White Christmas for Toronto? Odds are about 50-50

Christie Pits Park after the first significant snowfall in Toronto,  November 27, 2010. THE CANADIAN PRESS/Darren Calabrese

As soon as the calendar hits Dec. 1, the phone calls to David Phillips’ office begin to snowball.

Across the country, in taverns and restaurants, people start laying down bets on whether there will be a white Christmas.

And they want the senior climatologist with Environment Canada to play oddsmaker.

However, since Christmas is still more than three weeks away and the detailed Environment Canada forecast looks out only seven days, Phillips is somewhat handicapped.

The long-range model for December, released Tuesday morning, has some positive signs. It suggests normal to below normal temperatures for the month and normal amounts of precipitation, which will outdo last year’s warmer December when we had a green Christmas.

With colder air moving in over the next two weeks, Phillips likes the chances of snow falling in Toronto before Christmas, but can’t say for sure it would last.

“It increases the odds a little, but I would only bet a loonie or two on a white Christmas,” he said.

Even that small encouragement would warm the hearts of many because, as Phillips says, “even people who hate snow love snow on Christmas Day.”

But when you consider the historical data, the odds are stacked against Toronto. If you thought there were more white Christmases in the 1960s and 1970s, you are right.

Toronto’s chances of having a white Christmas then were 63 per cent. With the onset of global warming, those odds have fallen to 55 per cent. And it drops further to 47 per cent if you live south of Highway 401.

A more recent snapshot over the last 20 years shows even less chance of a white Christmas. Those odds are 42 per cent north of the 401 and 37 per cent in the downtown area.

Environment Canada defines a white Christmas as having at least two centimetres of snow on the ground at 7 a.m. on Dec. 25, which would show more snow than grass.

The last white Christmas in Toronto was 2008 with 31 centimetres of snow on the ground. It was not only a white Christmas, but what Phillips terms “a perfect Christmas” with snow also in the air, giving the day that “Christmas card look.”

That year also marked the first time since 1955, when this type of record-keeping began, that the whole country had a white Christmas.

Some Canadian cities never have to go through this “crapshoot,” as Phillips calls it. Cities with a 100 per cent chance of having a white Christmas include Kenora, Yellowknife, Whitehorse and Goose Bay, Labrador.

Timmins, Winnipeg and Quebec City come close at a 98 per cent, with Ottawa at 82 per cent and Montreal at 76 per cent. London comes in at 71 per cent.

For those who live in Vancouver and Victoria, there’s barely a snowball’s chance in hell. Their odds are only 11 per cent.

- Curtis Rush Staff Reporter

Heavy rain expected across Ontario

People wait for a bus in the early morning rain at Carlaw  and Eastern Aves. in Toronto on Tuesday. (RICHARD LAUTENS/THE TORONTO STAR)

Water will fall and waters will rise in the GTA over the next 24 hours.

The Toronto and Region Conservation Authority has issued a high water safety bulletin due to the rainfall that is expected to fall in the region Tuesday.

Up to 40 mm of rain could fall in the GTA, according to Peter Kimbell, a meteorologist with Environment Canada. This will increase water levels in rivers and streams, which will cause fast-flowing water and dangerous conditions, according to the conservation authority.

The lower Don River, near Bayview Ave. and Pottery Rd and south to Lake Ontario, has long been a flood risk, according to Ryan Ness, the chief flood duty officer at the conservation authority.

“The roads tend to flood once a year and is one of our most vulnerable locations,” Ness said.

The bulk of the rain will fall overnight with winds gusting up to 50 km/h, but precipitation is expected to begin around 1 p.m.

“It will really pick up in intensity later tonight,” Kimbell said.

The high water safety bulletin will be in effect until Wednesday.

The rain is a result of a large low pressure system that has picked up moisture from the Gulf of Mexico. The storm is tracking northeast across Lake Superior and will continue on into northeastern Ontario.

Rainfall could exceed 50 mm in Eastern Ontario. There has been 51 mm of rain at Pearson Airport through the month of November. The upshot of all the rain is that there’s only been trace amounts of snow, well below the usual snowfall of 7.6 cm in November, Kimbell said.

A strong southeasterly wind will also bring with it warmer than usual temperatures: temperatures are expected to reach a balmy high of 12C in Toronto later Tuesday. Normal temperatures for this time of year are 4C.

A cold front is following the warm, wet front, which will sweep across the province, plunging the thermometer by Tuesday night to a low of 2C in Toronto. Rainfall is expected to slow in the region by Wednesday morning, but flurries may make an appearance in Toronto on Thursday.

- Liam Casey, Toronto Star

Wintry weather hampers U.K. travel

Soldiers of the Life Guards ride through the snow on the Mall in London on Nov. 30, 2010. An early winter freeze-up has caused travel chaos across Britain with air and rail passengers as well as motorists all struggling to complete their journeys. (AP Photo/Sang Tan)

LONDON - People across Britain are spending the week coping with falling temperatures and drifting snow.

Mild weather expected to last until Wednesday

Monday’s unseasonably mild temperatures will last until Wednesday afternoon, according to Geoff Coulson, a meteorologist with Environment Canada.

The agency released a special report Monday for southwestern Ontario covering Windsor to Ottawa, including the GTA.

The mild weather is due to a developing low pressure system currently in the U.S. southwest.

The temperature around 2 p.m. today hit 7C, three degrees higher than the normal average of 4C for this time of the year, Coulson says.

A high of 10C is expected for Tuesday.

But bring your umbrella to work tomorrow, Coulson says.

In the wake of the American weather system, heavy rainfall and gusty winds are expected for much of the Toronto region, beginning in the early morning hours. Coulson expects up to 25 mm of rain, coupled with south winds gusting to 50 km/h. Both will taper off by the afternoon.

By Wednesday, temperatures are expected to drop down to 3C with a 60 per cent chance of flurries.

- Lorianna De Giorgio, Staff Reporter

Blast of winter to be short-lived

Snow today, gone tomorrow.

Downtown Toronto was finally covered in a soft white blanket as flurries came down Saturday morning. But the snow, between one and two centimetres, didn't last long on the ground.

“We’re forecasting the sun to come out and the temperature to hover about zero, so the snow will melt pretty quickly,” said meteorologist Mitch Meredith on Saturday morning.

The rest of Ontario is experiencing more winter weather. Overnight snow squalls left about 20 centimetres of snow in Muskoka, and about five centimetres in Newmarket, Aurora and Barrie – and that snow should stay in the ground for the time being.

The winds, gusting at 60 kilometres per hour in the early morning, are forecasted to die down by the afternoon.

The OPP reported a serious collision in Collingwood with Highway 26 is closed from Fairgrounds Rd. to Poplar Side Road. There have been a number of minor collisions in the GTA with the slippery road conditions.

But Old Man Winter hasn’t grabbed onto Ontario just yet.

Meredith said a ridge of high pressure will clear the snow squalls out of the province for most of the next week.

Southwestern Ontario and Toronto will warm up, with temperatures forecasted in the mid-teens. The normal for this time of the year is around four degrees Celsius.

“Even the 20 centimetres of snow in Muskoka should melt,” Meredith said, with the high of 10 degrees on Tuesday.

“It’s going to be real rollercoaster,” Meredith said.

Tamara Baluja

Old Man Winter hits cottage country and parts of the GTA

The first big snow fall already hit cottage country by Friday afternoon, as the province braces for Old Man Winter.

Up to five centimetres of snow fell by Friday evening in the Muskoka and Parry Sound areas, where 15 to 30 centimetres are expected by Saturday night.

“It is not the first snow squall of the season, but it’s the first weather warning, said Rob Kuhn, Severe Weather Meteorologist from Environment Canada. “More than 15 centimetres are expected in 12 hours.”

The GTA is in the clear for now, but snow flurries fell with winds predicted to reach more than 80 kilometres an hour.

The snow flurries come with winds expected to reach more than 80 kilometres an hour.

The GTA will see a high of 6C on Saturday and 4C on Sunday, said Geoff Coulson of Environment Canada.

“The way things seem to be shaping up for December, January and February for our area is that temperatures will be closer to seasonal normal,” he said.

Last year, Pearson airport only received about 52 centimetres of snow. Average winter snowfall usually falls around the 115-centimetre mark.

The OPP reported several small collisions early Friday morning near Highway 11 and Highway 400. The overnight rain rapidly froze, causing hazardous conditions on the roads.

OPP Sgt. Dave Woodford said drivers tend to drive the same no matter what the conditions are like. He urges motorists to remain calm if they find themselves in a slippery situation.

“One of the most common things drivers do is jam on their brakes and grab their steering wheels. Once you apply the brakes, you actually lose control of your vehicle and you’re in the skidding motion,” he said.

Woodford recommends motorists ease up on the accelerator, place two hands on the steering wheel and look at where they want to go.

“By easing up on the accelerator and not applying the brakes, you can easily gain control of your vehicle,” he said. “But look where you want to go and steer to where you want to go.”

“Not to the ditch side,” he added. With files from Tamara Baluja and The Canadian Press

Liem Vu and Tamara Baluja, Staff Reporters

With files from The Canadian Press

Snow squalls to batter cottage country

A snow squall watch has been issued for Barrie, Orillia, Midland, Muskoka and Parry Sound, with Environment Canada predicting 30 to 40 centimetres of snow by Friday night.

The snow is expected to arrive with wind gusting to 80 km/h.

Environment Canada also issued a flash freeze warning for the northern outskirts of the GTA Friday morning. The quick drop in temperatures after last night's rain means there may be ice on some roads.

The warning was for Newmarket, Georgina, Uxbridge, and the northern parts of York and Durham regions.

Ontario Provincial Police reported several small collisions early Friday morning near Highway 11 and Highway 400. The overnight rain rapidly freezing caused hazardous conditions on the roads.

- Tamara Baluja, Staff Reporter

Bring on winter, the city is ready

With 600 snow plows, 300 sidewalk plows, 200 salt trucks and an army of 1,600 staff, the city can handle the heavier-than-usual amount of snow expected this winter, says Gary Welsh, Toronto’s general manager of transportation services.

The snow clearing budget of $85 million is about the same as last season and while some costs such as wages have gone up, with mayor-elect Rob Ford preaching austerity, Welsh says efficiencies have been found.

“We’ve redesigned some of our plow routes, we’re making it more efficient to spread salt and we’re actually trying to use less salt so we think there’s efficiencies that we’ve gained that will satisfy the mayor,” said Welsh.

“The level of service has improved and at the same time we’ve saved money.”

If it’s a particularly snowy winter, there is a reserve fund of about $20 million available from winters like last season, when only about 50 cm of snow fell, resulting in budget savings.

An average winter in Toronto brings about 130 cm of snowfall.

“We have sufficient money now if we do get a very extreme winter we have a winter maintenance reserve available so that we can actually tap into that without actually asking council for additional funds," he said.

This year the city has a new snow disposal site in Etobicoke, off Islington Ave., two new snow melters and new sanding equipment to salt bus stops, all of which add efficiencies to snow clearing.

“In the past we’ve used three staff to clear bus stops and spread salt on it. Now with this piece of equipment we can do it with one,” he said.

Contractors will be expected to get out in a more timely manner and complete their routes more quickly, while property owners are still required by bylaw to clear the snow off sidewalks.

“Failure to clear the snow within 12 hours could result in a fine of $125. We have inspectors out during and after snowstorms ensuring that the sidewalks are kept safe for pedestrians,” he said.

-Alex Horkay

Photos: Britain gets an early taste of winter

A woman walks past a snowman in Sutton-In-Whitestonecliffe, northern England, Nov.25, 2010. Britain shivered in sub-zero temperatures on Thursday as snow fell unseasonably early, with more wintry weather on the way. Up to 10cm of snow settled in northern Scotland and northeast England overnight, the earliest major snowfall in 17 years. (Nigel Roddis/REUTERS)

Storms hamper U.S. holiday travel

 

A planned boycott of airport security scanners was a bust, but holiday travelers in the western U.S. had to contend with a chaotic mix of snow, sleet and ice.

The powerful storm system closed roads and delayed flights from Anchorage to Salt Lake City, and promised to bring messy wintery weather to much of the Dakotas on Thanksgiving Day. Freezing rain glazed roads across the Midwest, and at least three traffic deaths in Iowa were blamed on the weather.