The Spin

June 26, 2009

Picking At No. 7

MONTREAL

With no deals to be had, the Maple Leafs are set to pick seventh tonight in the NHL draft.

The scenarios for that pick go like this.

If Spokane defenceman Jared Cowan is available - Phoenix is expected to grab him first - the Leafs will grab him.

If not,GM Brian Burke is expected to go for either London forward Nazem Kadri or Swedish defenceman Oliver Ekman-Larsson. Larsson is a high-end offensive blueliner who would be the obvious successor to Tomas Kaberle, now a certainly to be traded this summer after he was nearly dealt to Boston today.

In the case of Kaberle, the Leafs will wait to see the Jay Bouwmeester sweepstakes play out, then try to attract offers from the teams that don't land the rangy blueliner.

June 26, 2009 at 06:49 PM in NHL Draft | Permalink | Comments (0)

Multiple Moves

MONTREAL

No deal.
In fact, no deal of any kind for Brian Burke, it appears, with one hour to go until his first draft as GM of the Maple Leafs.
A deal with Boston that would have brought Phil Kessel and a pick to the Leafs is apparently off, and so are any of the deals that would have moved the Leafs up in the draft.
So much talk, but only frustration, apparently, for Burke and the Leafs. As it stands, the Leafs will pick seventh overall, and could be looking at either OHL speedster Nazem Kadri or Swedish blueliner Oliver Ekman-Larson.

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With less than three hours to go before the 2009 entry draft, the Maple Leafs are still working on separate deals that could see the club acquire wingers Phil Kessel and Ryane Clowe.
The Clowe deal with San Jose may be in jeopardy, with the Sharks possibly working on another trade that would see goalie Evgeny Nabokov moved.
Boston, meanwhile, is expected to either formalize an offer within the hour for defenceman Tomas Kaberle that would see Kessel and a draft pick go to the Leafs, or that deal will fall apart.
Leaf GM Brian Burke would be just as happy to wait until after July 1st to see what offers materialize for Kaberle after free agent Jay Bouwmeester is snapped up.
As of now, the Leafs do not have a trade in place that would see him move up from the No. 7 draft slot.

The Maple Leafs are seriously looking at a Tomas Kaberle-for-Phil Kessel deal.

But it would not involve the Leafs also sending the No. 7 pick in tonight's entry draft to the Bruins.

TSN broke the story this morning that the Bruins had offered the 21-year-old Kessel to the Leafs to land Kaberle, which was bang-on. But the TSN report also included the seventh pick, and multiple sources say this morning the Leafs would not give up the No. 7 selection to make that deal happen. In fact, the Leafs might be the team getting the extra pick in such a transaction.

Burke, the boss of the U.S. Olympic team, clearly loves Kessel, who scored 36 goals in only 70 games this season and produced another six goals in 11 playoff games after being scratched for three of seven post-season matches the year before.

The University of Minnesota product would immediately become the Leafs' top winger, although he is a restricted free agent this summer and is the type of player who might be vulnerable to an offer sheet.

But consider this.

Kessel, if acquired, would give the Leafs much more useful ammunition to move up in the draft, possibly to the No. 3 slot (Colorado) or No. 4 (Atlanta). That would get the Leafs into the territory of Matt Duchene/Evander Kane/Brayden Schenn, unless John Tavares still happens to be available after the top two picks.

June 26, 2009 at 10:46 AM in NHL Draft | Permalink | Comments (25)

June 25, 2009

Tricky Choices, But Good Ones

What a fascinating choice, presuming it actually exists.

On one hand, you have John Tavares.

On the other, you have two Schenns.

Which would you prefer, Leaf Nation?

There are, quite obviously, many scenarios that exist in between for Brian Burke and the Maple Leafs, but these seem to be the two that would most define the club going forward.

THE CANADIAN PRESS

Luke Schenn is a developing stud on the back end.

If Burke were willing to sacrifice Luke Schenn, there’s the belief he could get the No. 2 pick in tomorrow’s NHL entry draft and quite possibly the right to draft Tavares, presuming the New York Islanders play along.

(For those who keep suggesting the Isles should for some reason or another tell the hockey world who they’ll be taking first overall, this is why they should not. If the Leafs, for example, were able to get to No. 2, wouldn’t it be worth it for Isles GM Garth Snow to hold up Toronto for a little something extra if he were willing to take Victor Hedman at No. 1? Of course it would.)

So while the deal would also involve the Leafs’ pick, No. 7, and maybe something else as well, the bottom line would be Schenn for Tavares.

The likelihood is that Tavares will be the superior NHL player, certainly in terms of offensive output.

Burke wouldn’t necessarily disagree. What he would argue, however, is that Schenn has qualities of leadership and defensive presence that every good team needs, and that sacrificing one top prospect for another just puts the club back on the “hamster on a wheel” process, always making one step back to make one forward and never making actual progress.

He understands the specific short- and long-term implications. As part of the process of landing the Sedins for Vancouver, he gave up Bryan McCabe, who at that time was a top-notch, hard-nosed blueline prospect and, to be fair, developed into a quality NHL defenceman with significant offensive ability.

The Leafs gave up first, second and third round picks for the right to draft Schenn last year, so they’ve already made a significant investment. Even though he didn’t make that deal – and I doubt would have made that deal – that’s where Burke’s “hamster on a wheel” philosophy comes in.

Will the Leafs one day regret not moving Schenn to get Tavares? Maybe.

Then again, there’s also a sweet deal here for Tampa. If I’m Brian Lawton, I would surely look seriously at a deal that gave me Tomas Kaberle or Pavel Kubina, Mikhail Grabovski and the Leafs No. 7 pick (potentially defenceman Jared Cowan, which is what Tampa needs).

Most important, however, Lawton should insist on getting the Leafs’ No. 1 pick next year. That could be a lottery pick and possibly even a top three selection, and that would be the kind of Sam Pollock-like move that could really set up the Lightning down the road.

But let’s say Burke won’t deal Schenn and Tampa’s not interested in a deal with Toronto.

Then position B for Burke has to be the double Schenn.

There are those who see Brayden Schenn as a Mike Richards-type player, and this would be an acquisition that would surely grab the attention of the city after last season in which Burke was personally offended by the way many simply yawned as the Leafs once again missed post-season play.

Let’s face it. Burke didn’t come to Toronto to be just another sports executive in town. He’s wants to be the Big Kahuna, and, let’s face it, Bryan Colangelo and J.P. Ricciardi haven’t set the bar particularly high.

So, in the name of scientific research, I asked my 10-year-old son, a true Leaf fan, whether he’d rather have the Leafs pick up Tavares or end up with two Schenns.

“Is Braydon Schenn as good as Luke Schenn?” was his first question. Maybe, was the answer.

Hmmm. “Then I would trade for John Tavares,” was his analysis.

Well, he and I will have to disagree. As I’ve been saying for some time, this shapes up as a draft so deep that the ideal result for the Leafs would not be to end up with Hedman or Tavares, but to get two top prospects.

They need numbers as well as talent. So if they could get Brayden Schenn and then Zack Kassian somewhere between No. 10 and No. 20, that would be a good day. Or if they could land Dmitry Kulikov – Burke has already said he’s a Canadian in a Russian’s body – and Scott Glennie, that would be progress.

So we’ll see. The sense is this is going right down to the wire, and Burke will be going hard tonight and right up to draft time tomorrow night. For the second straight draft, the Leafs are a team trying to make something big happen.

June 25, 2009 at 08:59 AM in NHL Draft | Permalink | Comments (29)

June 02, 2009

Draft Chatter Heating Up

COLIN MCCONNELL/TORONTO STAR

It appears that all other prospects are looking up at Victor Hedman as the top pick in this year's NHL draft.

With the entry draft just 25 days away, and with GMs from all NHL clubs meeting in Pittsburgh today during the Stanley Cup final, there's all kinds of rumour and speculation going around about the intentions of various teams.

Most clubs have now decided there is, like last year, a Big Five of prospects that includes centre John Tavares, defenceman Victor Hedman, winger Evander Kane, centre Matt Duchene and forward Braydon Schenn, brother of Leaf defenceman Luke Schenn. All five prospects are also in Pittsburgh today for media interviews.

The Islanders own the first pick and are now apparently leaning towards Hedman. After that, the order of players is up in the air, as are the intentions of teams holding the top picks.

The Leafs and GM Brian Burke hold the seventh pick, and if the draft were today would like end up looking at either 6-foot-5 defenceman Jared Cowan, who missed most of last season with a knee injury, or talented winger Nazem Kadri in the No. 7 slot. Forwards like Sweden's Magnus Svensson-Pajaarvi and University of Minnesota forward Jordan Schroeder are more remote possiblities.

But Burke has said repeatedly he wants to move up and has already talked to the teams holding the top five picks. After Long Island, the order is Tampa Bay, Colorado, Atlanta and Los Angeles.

Colorado is a wild card at this point because the Avalanche don't even have a GM after failing to come to terms with Patrick Roy to be GM/head coach. Players the talent-thin Leafs are being asked about by other clubs likely include Mikhail Grabovski, newly signed prospect Viktor Stahlberg and mobile defenceman Anton Stralman, who had a strong world championships tournament for Sweden and attracted offers at the trade deadline. Luke Schenn, at this point, is apparently still an untouchable in Burke's eyes, but the Leafs might have to think about including next year's first round pick in a package to move up this year.

While there have been suggestions some teams are concerned about the quality of Tavares' skating, the Leafs have no such concerns and will likely increase their efforts to do a deal with Tampa. Knowing Burke's past history of draft dealings, he could well try to move up in stages, first acquiring the third, fourth or fifth pick, then trying to use that to get to No. 1 or 2. A little known fact is that when Burke drafted the Sedin twins for Vancouver, he was actually trying to position himself to draft Patrik Stefan as well, who went first overall.

At the same time, the Leafs are furiously trying to outbid Dallas and San Jose for the services of Swedish goaltender Jonas Gustavsson, with Colorado apparently no longer a consideration for "The Monster." The bidding for Gustavsson has been on hold after the death of his mother but is expected to pick up in the next 10 days when he comes to North America for interviews.

Right now, Burke's priorities are signing Gustavsson, moving up to get one of the Big Five and adding one or more enforcer-type players through the draft or free agency. If Burke has his way, the Leaf depth chart will look very different by this time next month.

Burke also met with members of his Team USA staff for next year's Olympic Games last night in Pittsburgh.

June 02, 2009 at 12:16 PM in NHL Draft | Permalink | Comments (20)

April 14, 2009

Status Quo. . .For Now

We can only hope the actual NHL entry draft is more exciting or dramatic than this year's draft lottery, which turned out to be a colossal bore and waste of pretty much everybody's time. Surely the NHL will grasp the rather obvious notion that the time has come to spice this process up a bit even if it means throwing the names of all 14 non-playoff teams in a hat and picking out the draft order one by one.

Tuesday night, the lottery changed absolutely nothing from the way the NHL standings read at the end of the regular season on Sunday, which meant the New York Islanders, who finished the season with the worst record, now officially own the No. 1 pick in the June draft, slated to be held in Montreal. It's the third straight year the league's worst team held on to the No. 1 selection.

If you are one of those conspiratorial types who believed the Isles were playing for John Tavares all along, well, you've been proven right. The much-heralded Tavares, the pride of Oakville, Ont., could be the second straight GTA product to go first overall if the Isles hold the pick.

The Isles will be followed in order by Tampa Bay, Colorado, Atlanta, Los Angeles, Phoenix and then, of course, the Maple Leafs, who neither won the lottery nor budged from the No. 7 slot, a position they "earned" with an 81-point season that put them in 24th position at the end of the regular season and out of the playoffs for a fourth straight year.

Leafs GM Brian Burke promises to trade up and possibly get a shot at Tavares, and maybe he'll be able to do that. Back in 1993, as GM of the Hartford Whalers, he started with the sixth overall pick and traded up to the No. 2 pick, selecting defenceman Chris Pronger.

Last year, interim Leaf GM Cliff Fletcher traded the No. 7 pick, a second-round selection and third-round pick to the Islanders in exchange for the fifth overall pick, which they used to select Kelowna blueliner Luke Schenn.

To get to No. 1 this year, however, would cost Burke and the Leafs a bigger package of picks and players, a tough chore to say the least.

For now, they have the No. 7 pick. So whom might they take if they don't budge from that spot?

Well, odds are four players —- Tavares, Swedish defenceman Viktor Hedman, Vancouver forward Evander Kane and Brampton centre Matt Duchene —- will be gone by the time the Leafs pick.

So that leaves us probably with five candidates to be the Leaf top pick if nothing changes between today and draft day.

The top name on that list has to be Brayden Schenn, brother of Luke, a scoring centre with the WHL Brandon Wheat Kings. The younger Schenn has undeniable talents, but the Leafs in making this decision would have to be careful not to assume that all the characteristics that Luke Schenn brought to the club would necessarily again follow with his brother.

Big Kelowna blueliner Jared Cowan would be another candidate, and don't believe for a second the Leafs will be looking for a forward just because they took a defenceman last year in the first round. The complication is that Cowan missed much of the year with a knee injury. That, however, didn't stop Burke from signing University of Denver forward Tyler Bozak two weeks ago.

The third CHLer on the Leaf list might be abrasive Peterbrough Petes winger Zack Kassian, who might be the perfect antidote to the Leafs' lack of size and grit. Some argue Kassian might not have the skill to go this high, but he excels in the aggressiveness and truculence categories which Burke covets.

The other two prime candidates for the Leaf pick might then be two hyphenated Swedes, forward Magnus Paarjarvi-Svensson and defenceman Oliver Ekman-Larsson. Paarjarvi-Svensson is a speedy winger who can take the puck to the net and is projected as a top six forward in the NHL, an area of desperate need for the Leafs.

Ekman-Larsson, meanwhile, is a smooth puckmover who might theoretically be the successor to Tomas Kaberle on the Toronto blueline. He's nowhere near as big as Hedman, but he's been slowly but surely working his way up the scouting charts as the season has moved along.

If the Leafs stay at No. 7, it's unlikely the player they get will change the face of the team or even play in the NHL next season. He would be a quality building block, and the Leafs are at the stage they need a bunch of those to become competitive again.

Two years ago, Columbus took forward Jakub Voracek seventh overall, and Voracek will be a key contributor starting Thursday night as the Blue Jackets look to upset the defending champion Detroit Red Wings in the first round of the Stanley Cup playoffs.

In 2006, the Isles took winger Kyle Okposo at No. 7, and he's showing great promise. The 10 seventh overall picks before that were F Jack Skille (Chicago), F Rostislav Olesz (Florida), D Ryan Suter (Nashville), RW Joffrey Lupul (Anaheim), D Mike Komisarek (Montreal), D Lars Jonsson (Boston), F Kris Beech (Washington), C Manny Malhotra (N.Y. Rangers), D Paul Mara (Tampa Bay) and LW Erik Rasmussen (Buffalo).

The best No. 7 selection ever? Probably Bill Barber ('72, Flyers), with Bernie Federko ('76, Blues) a close second.

The worst? Probably Greg Vaydik of the Medicine Hat Tigers, drafted by Chicago in 1975, with Dan Woodley ('86, Canucks) a close second.

So the Leafs can only dream of No. 7 for now. But it's a long time until draft day.