Southwestern U.S. headed for a ‘perpetual drought’

A family looks on as a dust storm converges on downtown Phoenix, July 5, 2011. (Mark J. Rebilas/US PRESSWIRE)

A 160-kilometre wide dust storm, corn shrivelling in Georgia fields and Texas blackouts are all harbingers of an unstoppable force geophysicists call "perpetual drought."

At least the terrible Dust Bowl years of the 1930s in North America ended, Dr. Richard Seager told the Toronto Star on Thursday. This one won’t.

The U.S. Drought Monitor computer tracking tags the parched conditions in Texas and Oklahoma as an extraordinary drought, with the rest of the stretch from Arizona to Florida not much better.

Losses in Texas alone, to cattle and wheat, could reach $3 billion U.S., state officials said. Rainfall in Oklahoma is 28 per cent of normal.

In parts of Arizona, it’s half of what it should be. The July 5 dust storm, the worst in 30 years, shut down Phoenix Sky Harbour International Airport and coated the city in a crust of dirt.

All 254 counties of Texas have been declared natural disaster areas. In some place, salt buildup on power lines not swept away by rain has caused blackouts.

“The current drought has been running for less than a year,” said Seager of the Earth Institute at Columbia University. The cyclical arrival of the La Niña weather pattern brought it and will eventually move on.

But more ominous and catastrophic is the permanent spike in temperatures that is making southwestern North American too feeble to bounce back.

“Beyond the year-to-year variability, the entire region from California to the southern plains is getting dryer. It may not be more severe than what we have now, but it will be more persistent,” Seager said.

By the middle of this century, he said, the drought state of the southern United States will be permanent.

“There will still be wet years. There will be dry years. But the net flux, which supplies the moisture to the soil, is going to reduce from 20 to 40 per cent.”

Unlike the Dirty Thirties drought, which lasted seven years, the decade-long drought in the 1950s or even the “megadroughts” of the 13^th and 16^th centuries — all of them La Niña phenomena — this one is triggered by man-made gases.

“As long as the carbon dioxide in the atmosphere stays where it is, we have a new equilibrium,” said Seager.

Even if all CO² emissions dropped to zero overnight “significant drying would still occur.”

And while farmers have compensated for dry spells since the 1930s with irrigation, it’s an expensive and gasoline-burning way to spread water around.

“As the century progresses, it will be harder and harder to keep the productivity up.”

- Lesley Ciarula Taylor, Staff Reporter

Temperatures are soaring, so why no heat alert?

Toronto has been sweltering for the past couple of weeks with no reprieve in sight, but the city has yet to issue an official heat alert.

George Matsumura, a spokesperson for Toronto Public Health, said there are a number of factors besides the heat to consider when deciding whether to issue a heat alert.

Those factors include wind speed, dew point, humidity and cloud cover, as well as the number of consecutive hot days.

Just because it’s 39C outside doesn’t mean an alert will be issued. If it’s 39C, there’s no wind, and there is a “humid, moist, tropical air mass,” though, it is likely that there will be an official alert.

“It’s not a simple thing,” he said.

Matsumura said the key factor in a heat alert is mortality. When it’s difficult to breathe outside due to heat and humidity, older people and small children, as well as others with health concerns like diabetes, can be in serious danger.

While there have been no official alerts this month, there hasn’t been much of a break from the heat so far this summer. Toronto has had 4 mm of rain this month, and July generally gets about 74 mm on average, said Peter Kimbell with Environment Canada.

“It’s been almost two and a half weeks now with very little rain, so the question becomes ‘How long can we go with very little rain?’”

He said there might be a chance of some rain Sunday or Monday, but can’t say so for sure.

This hot dry weather makes a lot of people grumble about heat waves. The city’s term for heat waves is “extreme heat alert,” of which there have been none so far this year. There were 11 last year, compared with only two in 2009.

“We don’t have a very well-defined criteria for a heat wave,” Kimbell said.

“There are varying definitions. The best I can say is it’s going to be sunny and warm the next few days with a good bout of heat and uncomfortable conditions this weekend. Before then we’ll have more pleasant weather where we can sleep at night — lows will be 15, 16, 17 degrees.”

Kimbell added that there is no real explanation for why heat waves happen, other than to say:

“Weather is inherently variable.”

 

Last year there were 11 extreme heat alerts, compared with only two in 2009.

--Sarah Ratchford, Staff Reporter

Humid start to a hot, dry week

Toronto is a week away from the “dog days” of summer but we’re already experiencing the heat.

“We really need some rain,” said Dave Phillips, senior climatologist at Environment Canada.

In the last 17 days, Toronto has had only 6 mm of rain when we normally get 41 mm at this time of the year, he said.

“We’re really down and you can see it. The grass looks more like hay right now.”

The only moisture we’re going to see this week is on Monday, which will be a hot and sticky day with the humidex in the high 30s, Phillips said.

But the good news is that we’ll see winds of 20 km/h today gusting to 40 km/h in the afternoon, which will help evaporate some of the moisture from our skin, he said.

There is also a 60 per cent chance of showers and thunderstorms this afternoon that will alleviate some of the heat, he said.

But the rest of the week will be dry and hot with temperatures in the high 20s and low 30s.

“It’s going to be a delightful week. Is anyone really complaining?”

The long-term forecast includes warmer than normal temperatures and below average levels of precipitation

Even though we need the rain, Phillips says people are afraid to jinx the sunny weather.

“There’s a little nervousness given the wet spring,” he said.

A similar heat wave is hitting the United States this week in the Midwest, the Plains and the Southeast.

Fifteen states are under heat advisories as record temperatures hit as high as 44 C.

-- Amanda Kwan, Staff Reporter

Record heat in U.K.; France swelters

Britain recorded the hottest day of the year so far on Sunday, with temperatures hitting 32 C.

Here's a look at how a few people were coping:

Locals cool off in the fountains of Royal Festival Hall in London June 27, 2011. Britain's Met Office issued its first hot weather health alert of the summer, as temperatures soared towards 32C. (Olivia Harris/Reuters)

Children play in a fountain near the Tower of London. (Peter Macdiarmid/Getty Images)

At Trafalgar Square. (Akira Suemori/AP photo)

People enjoy the hot weather at the beach, on the coast of South Shields, England, Monday, June 27, 2011. (AP Photo/Scott Heppell)

But if it was hot in England, it was scorching in Paris, with temperatures hitting 35 C.:

People cool off in fountains in front of the Eiffel Tower on Monday, June 27, 2011 as temperatures in Paris hit 35 C. (THOMAS SAMSON/AFP/Getty Images)

A Parisian and his dog cool off in the Trocadero fountain on Monday. (Michel Euler/ AP Photo)

People sunbathe near the Tuileries garden fountains on Monday. (Jacques Brinon/ AP Photo)

People dangle their feet in the Tuileries fountain on Monday. (Jacques Brinon/AP Photo)

Hot enough for ya? Today's heat set record

The Star's Randy Risling describes how to construct an air-conditioner for $20.

As predicted, today’s scorching heat in Toronto reached a record-breaking temperature of 32.6 C.

The daily record for June 8 was 32.2 C, set in 1950 and 1959. The humidex is sitting at 41 on the hottest day of the year, according to Environment Canada.

A heat alert and humidex advisory is in effect for the GTA. And there are still a few hours to go, as temperatures should peak at 34 C later in the afternoon, around 4 p.m., said Dave Phillips, senior climatologist at Environment Canada.

• Photos: The heat is on

Wednesday’s humidex could even reach 42 or 43. The UV index is 8, or very high. Experts are warning this kind of heat can cause health problems such as cramps, exhaustion, heat stroke and difficulty breathing.

Toronto's medical officer of health has issued a heat alert for the city, warning the heat can be dangerous, even deadly, for certain parts of the population.

Those at risk, including the very young, the elderly and those with chronic conditions are encouraged to stay out of the sun, seek air-conditioned spaces or visit one of Toronto's public cooling spaces to beat the heat.

Wednesday will likely be the hottest day of the year, following the hottest night so far.

Tuesday night the temperature stayed around 20 C, which Phillips called “brutal” for sleeping. But the heat wave won’t last long, Phillips said, after a cold front moves in over night, bringing a risk of rain showers to cool things off.

On Thursday, Toronto can expect a high of just 24 C, closer to the norm for this time of year.

For today, experts are advising people to stay out of the direct sun, drink a lot of water, avoid working or exercising intensely outside if possible, and take frequent breaks if necessary.

Environment Canada also reminds people to take special care to ensure that pets have plenty of water, are well-protected from the heat, and are not left in hot cars.

Though parts of southwestern Ontario have been issued a smog advisory, the breeze in Toronto is keeping air quality levels good, Phillips said.

• Send us your pictures of today's heat in Toronto! Email them to webmaster@thestar.ca or tweet your picture using the hashtag #hotTO or post to our Flickr pool.l

--Zoe McKnight, Staff Reporter, with files from Amanda Kwan

Candace Correia and Melissa Jackson enjoy the sun at Sugar Beach on June 8, 2011 (CARLOS OSORIO/TORONTO STAR)

A cyclist rides along a trail at Coronation Park on June 8, 2011 (CARLOS OSORIO/TORONTO STAR)

Thunderstorms could break muggy weather

Summer weather: Tanya Orova, Christina Marcos, Pablo Sepulveda and Roxolana Popovitch were loving the hot weather down on the beach by Parkside and Lakeshore on Monday. (VINCE TALOTTA/TORONTO STAR)

Tuesday’s summer weather looks like nothing more than a summer teaser.

In the GTA, the temperature may reach up to 32 C today, though it may feel more like a sweltering 41 C.

As a result, the city of Toronto has issued its first heat alert of the year, which will be in effect until further notice. Environment Canada has also issued a humidex advisory again for Tuesday, from Windsor, Sarnia and the Golden Horseshoe to Ottawa and Cornwall and north to Algonquin and Grey-Bruce.

If the mercury does hit 32 C, today’s heat will be record-breaking, said Geoff Coulson, meteorologist at Environment Canada. The previous record was set in 1944, with a high of 31.1 C.

But don’t get used to the sticky weather. Coulson said the rest of the week will feature more typical weather.

“We have a cold front that’s going to go through the area tonight, and in the wake of that cold front on Wednesday, we’re expecting temperatures to come back down to more seasonal values,” he said.

Wednesday’s high temperature will be around 24 C, Coulson said. As well, the cold front, which is coming from the American Midwest, may bring a thunderstorm to the GTA later today.

Part of the excitement about the hot weather may stem from this May’s miserable weather. A typical spring, Coulson said, would probably have at least a few muggy days.

“The fact that it has been so dreary for a lot of people – a lot of showers, a lot of clouds – this day has kind of stood out as a shining beacon of what summer may hold for us,” he said.

-- Aleysha Haniff, Staff Reporter

Toronto forecast: Summer's 'dry run'

“Finally, it’s arrived.”

The sunshine, that is.

“We went almost from slush to sweat,” said Dave Phillips, senior climatologist at Environment Canada. “We came out of the wettest, coolest springs in a long time.”

Toronto will see seven days in a row of above-average temperatures, Phillips said.

Today’s high expected to hit 26 C, four degrees warmer than the average for this time of the year in Toronto.

The temperature will rise to 30 C on Tuesday, dipping to 23 C on Wednesday and 24 C on Thursday as the air mass cools off, Phillips said.

After a cloudy Friday, Torontonians can expect a warm and sunny weekend at 26 C.

The last time we’ve seen temperatures above 30 was Sept. 24, according to Phillips.

“There’s a collective, ‘Yippee!’ that’s taking place across the GTA. This may very well be the dry run of what our summer will be,” he said.

But Environment Canada has issued a humidity advisory for the region, which will experience some muggy weather caused by warm air flowing from the Gulf of Mexico, Phillips said.

This summer is shaping up to be warmer than average, and it is possible Toronto will get more storms, but Phillips says it’s not something climatologists can forecast.  

 “When you have warmer than normal summers, you can get severe weather.”

Ontario, on average, gets about 12 tornadoes a year. Last year we had 11 and 28 the year before.

Toronto also gets hit by lightning more than any other city in Canada.

“Summer comes with a warning label: enjoy but it can be severe,” he said.

But Phillips says we won’t see the kind of destructive tornadoes that ravished the American midwest in Ontario.

In the meantime, get outdoors and enjoy the warm weather while it lasts.

“Don’t procrastinate because winter will be here sooner than we want it to be. This is the great exodus for Canadians.”

--Amanda Khan, Staff Reporter

Heat is on ... in Europe

Here a  few more pcitures of people enjoying the warmth in Europe, while we feel the chill here.

A couple lie by the River Thames on April 7, 2011 in Windsor, England. Much of Britain continues to enjoy unseasonably warm weather, recording the hottest day of the year so far yesterday, with temperatures reaching 22 C. (Photo by Dan Kitwood/Getty Images)

Three mothers push prams down the Long Walk on April 7, 2011 in Windsor, England. (Dan Kitwood/Getty Images

People enjoy the sunny sprinng weather at the Tuileries garden on April 7, 2011 in Paris. (MIGUEL MEDINA/AFP/Getty Images)

People lunch on the beach of Nice, southern France, Thursday, April. 7 , 2011. Temperatures rose to 24 C. (Lionel Cironneau/AP photo)

A Japanese cherry tree stands in full bloom on April 7, 2011 in Potsdam, eastern Germany. Spring has arrived in northern parts of the country, bringing sun and temperatures up to 20 C. (PATRICK PLEUL/AFP/Getty Images)

Two women lie on a flower-covered lawn in Zurich  on  April 7, 2011. (Arnd Wiegmann/REUTERS)

Indian summer, but where's the sun?

Environment Canada says Toronto is in for some warmer-than-seasonal weather in the coming days, with temperatures rising as high as 21 C Tuesday.

After various frost warnings for the GTA and the layer-inducing temperatures last week, this is a welcome change for the city.

 “I think the way things are going this may be our little bout of Indian summer,” said Geoff Coulson, meteorologist with Environment Canada.

The missing ingredient for a true Indian summer?

Sunshine.

Although temperatures will be high, Toronto will be plagued with showers and thunderstorms.

“Wednesday is really the nicest day in terms of combining milder-than-normal temperature as well as sunshine,” said Coulson.

The normal daytime high for this week should be around 11 C, according to Coulson, but an air flow from the American Deep South is bringing a warm air mass to the city, as well as lots of fog.

The weather is expected to break down starting Thursday, as temperatures dip to 9 C.

--Noel Grzetic, Staff Reporter

Why you can look forward to more stormy weather

Toronto had another brush with severe weather Sunday, with warnings for funnel clouds, torrential rain, hail and damaging winds issued across the southern part of the province.

While the city was for the most part spared the effects of the frightening forecast, not everyone made it out unscathed.

A 22-year-old man remains in serious condition after he was struck by lightning Sunday afternoon as he played football near Victoria Park Ave. and Gerrard St. North of the city, in King Township, a home went up in flames after it was hit by a bolt of lightning.

Geoff Coulson, a warning preparedness meteorologist for Environment Canada, said he’s noticed a spike in storm activity this summer, largely due to the hot, hazy temperatures rolling into town.

“Year-to-year, about 10 people are killed and between 100 and 150 injured by lightning,” he said. “Any thunderstorm, by definition, has lightning associated with it and it can be deadly . . . When the sky roars, get indoors.”

According to Coulson, one of the main ingredients for this summer’s active weather is the heat and humidity that Torontonians have been experiencing – and complaining about. The city has been experiencing average temperatures significantly higher than normal every month this summer, he said.

In May, for instance, values taken from Pearson Airport show the average temperature as 16 C, more than 3 degrees above the normal average of 12.9 C. In June, July and August, the temperature has also topped out well above the normal values.

“These numbers won’t surprise anybody,” Coulson said. “Since January, we’ve known conditions will be warmer than normal.”

Torontonians might also be feeling the heat more this year because it’s not cooling off as much as it typically does in the overnight hours.

“It makes it difficult for people who have problems in this kind of weather – they’re just not getting the relief,” he said.

The perpetually steamy conditions are doing more than making people uncomfortable – they’re also generating stormy conditions that have led to an abundance of tornado activity across the province.

“We’ve had 10 tornados so far this summer in Ontario,” Coulson said. “The average is 11 per season, which runs from April until first week of October. There’s a good chance we’ll beat that average.”

“The way things stand, we have another six weeks of potential for damaging storms.”

This blustery weather – the sort that generates tornado activity – is largely dependent on what currents of air are doing within a storm system.

As humidity is sucked in by an updraft, hail and snow are evaporated, which accelerates the speed of the downward winds. That quickening movement is what we typically associate with the rain and high winds that characterize summer storms that seem to come out of nowhere, Coulson said.

“Late in the day the sky really darkens up and that’s usually when some of these more intense storms come through.”

Luckily for city dwellers, some relief will come this week with a quiet forecast boasting temperatures in the mid-20s and low levels of humidity.

--Teri Pecoskie, Staff Reporter