Taylor Less Than Tyler?

The Maple Leafs aren't the only team these days who might watch Tyler Seguin play and wonder about what might have been.

Now, we won't actually know the real answer to whether the Edmonton Oilers were correct in selecting Taylor Hall first overall ahead of Seguin in the Great Draft Debate of 2010 for quite some time, but we do know for sure that better health has followed Seguin so far, he has a Stanley Cup ring and Hall, for the second straight year, will end the season on the injured list.

Let's compare, while all the while keeping in mind that Seguin plays for a much stronger Boston team. That means two things; he doesn't necessarily get the ice time and opportunities that Hall does, but on the other hand, being surrounded with better players can allow for a steeper improvement curve.

For starters, Seguin has played 149 games in his first two seasons compared to 126 for Hall. Seguin had 11 goals in spot duty last year, while this year in a full-time role he has 26 goals, 35 assists and a superb plus-28 rating, again at least partly a function of being on a sturdy Bruins squad. Hall had 22 goals in his rookie season, and this year has 27 goals and 26 assists to go with a minus-three rating.

Over two seasons, Seguin's points-per-game ratio is .56, while Hall's is much better at .75 points per game. Just five of Seguin's 37 career goals have come on the powerplay, and six have been game-winners; 21 of Hall's 49 goals have been scored on the power play with 11 game winners.

Statisically, then, Hall is still ahead, although again, its worth keeping in mind he has received many more opportunities in goal-scoring situations on a free-wheeling Edmonton team, while Seguin had to serve an apprenticeship last year and is somewhat confined by Claude Julien's tight-checking system.

Seguin already has 13 games of Stanley Cup playoff experience, while its unclear when Hall will get to play his first post-season match, a far cry from his days with the wildly successful Windsor Spitfires of the OHL.

That brings us to the health issue, and there seems to be a little bit of Wendel Clark Syndrome to Hall in terms of his sometimes kamikaze-style of play, the number of games he has already missed to injury and the wide variety of problems he has encountered.

Hall has been shut down this season with two problems. He hasn't played since March 16 because of a concussion, and a torn shoulder labrum that has been a problem since junior hockey will now require surgery which will sideline him for 5-6 months. Hall apparently has been playing with a badly damaged shoulder this season since Nov. 26.

Two teammates, Shawn Horcoff and Ales Hemsky, have had the same shoulder surgery that is now pending for Hall, and its an open question as to whether either Horcoff or Hemsky has been the same player since.

Earlier this season, Hall also suffered a gruesome, 30-stitch facial laceration during warmup when he was accidentally kicked in the head by a teammate. He wasn't wearing a helmet.

Last season, in early March he suffered a season ending high ankle sprain in a fight with Derek Dorsett of the Columbus Blue Jackets. He was third in NHL rookie scoring at the time.

With this year's No. 1 pick, Ryan Nugent-Hopkins, having also had to deal with injuries, its an intriguing question as to whether saddling 18-year-olds with heavy workloads in an NHL that includes, by the league's own stats, much more hitting and physical play than before the lockout exposes them to a greater injury risk before their teenage bodies are ready for it.

In the case of Hall and RNH, they've both had to play a lot as 18-year-olds, and usually against the best defenders of the opposing team. Last season, Hall averaged 18:12 of ice time per game, about the same as this season (18:13).

With Seguin, he was 17th on the Bruins in total ice time with 12:12 last year, and while increased to 16:58 this season, its still less than Hall has averaged either season.

Both are breathtaking young talents, and only Jeff Skinner, at this point, is arguably a better player out of the '10 draft class. Interestingly, Skinner has also been battered by injury issues this season in his second NHL campaign.

So the Taylor vs. Tyler debate will continue to be an interesting one, unlikely to be resolved in any meaningful way for another, oh, 15 years. You can argue this one about six different ways. But if Hall can't stay healthier than he's been able to so far in two NHL seasons, it doesn't bode well.

 

 

 

 

Comments

[Jesstet]

I would take seguin all day..to bad burke didnt trade kabs and the first round pick (kadri) for kessell when he had the chance!! We could have tyler and douggie in our system

[Hockey man]

You know, all this talk is trivial if the owners, league, and officials were serious about cracking down on these illegal hits. Back in the Gretzky era, enforcers were the deterrent....now, are $5000 fines and 5 game suspensions doing any good??? Not to mention the lack-lustre job the officials are doing with handling these hits....start using replays!!! And you wonder why the league doesn't have more viewers than it does? Other team sports are very serious about injuries, intentional or not, why isn't the NHL?

[Paul]

Really a pointless column. Your argument is what? With hindsight Seguin has stayed more healthy so the Oilers should have picked him? Every stat you put up except the +/- favors Taylor. The one stat that is more team oriented. I think the Oilers did just fine - as did the Bruins. It's the Leafs that lost here. Either Taylor or Tyler will be a better player than Kessel. Sure he can score but when the going gets tough, Kessel disappears. Can't say I see that in either Taylor or Tyler.

[Doug Facey]

Let me state this for you in no uncertain terms Mr. Cox:

Hall was the right choice for the Oilers and he's done everything asked of him since being drafted. He is a goal scorer, a competitor, a future captain, a future Olympian and he has a huge desire to be successful. These factors will allow Hall to recover fully and lead the Oilers (and Team Canada) to glory.

I have nothing against Tyler Seguin. He is an amazing young player who looks like he will have a great career. It's only by stupidity of the Maple Leafs that he is in the situation he's in. Like any smart young player Segiun has taken advantage of the situation and he's been allowed to develop at his own pace.

Both of these players will have great NHL careers and do their share of winning. However Hall's intangibles and desire to be the best are what separates the two. When the Oilers mature in another couple of seasons you will see how great a player Taylor Hall can and will be. The closest thing to Mark Messier the NHL has seen in a long time.

Go Oil!

[Andrew]

Great point about kids playing with men. There's no more clear sign of a desperate management team than one that rushes high draft picks to play in the big leagues right away. Really, what difference would it have made to have Hall and Ryan Nugent-Hopkins stay in the minors an extra year? It's not as if they helped Edmonton make a playoff push. I worry about Henrique too...Landeskog might be an exception for no other reason than his size. I think the Leafs made the same mistake in rushing Schenn, although I'm encouraged that they're giving Kadri more time in the AHL.

[Glen]

Why does everyone always knock the Phil Kessel trade? Let's take the comparison one more step. When Brian Burke traded for Phil Kessel he had just finished his 3rd season with the Bruins, playing 70 games with 36 goals, 24 assists for 60 points and a +23 rating. He was 21 years old. His numbers are vertually identical to Tyler Seguin's numbers (TS 75 games, 26 goals, 34 assists, 60 points, +28 this year, age 20). But the problem now is that Kessel plays with the Toronto Maple Leafs and not the powerhouse Boston Bruins. Tyler might be a completely different player wearing the blue & white, and losing night after night.
And I am a Leafs fan for 30+ years.

[Racki]

Tyler Seguin has a cup ring because one of the worst teams in the NHL thought it better to try and win now (and fail) and mortgage he and whomever else they could have drafted. Seguin had as much to do with the Bruins winning the Cup as he did with them getting there... i.e. sweet (expletive) all.

I think you are right that Hall's Kamikazee style of play is dangerous. He is starting to learn when to keep his head up. I'm not so sure the Sarich hit that concussed him was one that most players in the NHL would have avoided. He picked up the puck along the boards and had little time to react before Sarich was breathing down on him. I think even if he didn't go down before the hit, it was still going to be ugly.

The high ankle sprain, well that was silly on Hall's part, fighting someone tougher than him. But that's what makes Hall such a great player.. the heart he brings. As far as the shoulder surgery, this is something that he's had for 4 years now. Ales Hemsky has gone through this same surgery twice now, and the first time seems to have been very successful. The second time is up in the air still. He started out very slow this year, complaining of being tentative about the shoulder. But in the last stages of this season, he's been a LOT better. Horcoff is a much older player and battles with that shoulder in faceoffs more than most players in the league do with 2 good shoulders.

Several other players have gone through this sort of surgery without any apparent drop in talent or recurring problem (Kyle Okposo, Alex Burrows, Matt Beleskey, Scott Nichol, Toni Lydman, Mike Richards, Maxime Talbot, Alex Tanguay to name some). I have a feeling that in 6 months, he will be better than ever. He's been playing 2 years in the NHL with this problem! If he plays that well with a bum shoulder, I can't imagine how he'll be when that thing is robotic.

Lastly, I don't think there was a wrong choice in Tyler vs. Taylor, other than not choosing either (looking at you, Toronto). Oilers fans know that Hall is a superb player that makes his team and linemates better, gives his all every night and sets an extremely high standard for himself and his teammates. He's a leader, and a great player. He hasn't had injury issues because he coasts around out there. It's not just because he keeps his head down too much (which, granted, he does). It has a lot to do with him being a gritty, determined player that will do anything to win. I'm not sure the same can be said of Seguin or not, because I don't watch him enough. But I know what the Oilers have in Hall, and it is excellent.

[Norm M.]

Mr. Cox, you answered your own rhetorical question when you said Seguin has had the benefit of playing with a 'sturdy' line/ team. For most of his goal hi-lights, he appears cruising the zone while his tough winger and checking centre get their noses dirty. If he spends his whole career doing that, what's the difference between him and Kessel? The real test will be when his linemates go down from an injury for a while and he has to consistently do some of the dirty work. No cruising then.

[SSDD]

Mute point really, the wisdom of the Kessel trade, it's done & Burke added a winger that has scored at least 30 goals in each season for the Leafs. Many call him soft & point out that Sequin is not soft. Sequin also plays on a team that's a hell of a lot tougher & talented than the Leafs. The argument regarding Hamilton is a non starter. Yes he has lots of potential but has yet to play an NHL game so is still an unknown. My biggest complaint about this trade is that, like the Connolly signing, Burke showed little patience. Perhaps had he waited it out, Kessel was hurt at the time, the price may have come down. My recollection is, there may have been a couple of other teams with a bit of interest, but I may be in error there. Connolly seems like a desperation move that cost more money than the return. The main point of the article, Hall vs Sequin, I'm certain that had Burke not traded for Kessel & had the draft pick there would be a large segment of the so called Leaf Nation severely critical of him regardless of which one he picked first.

[guelphdad]

So let's say the Leafs didn't trade for Kessel. Are there guarantees that they would finish in the exact same spot and been able to draft Seguin? People assume that things would unfold the exact same way. What if they went on a run near the end of the season and ended up picking 6th or 8th?