bruins in total ice time with 12:12 last year, and while increased to 16:58 this season, its still less than Hall has averaged either season.

Both are breathtaking young talents, and only Jeff Skinner, at this point, is arguably a better player out of the '10 draft class. Interestingly, Skinner has also been battered by injury issues this season in his second NHL campaign.

So the Taylor vs. Tyler debate will continue to be an interesting one, unlikely to be resolved in any meaningful way for another, oh, 15 years. You can argue this one about six different ways. But if Hall can't stay healthier than he's been able to so far in two NHL seasons, it doesn't bode well.

 

 

 

 

Too Close To Call

Nobody wants to die. With three points separating six teams, and only three available spots, the combat for playoff berths in the Western Conference has turned into a remarkable race down in the final two weeks of the season.

Well, remarkable in the sense that the Sharks, Coyotes, Stars, Kings, Avalanche and Flames all still are teetering on the precipice. Not so remarkable if you're interested in the "races" for positions higher in the standings, but that's how the NHL works; the intrigue in the final weeks is always about seventh and eighth, not first and second. Plus you have the ridiculous situation of the third place team in the west having, as of this morning, nine fewer points than the fourth place team. They gotta fix that.

Be that as it may, another night in the west on Monday night shifted the drama a little more - easterners interested in Winnipeg's desperate but apparently ill-fated push in the east may not be looking past Manitoba's western border quite yet - and we can agree the stakes are excruciatingly high for all of these Western Conference teams.

in Calgary, the future looks dim and GM Jay Feaster, by his words and actions, has made it all about this season. San Jose, after so many playoff disappointments, should be the class of this sub-group, and certainly the management team led by Doug Wilson would be beleaguered to say the least if the playoffs began without the Sharks in them. In L.A., moves were made last spring and this winter to get this team of promise to a position where it can win a Cup, and now it may not make the playoffs at all.

In Dallas and Denver, buildings that used to be full to see strong teams are now often one-third or more empty. These are situations in which a post-season berth could make a big, big difference in the business picture, particularly in Texas where new owner Tom Gagliardi is endeavouring to get that once powerful franchise on the move again.

And then, of course, there's the Coyotes, who again are fighting for a playoff spot at the same time their future - or their relocation - is a hot topic. Surely the NHL can't again wait into May, and while the announcement of plans to break ground on a new rink in Quebec City in September adds to the picture, it doesn't yet really clarify things, either. One might have hoped the good teams organized by Don Maloney and Dave Tippett in the desert the past few seasons might have coaxed a few more customers to support the squad, but indifference remains.

Four more huge games loom on Wednesday, with the Calgary-L.A. tilt threatening to deal a knockout blow to the loser. The Avs, meanwhile, are in the unenviable position of needing to go into Vancouver and get a win after three straight losses have put Joe Sacco's club in desperate straits, particularly having played more games than the others. The good news for Colorado is with Matt Duchene and Gabriel Landeskog they may have a 1-2 centre ice combo for years to come; the difficult news is that they may not be ready to win quite yet despite the fact the pre-deadline addition of Steve Downie has made a positive impact.

For an easterner, its about an investment in late-night viewing, and a willingness to sacrifice sleep. But this Western Conference stuff is gripping, both in the action and the nature of the franchise situations involved.

Being left on the outside could bring major consequences.

 

 

 

 

 

Romero Rolling

DUNEDIN, Fla.--Of all the things John Farrell can spend his spring worrying about, his staff ace appears not to be one of them.

In stark contrast to last spring when he struggled and scuffled in the pre-season before getting it all together after opening day, Blue Jays lefthander Ricky Romero has been almost if not quite perfect in his opening Grapefruit League outings this spring.

That includes Friday's four hitless innings against the Tampa Bay Rays, a sterling performance in which Romero walked leadoff man Desmond Jennings twice but otherwise handcuffed the rest of the Tampa lineup in facing just one batter over the minimum. In nine innings this spring, Romero has yet to allow a run and has given up only two hits.

That's pretty darn dominant.

It appears that Romero is growing more confident by the day not only with his status as the club's No. 1 starting pitcher, but also a key leader in the youthful Jays clubhouse.

With the rest of the Jays rotation still being worked out - Brandon Morrow looks set at No. 2, while Henderson Alvarez, Dustin McGowan and Brett Cecil jostle for the other three spots - Romero's sturdy start to the spring is even more meaningful to Farrell, the club's manager. All spring, Farrell has spoken of the need for the rotation to contribute more good innings this season compared to last, and like Roy Halladay once upon a time, Romero is giving the rest of the staff a standard to work towards.

After walking Jennings on four pitches to start the game, Romero settled right down and quickly worked his way through the Tampa lineup, hitting the low 90s on the radar gun. He struck out four Rays and three 51 pitches in all, 29 for strikes.

Not much more you can ask for with the season still three weeks away. Romero is the leading light in what has so far been an impressive spring for the Jays. 

 

Romero Rolling

DUNEDIN, Fla.--Of all the things John Farrell can spend his spring worrying about, his staff ace appears not to be one of them.

In stark contrast to last spring when he struggled and scuffled in the pre-season before getting it all together after opening day, lefthander Ricky Romero has been almost if not quite perfect in his opening Grapefruit League outings this spring.

That includes Friday's four hitless innings against the Tampa Bay Rays, a sterling performance in which Romero walked leadoff man Desmond Jennings twice but otherwise handcuffed the rest of the Tampa lineup in facing just one batter over the minimum. In 10 innings this spring, Romero has yet to allow a run and has given up only two hits.

That's pretty darn dominant.

 

Ending with a Foreboding Whimper

BOCA RATON, Fla.--These never were particularly stirring meetings, at least not when compared to recent NHL general manager gatherings that wera accompanied by shrieking outrage about violence in the sport.

But there is the proposed change to the icing rules - yet to be approved by the NHL Players Association - and there was the ruling on the eligibility of Alexander Radulov, who may yet join the Nashville Predators for the rest of this season and playoffs.

Interesting stuff.

But it all came to a roaring halt on the final day when the elephant in the room - the Sept. 15 expiration of the league's collective bargaining agreement with the union - came up for discussion. Well, came up for questions from the media, at least, directed towards commissioner Gary Bettman.

"We've told the clubs to conduct business as  usual," said Bettman. "As far as an update, there is no update. There's nothing going on."

No talks have been held, none are planned. All we really know is that on July 1st the salary cap is likely to jump from about $64.3 million to, possibly, in excess of $70 million, and that teams are going to have some very tricky strategic thinking on the part of the 30 clubs. How do you sign a free agent without knowing what the cap will be, if there will be another salary rollback or if there will be need limitations on so-called "backsliding" contracts?

Bettman says he doesn't know when talks may start.

"Ask the (union)," said Bettman. "We've been ready. But I'm not concerned. There's lots of time."

The union didn't have much more to say on that front.

"We are continuing to meet with players across the league as part of our preparations for the upcoming CBA negotiations," said NHLPA spokesman Jonathan Weatherdon. "At our request, the NHL recently supplied the NHLPA with some initial financial information that we are currently reviewing. While we do not have a set-date for formal negotiations to begin, we expect negotiations will begin when we have players available to participate in bargaining sessions."

The last time the CBA expired, it wiped out an entire season. That was several NHLPA executive directors ago, and long enough ago that former players like Brendan Shanahan, Joe Nieuwendyk and Steve Yzerman have moved across the table from the union side to the NHL side.

The signs another lockout can be avoided aren't good. The union killed an ambitious realignment proposal several months ago, and efforts by the league to mimic what happened in other pro sports leagues and cut the players share of overall revenues to 50 per cent or less - the NHL is currently at 57 per cent - will be met by stiff resistance from the NHLPA, now led by former baseball union leader Don Fehr.

That said, the league and the union were able to agree on the status of Radulov, and there was a recent negotiated agreement on the definition and calculation of hockey related revenues (HRR) that suggested an ability of the two sides to work together.

Bettman wouldn't discuss what the new CBA could look like, or much about the current one and how it is working.

"The fundamentals of the system have done what we expected," he said. "I'm sure both sides are going to have issues they will want to focus on.

"Look, I understand the fixation on collective bargaining. But we're not even bargaining yet." 

 

 

Another Step Forward

It won't always be this way for Milos Raonic in the wake of defeat, so he better enjoy it while he can.

For now, however, there are victories even in losses, as was the case Tuesday night in his hard-fought match against Switzerland's Roger Federer at Indian Wells.

Federer, winner of 16 Grand Slams and still No. 3 in the world, needed all his ammunition to outlast the Maple Leaf Missile in a 6-7, 6-2, 6-4 triumph that was the latest piece of hard evidence that Raonic can now compete with the best in the world.

At some point, Raonic will have to break through in one of these big tournaments after being to a number of finals at smaller tourneys and capturing three ATP titles over the past year. Perhaps his match against Lleyton Hewitt at the Australian Open could have been such a match, but wasn't. Perhaps his clash with Federer could have been that moment, but the Swiss master had more game and fended off the 21-year-old from Thornhill.

To get to the top 10 in the world, Raonic will eventually have to win one of these. For now, however, the poise and fight he showed in taking Federer three sets and giving him quite the scare was another building block in a career that still is trending upwards.

In a match carried across Canada, Raonic certainly provided some thrills by winning the first set in a tiebreak, a clear signal he wasn't going to be intimidated by Federer, still to many the greatest player ever to play the sport. He fell off in the second and was broken twice by Federer, but then righted himself and fought hard deep into the third set.

Unable to break Federer's serve at all on the night, Raonic had to hope he could push the third set to another tiebreak if he was to win. in the seventh game of the third with the match deadlocked at 3-3, Raonic was up 30-15 but then shanked a forehand to put himself on the precipice.

On the next point, Federer pushed Raonic deep behind the baseline and then pounded home a forehand winner. On game point, he returned a bullet serve from the Canadian short to Raonic's backhand. Raonic tried to slice the ball low to Federer's backhand, but in so doing opened up the court for a backhand winner and the decisive break of serve.

Federer then held twice more to win the match, although Raonic had two terrific service return winners and didn't help his cause by failing to challenge two line calls that replays showed would have gone his way if he had challenged.

In all, Raonic had 10 aces and kept the unforced errors to a minimum. After his serve left him in the second set, he found it again in the third. On the down side, there were moments of inexperience, Federer dominated in rallies and Raonic's service return was inconsistent. On the big points, Federer was dominant in winning three of four possible break points while Raonic was 0-3.

The key now is for Raonic and his coach, Galo Blanco, is to keeping adding to the youngster's game. His service return is better but must still get better, his mobility is sometimes questionable and the serve wavers at key moments.

But its all unfolding as it should for a player the top analysts in the world all seem to believe will soon be a top 10 player. At some point, there will be no more moral victories for Raonic, but that time isn't yet here. Going stride-for-stride, winner-for-winner with the great Federer was a tremendous achievement.

 

 

 

 

Week of The Returning Player

BOCA RATON, Fla.--It appears Sidney Crosby isn't the only elite player poised to make his return to the NHL very soon.

NHL officials today informed the 30 general managers assembled for their annual winter meetings that controversial Alexander Radulov, four years after walking out on his contract with the Nashville Predators, is eligible to re-join the Predators this season, even if its only for the playoffs.

Make no doubt about it; many NHL officials are ticked at the ruling. But under the rules, there's nothing they can do to stop it from happening.

In theory, the addition of Radulov, 25, strengthens the Predators significantly as they make a push for the first Stanley Cup in team history and simultaneously try to convince star defencemen Shea Weber and Ryan Suter to sign new long-term contracts.

Preds GM David Poile added Andrei Kostitsyn and Paul Gaustad at the deadline, and now Radulov, a world class scoring forward who scored 91 goals over the past four seasons with Ufa of the Kontinental Hockey League and played for Russia in the 2010 Winter Olympics, could be back soon.

That said, Poile can't yet confirm that Radulov, the 15th pick of the 2004 entry draft, is necessarily coming back at all.

"Hey, I'd be happy if he was ready to play against San Jose on Thursday," smiled Poile. "But all the hurdles have been cleared. He would be a great weapon to have. I've talked to the agent. Its up to him whether he wants to come back.

"It feels like it should happen."

The debate over Radulov's eligibility was both regulatory and philosophical. First, some teams believed that like any European player trying to jump across the ocean and play in the NHL this late in the season, he would have to clear waivers.

But NHL deputy commissioner Bill Daly told the GMs that since Radulov's entry level contract was still in effect, waivers would not be required. 

Second, there was and is frustration among some GMs that Radulov, back in the summer of 2008, was able to walk out on a binding three-year contract with the Predators after two years, and now will get to return, play a handful of games to "burn" the final year of the $950,000-per-season deal, then try to land a more lucrative contract this summer as a restricted free agent.

"I always thought he could come back. Its our decision," said Poile of Radulov, who was on Nashville's suspended list. "We never even recognized the (KHL) contract. We have the contract.

"If there was going to be a time for him to come back, it should be now. Everything is aligned. (The KHL) playoffs are over. He can burn off the year and get himself to free agency. From the day he left I always thought he was going to come back to the best league in the world.

"I never fully understood why he went there in the first place. I can't agree with his decision to go. We have a binding contract. I still can't believe he was allowed to play. But he was, and we are where we are today."

After Radulov walked out on Nashville, the NHL and KHL agreed they would honor each others contracts in the future. But Radulov was allowed to stay with Ufa.

Nashville sits in third place in the tough Central Division, and fifth in the Western Conference, and the other clubs in the division aren't happy they're able to add such a significant player.

Chicago GM Stan Bowman said teams in the Central simply have to accept Radulov can return if he wants.

"The league has been consistent. Its not like they're changing the rules, so we've got to live with it," he said. "In a perfect world he wouldn't be coming back to a team we're fighting with.

"And does it set a precedent? Can a player just go to Europe and then come back for the playoffs? That's the concern."

St. Louis GM Doug Armstrong said he believed Radulov should have to clear waivers to come back.

"But this wasn't a conspiracy between Nashville and the player. The player walked away from a contract," said Armstrong. "(Radulov) gets his cake and eats it to. He wins on all fronts."

Radulov jumped to the KHL, ostensibly, because the money he could make in the KHL was much greater than what he was earning on an NHL entry level deal. Now, he's been paid by Ufa this season, he can play out his NHL contract with a little as one game played and then hit the RFA market this summer.

Boston GM Peter Chiarelli, who was with the Ottawa Senators at the time when Alexei Yashin sat out the 1999-00 season and then was forced to return and play out the final year of his contract, drew a parallel between the two situations.

"The league has been pretty consistent on this," said Chiarelli. "I'm not going to draw a distinction between (Radulov and Yashin)

"If (Radulov) comes back, he comes back."

The GMs, meanhwhile, have all but formally agreed to institute the hybrid icing rule for next season, subject to the approval of the players union. The league is also expected to demand a tighter standard on line changes "on the fly" and ask the American Hockey League to test out the "ringette" line format, also known as the Bowman line. Under that scheme, a player would have to cross a line at the top of the faceoff circle before he could make a legal pass across the red line to the opposing blue line.