Predictions: Day 17

 

Germany vs. England, 10 a.m. ET

For once, everyone wants to mention the war. The one in ’66. All sorts of hackneyed history being dredged up over this one, but it’s difficult to overestimate the excitement here over this one. England stumbled into the second round, after seeming to find a hint of their form in their final match against Slovenia. Germany have looked vulnerable as well. Plus, they may be without midfield engine Bastian Schweinsteiger, who’s nursing an injury. You just know this one is coming down to penalties.

Prediction: England 2, Germany 2 (England win on penalties)

Argentina vs. Mexico, 2:30 p.m. ET

History, recent and ancient, are both on Argentina’s side today. The blue-and-whites have only lost 2 of 20 encounters with Mexico. Their last victory came at this same point four years ago. Mexico have looked uneven here – imperious in victory over France, overmatched by Uruguay. Meanwhile, Argentina have swept aside all they’ve met. The up-to-this-point player of the tournament, Lionel Messi, looks poised for a goal-scoring breakthrough. If that happens, Mexico are sunk.

Prediction: Argentina 3, Mexico 1

- C.K.; pic by C.Y.

The Temple of Jabulani

JOHANNESBURG

At the World Cup, you try to get away from the zombie walk of endless matches by breaking up the routine. So this morning we went off to Sandton Convention Centre, a 15-minute drive turned to half an hour by the traffic, and the traffic-dodgers, lanes and traffic cones being little more than an inconvenience here.

It was “Penalty day” at World Football House, adidas' central HQ that might as well be called the Temple of Jabulani, with one wall racked with balls - balls attached via wires, in case anyone had a feeling to pinch one. On the wall are some truly hideous renderings of the tournament's key players. And players. Hey, former TFC almost-charter member Andrew Boyens was up there as the New Zealand rep. The Diego Forlan looked like Richard Simmons.

The press conference that brought us there was attended by a number of press shoving their way in – standard operating procedure at the World Cup media centres when the waitlist tickets are divvied out – then heading up to the podium beforehand to have their friends take pictures of them with the Golden Glove and the Jabulani.

After a short power-point demo - a Chinese journo in front of me scribbling down all the stats flashing by on the screen - it was show time for an “all-important” press conference, according to the emcee. Then they came on – Petr Cech of Chelsea/Czech Republic, former Argentina 'keeper Sergio Goycochea, and former Germany hothead/divisive egomaniac Oliver Kahn.

Most of the room clapped them on in their three-stripes kit. They clapped when Gocochea upbraided journalists - them, in other words - for referring to the penalty shootout as a lottery or Russian roulette. “There is only good luck and bad luck,” he said, and Chinese guy scribbed some more and nodded his head. Good luck, bad luck - isn't that was a lottery is?

It was pretty much a dud, in other words, and with the laboriousness of it all extended by the need to translate everything, we cut out early. We didn't even wait for the Khan to go off. He looked like he'd just stumbled out of bed and could use a shave and a couple Advil, actually. Just like me, actually.

Der Kaiser on England: "Tired"

JOHANNESBURG

On a quiet day here at Casa Canada - a Hoser Heaven oasis at the World Cup - I'll leave it to Franz Beckenbauer in today's Bild (English version here) to stoke the fire ahead of Sunday's epic England-Germany renewal, a matchup created by England "stupidly" finishing second in their group, he says: 

The Englishmen looked tired. There’s a reason for it: Premier League stars play far more games than their Bundesliga counterparts, including two national cup competitions. Hence they’re often burned out at World Cups or European Championships.
That’s the impression I had after watching England's first two appearances in South Africa (1-1 against USA, 0-0 against Algeria).
Our players, on the other hand, are in better physical condition.

To me, watching in the Soccer City press centre ahead of Ghana-Germany, England looked better against Slovenia, but they really could have been more clinical - Beckenbauer is right, Rooney looks way out of sorts - and they will need to go much better Sunday against a German side that will get Miroslav Klose back. Klose's replacement last night, the Brazilian-born Cacau, didn't look particularly effective against Ghana. I can see Klose, Ozil, Mueller and the like terrorizing the English defence, but Germany's youth makes them unpredictable and their backline isn't exactly airtight. And then there's that secret weapon unveiled by Capello: Free beer.

With Calamity Kelly headed out early for Italy-Slovakia at Ellis Park, spent the morning hanging around Casa Canada with Zurich, the house grasshopper. Good company. Doesn't say much, very laid-back and easygoing, but watch out. He's got bigger hops than Jamario Moon.   

Cape Town scene

CAPE TOWN

UPDATE, 7:03 p.m. here:

The team sheets won't be out for an hour or so, but word has filtered out around the press centre of England's team, and it's pretty much as expected with three changes from Saturday's opener against the U.S. - Jamie Carragher in for injured Ledley King, Gareth Barry returning to fitness and replacing James Milner, and David James in goal. Here's how it's going to look:

James; Johnson, Carragher, Terry, Ashley Cole; Lampard, Barry; Lennon, Rooney, Gerrard; Heskey.

UPDATE, sheets are out, and the lineup has been confirmed.

The waterfront here is teeming with supporters this afternoon. A couple shots to get you in the mood for England-Algeria:

Algerian supporter phones home, while off in the distance the St George Cross flags are set up.

England's here. Let's get it on. 

Predictions: Day 8

GROUP D

Germany (1-0-0 W-D-L) vs. Serbia (0-0-1)

At Port Elizabeth, 7:30 a.m.
TV: CBC, TLN (Spanish)
Weather: 15C, sunny
The Game: Regular readers will know we don’t get many of these right, but let’s toot our own vuvu when we do — we warned you about Germany. Mesut Ozil, Sami Khedira and the rest of the Mannschaft’s kids warned the whole tournament. But that was Oz and this is now. Serbs’ long-ball game was poor in their loss to Ghana on a late penalty that earned Aleksander Lukovic a suspension for this. They need to show better discipline here. Positive for them: They didn’t give up more than one goal in all 12 of their qualifiers, including seven clean sheets.

Prediction: Germany 1, Serbia 0

GROUP C

Slovenia (1-0-0) vs. United States (0-1-0)
At Johannesburg, 10 a.m.
TV: CBC, TLN (Spanish)
Weather: 11C, sunny
The Game: Slovenia (pop. 2 million) can book a ticket in the second round with a win here, but they’ll likely play it as cagey as they did in beating Algeria in their opener. U.S. (pop. 307 million) really needs more than a draw, and will have to be patient against Slovenia’s tight defence.

Prediction: Slovenia 0, United States 1

GROUP C

England (0-1-0) vs. Algeria (0-0-1)
At Cape Town, 2:30 p.m.
TV: CBC, TLN (Spanish)
Weather: 13C, partly cloudy
The Game: England heavy favourites here, despite their problems dealing with the U.S.’s speed in their opener. They’ve got the obvious edge in class and Gareth Barry’s return should free up Frank Lampard and Steven Gerrard going forward, but there’s a great deal of pressure for a win. Algeria has goalkeeper worries with Fawzi Chaouchi on the limp.
Prediction: England 2, Algeria 0
Chris Young

Live: England training

CAPE TOWN

UPDATE: Press conference with Capello and Gerrard over. No real news. On the goalkeeper situation, Capello said he knows who will start, but is not saying publicly and won't tell his choice until Friday. Reports say he'll stay with Robert Green.

Some pics from tonight's England training session at Green Point Stadium. For what it's worth. David James appeared to be getting the majority of work in goal.

Glen Johnson, Jamie Carragher, Michael Carrick, John Terry and that's Wayne Rooney in front leading the kick-line. Somewhere off to the side, Stevie Gerrard is banging on the window of the DJ, calling for Phil Collins.

David James took the bulk of work in goal. Capello's not saying yet, but it seems a certainty James will get the start against Algeria.

Fabio Capello, looking pretty pensive. He does a good pensive.

Wow. You could probably come up with your own caption here. 

On top of Table Mountain

CAPE TOWN

England is doing a press conference later tonight here, so it was a morning for playing tourist. Sunny, 17C - perfect for the Table Mountain cable car. Some images:

The view from 1,067 metres up. Green Point Stadium is in the middle, near the shore, and off to the left and out to sea is Robben Island.

A dassie lounges in the sun. A bunch of the badgers sat on a rocky outcrop directly below the Twelve Apostles Terraces. "Rock rabbits" was how the Aussie from Brisbane described them. 

After a 70-minute wait in line, an Algerian family waves the flag ahead of Friday's game vs. England.  

A couple of lads have come all the way from Sheffield for this. Even slightly out of focus, that's impressive.

It gets worse every time you see it

File that amongst the worst goalkeeping bloopers of all time. That wasn't a howler. It was a HOOOOOOWL-er.

With England well in charge of this game, Clint Dempsey launched a more than hopeful shot from about 25 yards from goal. Robert Green, the English keeper, saw it all the way. He got down on his knees like an outfielder waiting for a single to roll toward him.

And then it just flipped over his outstretched hands and into the net. 

England's fans - who are outnumbered by the Americans on hand - went suddenly silent. Then it's all U-S-A! U-S-A! 

Score knotted at 1-1. To make matters worse, U.S. goalkeeper Tim Howard is having a wonderful game. And he stayed in after Emile Heskey looked to have remodelled his elbow during a studs-first slide.

Whatever the result, Green is going to be lashed for this, and for years. He's been famous for his blunders. Now he's just famous.

TV just showed a shot of David Beckham on the English bench immediately after the goal. He looked as if he was trying to bore into Robert Green's head with his eyes and rip out his spine.

We've had our first great talking point of the tournament. Or, at least, one doesn't involve vuvuzelas. Which are still here, but not quite as annoying.

C.K.

P.S. - The scoreboards don't work. How perfect is that?

Rustic Rustenberg - England vs. U.S.A.

RUSTENBERG - I'm standing here in the shadow of Royal Bafokeng Stadium, awaiting today's showdown between ...

Well, that's all I got. And I copied from a radio guy who was practising his introduction outside the bathroom. But then he wandered away, so I'm left with nothing.

The stadium is impressive - rising out of the lonely veld (don't steal that, American radio guy, I'll be listening). Got a chance to take a look at the countryside for the first time today on our three hour drive out west. 

Wisely, we hired a local driver. Otherwise, the car would've been swallowed by one of the truly horriffic potholes. Or we could have hit one of the many pedestrians walking - walking, not running, not jogging - across the highways between cars. Or ended up sideswiping the careening mini pick-up that had a pair of matresses strapped to the cab - with two guys lying on top and hanging on for dear life. This is not a driver's paradise.

To get to the stadium, you have drive through the centre of Rustenberg proper. Very few English and/or American fans on hand, it would seem. And those who are here seem unusually subdued. Too many scary stories heard, one imagines. 

Security - which has been a smiling shambles - the usual. Four chattering young women rummaging through your bag to little effect, and then passing you through. At the opener, they were putting people through metal detectors and passing bags around the metal detectors. Curious.

The whole atmosphere is jarring after yesterday's euphoric opener - a little bit downbeat.

Sun going down as I write. Temperature dropping quickly as well. South Africa generally confounds the seasonal dresser - absolutely frigid in the mornings and evenings, and very hot during the day.

For now, enjoying watching Leo Messi run wild against Nigeria - though without a final product to show for it yet. Who's doubting Argentina now?

C.K.

Update @ 6:45 p.m. local time: The Globe's Steve Brunt just arrived at the press centre after a five-hour road odyssey from Jo'burg. He got taken in through the main toll road - and the toll booths were completely swamped. A 10 km back-up on the highway. Thank God for our man beyond the wheel, Fana.

"And not a cop in sight," Brunt says.

It's going to be fun getting out of here.

Update: Drogba, Ferdinand out of World Cup

Every World Cup finals has some notable injury hits, but these two are massive: Team officials say Didier Drogba broke his arm this morning in the Ivory Coast's final tuner against Japan. Drogba took a high boot in the arm from a Japanese defender in a collision at midfield, and although nothing's official it surely doesn't look good (video below).

(UPDATE: From the Associated Press: Ivory Coast's Kolo Toure says teammate Didier Drogba will miss World Cup due to broken arm.

(SECOND UPDATE: Now Drogba confirms he's out. From AP: "The World Cup is finished." And from the looks of that video below, Tulio Tanaka has a lot to answer for.)

And in the England camp, fragile central defender Rio Ferdinand has been ruled out of the finals. On a team whose defensive centre looked a little light in terms of reinforcements, this is a big blow. Michael Dawson, one of Fabio Capello's last cuts, is heading to Africa, according to the reports out of the England camp.

So, for this first Mundial in Africa, two of the most influential players from the home continent, both of them teammates at English champion Chelsea, will miss out: Michael Essien with Ghana, and now Drogba. Both teams were contenders for a good long run with them - now, Ghana will be all out to get out of a tough Group D, and as for Cote d'Ivoire, they were drawn into the designated Group of Death against Brazil, Portugal and outsiders North Korea. As for the tournament, two bright lights have dimmed and it's no understatement to say the entire affair has taken a hit.

The Ivory Coast remains the deepest team from Africa, but this is a similar situation to Ghana's - like Essien, Drogba is the beating heart of his team. He's going to be harder to replace than just another star player.

As for England, Ledley King and Matthew Upson move up the depth chart, Dawson flies in and thus it goes from a mild gulp to a really hard swallow. 

How does this change up the groups? You tell us. Comments are open, and here's some video, though not sure how long it'll stay up there: