Behind the 'snowpocalypse' of 2010

The record snowfall that buried the U.S. East Coast and froze Florida exploded out of two drastically unusual weather factors that just prove nature likes surprises, a leading climate scientist says.

Pure science partly spurred Richard Seager, senior research scientist at Lamont-Doherty Earth Observatory of Columbia University, but also scientific annoyance at people who used the bitter winter as a sign an indication there was no global warming or that sloppy meteorologists overlooked it.

“The obvious thing is that there was an El Nino,” he said, referring to the abnormal warming of the ocean’s surface in the eastern tropical Pacific.

That phenomenon smacked into the worst North Atlantic Oscillation since 1822, which brought bitter cold and more precipitation to the Atlantic rim. From Boston to Washington, D.C., the precipitation came as snow, rather than rain – more than 180 centimetres of it.

On the other side of the Atlantic, northwestern Europe got socked with heavy snow. For Central Canada, it meant less snow than usual.

In Vancouver, the Winter Olympics had to truck in snow for some events.

“El Ninos are predictable. North American Oscillation isn’t really. They can just happen and take us by surprise.”

Scientifically, Seager calls it “random variability.” Practically, he points out: “You can’t argue one way or the other that it’s a symptom of climate change or no climate change.”

The study examined 60 years of snowfall measurements for its perspective. Researchers tracking the pesky North Atlantic Oscillation knew it has been sliding down since 1990 and “took a real dive” last winter, he said.

Does that mean the winter of 2011 will be just as bad, or worse?

“It might be snowy next winter, but not as snowy,” said Seager. “That sounds like a safe bet.”

The full study is published in Geophysical Research Letters.

- Lesley Ciarula Taylor, Staff Reporter

Mild winter puts more sting into summer

SHUTTERSTOCK

 The warm weather we love may come back to bite us. Wait, make that sting us.

“My guess is that this year will be a very good year for wasps,” said John Huber, a researcher with Natural Resources Canada.

He means good for the wasps — not for the jam and juice-loving picnickers.

The recipe for wasp dominance started in the winter. More queen wasps die off during harsh winters or chaotic, warm-to-cold springs. During warmer winters and short, drier springs, a larger number of queens survive. That means more are ready and able to establish nests.

Nice springs also mean good food news for wasps. With more flowers in bloom and other insects abound, worker wasps have more to feed their young.

The result? Even more of them.

Huber says the type of wasps that tend to terrorize picnic tables and patios usually make their appearance at the beginning of August. Wasp presence tends to peak between mid-August and the Labour Day weekend.

But we can’t blame it all on the bugs. Human behaviour is influenced by weather, too. Brighter skies make for better picnics. The more people bring their lunch to parks, lawns and poolsides, the more people there are to notice and complain about the wasps.

Bug haters might be comforted to know that warm winters and dry springs can spell trouble for mosquitoes.

Mosquitoes emerge from standing water left over from melted snow or rain. Toronto saw less than 50 per cent of its annual average snowfall this year and February was pretty much the end of our winter. Most of the spring, with the exception of June, was unusually dry, and the April to July period has been 3 C warmer than usual.

“That’s very bad for any kind of biting fly,” Huber said.

Huber suspects mosquito populations will stay low this season. Still, he says it’s easy to guess what bugs may do but impossible to predict their behaviour with any certainty. And the bottom line is that biters and buzzers are going to be around no matter what.

“One mosquito is bad enough for most people,” Huber said. “They don’t care whether it’s a million or two million or 10 million. It’s just bad news.”

- Amy Dempsey

Photos from California's wildfires

Calm, cool weather Thursday morning dampened a wildfire that destroyed 25 buildings north of Los Angeles, but crews were prepared for afternoon winds that could kick up the flames again, a fire spokesman said.

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Dave Mills/The Associated Press

A building burns in the foothills above the town of Tehachapi, Calif., after wildfires erupted and spread quickly. (July 21, 2010)

Alex Gallardo/The Associated Press

An inmate fire crew marches near the Mojave Desert town of Tehachapi, Calif., where wildfires burned dozens of homes. (July 28, 2010)

Alex Gallardo/The Associated Press

A burned-out trailer sits near the Mojave Desert town of Tehachapi, Calif., after wildfires tore through the area. (July 28, 2010)

Sean Work/The Associated Press

Two wildfires that erupted July 27, 2010 and spread quickly in Southern California have destroyed dozens of homes including this house about five miles above Highline Road in Tehachapi and forced evacuations in remote areas of the state's Kern County.

Alex Gallardo/The Associated Press

A mule deer and her fawn make their way through a burnt-out canyon near the Mojave Desert town of Tehachapi, Calif. (July 28, 2010)

Alex Gallardo/The Associated Press

Burned vehicles litter a hillside about 16 kilometres southeast of the Mojave Desert town of Tehachapi, Calif. (July 28, 2010)

Casey Chrisitie/The Associated Press

Edward Crain walks in front of his burning home in Riverkern, Calif., July 26, 2010. Fire crews faced a 2,000 acre wildfire in the heavy vegetation in Bull Run Creek near Kernville, Calif.

Casey Christie/The Associated Press

San Bernardino firefighters with the U.S. Forest Service battle a fire in California's Sequoia National Forest. (July 27, 2010)

Casey Christie/The Associated Press

A water-dropping helicopter prepares to land in Kernville, Calif. during work on the fire in California's Sequoia National Forest. (July 27, 2010)

Alex Gallardo/The Associated Press

The glow from a wildfire can be seen through the entrance to the small community known as Old West Ranch near the Mojave Desert town of Tehachapi, Calif. as residents were evacuated. (July 27, 2010)

John W. Adkisson/The Associated Press

A firefighter watches a hotspot burn at the Kern County fire near Tehachapi, Calif., after wildfires broke out. (July 28, 2010)

Moscow's smog rivals cigarettes for damaging effects

 
The spires of the Kremlin and St. Basil's cathedral are seen through smog in Moscow on July 28, 2010. ANDREY SMIRNOV/AFP/Getty Images

The worst smog to hit Moscow in almost a decade has sent pollution 10 times above safe levels and Russia's chief lung doctor on Wednesday said residents were inhaling the equivalent of 40 cigarettes every few hours.

The city of more than 10 million has been sweltering under a record breaking heatwave exacerbated by peat fires in areas surrounding the capital. With street temperatures hitting almost daily all-time highs, the peat fire's smoke and its cinder smell have crept into sultry offices, homes and restaurants.

"The concentration of carbon monoxide and suspended particles in Moscow surged up to 10 times above the limit last night," Alexei Popikov, chief specialist at Mosekomonitoring, a city government agency overseeing air pollution, told Reuters.

Alexander Chuchalin, Russia's chief pulmonologist, told a news conference of the dangers of those kind of levels. "(The current level of) carbon monoxide damages an average of 20 percent of red blood cells in a human body which equals to the effect of two packs of cigarettes smoked within three or four hours."

He advised residents to wear masks, take antioxidants such as vitamin E, try to stay indoors as much as possible and use nebulizers to clear their lungs.

On Monday temperatures reached 37.4 C, the highest figure since records began 130 years ago. On Wednesday temperatures were 37.3 C.

Alexei Yablokov, an internationally renowned biologist who heads Russia's Green Party, said on Tuesday that air pollution caused by the smog could kill hundreds more people than usual in the Moscow region.

Moscow region chief Boris Gromov asked Prime Minister Vladimir Putin on Tuesday to allocate 25 billion roubles (US $827 million) to fight the fires around Moscow.

The smog may begin to clear on Thursday evening, when an atmospheric front moving over from the west is expected to bring rain showers to the Moscow region, Dmitry Kiktev, deputy director of the Roshydromet meteorological service told Reuters.

He said the heatwave would retreat over the weekend, with extreme temperatures falling by four or five degrees Celsius.

- Alexei Anishchuk, Reuters

10 great weather websites

When it comes to the Internet, there are hundreds of sites that offer a wide variety of tidbits, including information about everything from solar flares and climate change to forecasts and wacky weather phenomena.

The Star.com has selected a few sites that will keep you up to date when it comes to the weather both at home and abroad:

The BBC’s Weather site is without a doubt one of the world’s best, offering up temperatures and weather forecasts for both domestic and foreign consumption with sections on climate change as well as weather headlines.

The Old Farmer’s Almanac: This old-fashioned weather source now offers its forecasts online, with everything from the daily outlook and the history of weather to how to get rid of slugs in your garden and videos that discuss weather phenomena.

Then there’s the Weather Underground, which offers up everything from heat indexes to wind chills and a series of interactive maps that allows you to choose a region you’re particularly interested in.

Also available is the website for the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, where you can find information on solar flares, tsunamis, hurricanes, extreme heat and winter storms as well as weather forecasts.

The United Nations World Meteorological Organization offers information on climate change, natural hazards, tropical cyclones and severe weather, and the world’s water supply.

And of course there’s Canada’s own Weather Network and Environment Canada.

For those who are checking out the weather beyond the Earth, there’s even a weather website for space.

And if you’re looking for really cool weather pictures, go to NASA’s website and check out some of the satellite images.

Finally, if you’ve had enough of temperatures, theories on climate change, solar flares and long-range forecasts, here is, as the folks from Monty Python's Flying Circus might say, something completely different: Lena Horne’s version of "Stormy Weather."

--Debra Black, Staff Reporter

How animals deal with the heat

Amusingly named jackass penguins shower at a Tokyo zoo. KAZUHIRO NOGI/AFP/Getty Images

A raccoon lounges in a cool ditch at a Moscow zoo. ANDREY SMIRNOV/AFP/Getty Images

A bear imbibes at the zoo in St. Petersburg. AFP PHOTO/KIRILL KUDRYAVTSEV

An adult and baby meerkat indulge in a special treat at ZSL London Zoo. OLI SCARFF/Getty Images

A man, his dog and a makeshift float in the Pearl River, Guangdong province. REUTERS/Joe Tan

A baby monkey and its mom in a pool at Nanwan Monkey Island, Hainan province. REUTERS/Kevin Zhao

A polar bear at the Moscow zoo. ANDREY SMIRNOV/AFP/Getty Images

Jerry gets a flea bath at  Cyndi's Pet Care Grooming Salon in Mystic, Conn. When the temperatures increase in the summer, animals have more problems with fleas and other insects. AP photo/The Day, Abigail Pheiffer

Smog blankets Moscow during record heat

People walk along Red Square in Moscow with St. Basil's Cathedral seen through heavy smog caused by peat fires in nearby forests on July 26, 2010. Muscovites struggled to breathe on Monday and Red Square was blanketed in smoke as a record-setting heatwave that that has already ruined crops caused fires that set the area around the capital ablaze. REUTERS/Sergei Karpukhin

Moscow sweltered on Monday through its hottest day since records began 130 years ago, as temperatures hit 37.4 C, sparking peat fires that blanketed the city in smog. A heatwave has engulfed central parts of European Russia, and Siberia since June, destroying crops covering an area the size of Portugal.

Moscow's Novodevichyi Monastery is seen through a fog in downtown on Monday, July 26, 2010.  (AP Photo/Misha Japaridze)

Ships return to oil spill site as Gulf storm weakens

A worker fixes an anchor of a boat used in the Deepwater Horizon oil disaster response at a marina on Grand Isle, Louisiana on Friday ahead of Tropical Storm Bonnie. LEE CELANO/REUTERS

BP's evacuation of the Gulf of Mexico was called off Saturday and ships headed back to resume work on plugging the leaky well as remnants of Tropical Storm Bonnie breezed past.

The temporary plug that has mostly contained the oil for eight days held, and the real-time cameras that have given the world a constant view of the ruptured well apparently never stopped rolling. Dozens of ships evacuated the Gulf, but the storm had weakened to a tropical depression by the time it hit the spill site Saturday morning.

Thad Allen, the retired Coast Guard admiral running the federal government's spill response, called it “very good news.” But the setback was still significant. Work came to a standstill Wednesday and will take time to restart.

Allen said drill rig workers who spent Thursday and Friday pulling nearly 1.6 kilometres of segmented steel pipe out of the water and stacking the 12-to-15-metre sections on deck would have to reverse the process.

It could be Friday before workers can start blasting in heavy mud and cement from the top of the well, the first phase of a two-step process to seal the leaking oil well for good.

And the threat of severe weather remains. Already, another disturbance was brewing in the Caribbean, although it wasn't likely to strengthen into a tropical storm.

And the threat of severe weather remains. Hurricane season moves into its most active period in early August and extending into September. The season runs from June 1 through Nov. 30.

“We're going to be playing a cat-and mouse game for the remainder of the hurricane season,” Allen said Saturday morning.

Jane Lubchenco, administrator of the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, said waves near the well head could reach 2.4 metres by Saturday evening.

She said no significant storm surge was expected along the coast, and that the wave action could actually help dissipate oil in the water, spreading out the surface slick and breaking up tar balls.

“I think the bottom line is it's better than it might have been,” Lubchenco said.

It could be Monday before BP resumes drilling on the relief well and Wednesday before they finish installing steel casing to fortify the relief shaft, Allen said.

By Friday, workers could start blasting in heavy mud and cement from the top of the well, which could kill the well right away. BP will still finish drilling a relief tunnel — which could take up to a week — to pump in more mud and cement from nearly three kilometres under the sea floor.

Before the cap was attached and closed a week ago, the broken well spewed 355 million litres to 696 million litres into the Gulf after the BP-leased Deepwater Horizon rig exploded April 20, killing 11 workers.

As GTA braces for possible storms, a tornado may have hit southern Ontario

For the second time in three days, a severe thunderstorm watch has been issued for parts of the GTA.

Environment Canada issued the watch for Halton Hills, Oakville, Burlington and Milton just before 1 p.m. Friday, cautioning people in those regions to be on the lookout for incoming storms.

The watch extends throughout much of southwestern Ontario, as a pocket of humidity that’s been hovering since late last night continues to generate precipitation and poor visibility across the area.

“There are a couple of factors coming together,” said Geoff Coulson, a warning preparedness meteorologist for Environment Canada. “Humidity is acting as the fuel that’s driving the thunderstorm system this afternoon.”

Coulson said “a weak area of convergence,” where winds interact above the region, is also to blame for the spotty weather.

The rain produced throughout the month by this and other similar systems “has been localized,” causing some areas to “have a wetter than normal month of July” and flooding others, he said.

Severe storms in the Windsor-Essex area in southwestern Ontario may have caused a tornado to touch down near Amherstburg Friday evening.

Environment Canada issued a tornado warning at 6:35 p.m. It was downgraded to a severe thunderstorm warning about two hours later.

There is no confirmation on whether a tornado occurred, Environment Canada severe weather meteorologist Ria Alsen said.

“We had signals that there were very strong thunderstorms with some rotations,” she said, adding that some weather watchers in southwestern Ontario reported seeing funnel clouds.

“I wouldn’t discount that something happened.”

Amherstburg mayor Wayne Hurst said damage has been reported on County Rd. 10, that runs through the town, and also in the River Canard area.

“There are some downed trees and on one of our (public works) buildings, the roof has been damaged to the degree that it’s allowing water to come in,” he said.

Hurst has not heard reports of injuries in the town of 20,000.

“In daylight tomorrow it will be more evident to what extent the damage was.”

Communities in the extreme southwest part of Ontario have issued extreme heat alerts, with humidex values in London and Middlesex expected to rise above 40 C Friday afternoon.

The hot, steamy, wet weather is anticipated to last until late Saturday, before the clouds break to reveal sunny skies for Sunday.

From Teri Pecoskie and Gloria Er-Chua, staff reporters

Waterloo waterlogged

Friday got off to a soggy start in Waterloo Region as more than 33 mm of rain fell in under 12 hours, overwhelming storm sewers, streams and the patience of pedestrians and drivers.

Several roads and parking lots filled up quickly with water and left some motorists stranded with disabled vehicles.

Waterloo Regional Police said Guelph St. at Sereda Rd. flooded under the bridge.

Roads in several other neighbourhoods also flooded.

Grand River Conservation Authority staff were checking on Laurel and Strasburg creeks.

The Grand River wasn’t expected to burst its banks – it’s July and river levels are already low. But the GRCA is planning to release more water from its reservoirs this weekend.

That will mean higher-than-normal levels in the waterway for this time of year.

“Fly fisherman who like to get out into the water should be aware that the flows will be higher,” said Dave Schultz, spokesperson for the authority.

“Canoeists should check carefully what the flows are and be aware, because if you’re used to going out in July when the river is usually quite sedate, you might find it quite active.”

Police also urged parents to monitor their children carefully and keep them away from riverbanks and streams.

Waterloo Region Record Staff Photos and Story